G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ndeki \u2018Adalar Krizi\u2019nde g\u00f6zler bu b\u00f6lgede hak iddias\u0131nda bulunan \u00c7in ile di\u011fer \u00fclkeler \u00fczerinde oluyor. \u00c7in\u2019in yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Tayvan, Brunei, Filipinler, Vietnam ve Malezya\u2019n\u0131n da hak iddias\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015fu, bir anlamda \u00e7o\u011ful \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ancak \u00f6zellikle 2011 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana \u00c7in ve di\u011ferleri \u015feklinde g\u00fcndeme getirilen sorunun b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinde nas\u0131l alg\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda kafalar\u0131n kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu anlamda, Tayvan d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, di\u011fer d\u00f6rt \u00fclkenin ASEAN \u00fcye \u00fclkeleri olmas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu bu Birlik i\u00e7erisinde i\u015fin ciddiyetini ortaya koyuyor. D\u00fcnya devi olma yolunda ciddi ad\u0131mlar atan \u00c7in\u2019in i\u00e7inden \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6lgede kom\u015fular\u0131yla sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 ili\u015fki kuramamas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck hedefleriyle \u00e7eli\u015fti\u011fi konusu s\u0131kl\u0131kla dile getiriliyor. \u00c7in\u2019in sergiledi\u011fi bu yakla\u015f\u0131m bir kenara, 1967 y\u0131l\u0131nda kurulan ASEAN\u2019\u0131n \u00c7inle ili\u015fkilerinde nas\u0131l bir siyasi rota izleyece\u011fi konusundaki belirsizlikler s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
ASEAN, kurulu\u015fundan bu yana ekonomik y\u00f6nelimiyle dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Bunun en son g\u00f6stergesi 2015 y\u0131l\u0131ndan Ekonomik Birlik karar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 olacak. Bununla birlikte, ASEAN d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki b\u00f6lgesel geli\u015fmeler, son d\u00f6nemde baz\u0131 Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerin b\u00f6lgeye y\u00f6nelik yeni perspektifleri Birli\u011fin siyasi niteli\u011fiyle de \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 zorunlu k\u0131l\u0131yor. Ancak bu y\u00f6nde \u00fcye \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda birlikten bahsetmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Bu durum, ASEAN\u2019\u0131n siyasi bir i\u00e7eri\u011fi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. Ancak, G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ndeki adalar\/k\u0131ta sahanl\u0131klar\u0131 problemleri ASEAN \u00fcye \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda dahi sorunun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcne dair ciddi bir inisiyatifin geli\u015ftirilmedi\u011fi bir s\u00fcre\u00e7ten bahsediyoruz. ASEAN\u2019\u0131n, \u00fcyeleri aras\u0131nda birbiriyle a\u00e7\u0131k bir sava\u015f halinin bug\u00fcne kadar ya\u015fanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir blok oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, \u00fcye \u00fclkelerin benzer teritoryal iddialar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme kavu\u015fturma noktas\u0131nda \u2018sab\u0131rl\u0131\u2019 olduklar\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir. Ancak \u00fcye \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011fa konu olan Adalar b\u00f6lgesine dair bir ortak fikrin \u00fcretilememesi, bu b\u00f6lgede hak iddias\u0131n\u0131 fiziki egemenlik alan\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrme \u00e7abas\u0131ndaki \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 kapsaml\u0131 politikalar geli\u015ftirilmesini de engelliyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6nem ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fcten Myanmar\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkenti Nay Pyi Taw\u2019da 10-11 May\u0131s tarihlerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen 24. ASEAN Zirvesi\u2019ne G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019nde Vietnam ve Filipinler\u2019in zirveden sadece g\u00fcnler \u00f6nce \u00c7in\u2019le \u2018s\u0131cak kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmalar\u0131\u2019 damgas\u0131n\u0131 vurdu. Bu iki \u00fclkenin, di\u011fer sekiz \u00fcye \u00fclke otoritelerine y\u00f6nelik lobi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekerken, Zirve sonras\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanan Nay Pyi Taw Bildirgesi\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc maddesinde anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011fa konu olan Adalar b\u00f6lgesindeki geli\u015fmelere atfen art\u0131k bir kli\u015fe halini alm\u0131\u015f olan \u201cAnla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131n bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l \u00e7er\u00e7evede \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlenmesi\u201d maddesinde \u00c7in a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a hedef g\u00f6sterilmiyor. Bu madde \u00f6rne\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, \u00c7in\u2019e referans yapan ifadelere yer verilmemesi ASEAN\u2019\u0131n siyasi kimli\u011finin h\u00e2l\u00e2 premat\u00fcre oldu\u011funun delilidir.\u00a0 Bu anlamda, 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda Kambo\u00e7ya\u2019 d\u00f6nem ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda da Phnom Penh\u2019de yap\u0131lan toplant\u0131da birli\u011fin tarihinde ilk defa sonu\u00e7 bildirgesinin yay\u0131nlanamamas\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019in Kambo\u00e7ya ile ili\u015fkileri yatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 herkesin ortak kan\u0131s\u0131yd\u0131. Bu geli\u015fme ASEAN\u2019\u0131n siyasi bir blok ol\/a\/mad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n da g\u00f6stergesiydi. Kimi g\u00f6zlemcilern Kambo\u00e7ya\u2019n\u0131n manip\u00fclasyonunun ge\u00e7i\u015ftirildi\u011fini ileri s\u00fcrse de, son \u00f6rnekte oldu\u011fu gibi \u00fcye \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 kararl\u0131 bir duru\u015ftan s\u00f6z edilemiyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda ASEAN \u00fcye \u00fclkelerinin birli\u011fe siyasi bir nitelik kazand\u0131rma konusundaki zaafiyeti, ba\u015fta kendi aralar\u0131ndaki sorunlar\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan b\u00f6lgesel ve de m\u00fcmk\u00fcnse k\u00fcresel geli\u015fmelerde siyasi tav\u0131r alabilecek yap\u0131ya b\u00fcr\u00fcnmedi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ASEAN\u2019\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmsemek veya olumsuzlamak anlam\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131yor elbette. Bununla birlikte, Birlik i\u00e7erisinde siyaset yapma bi\u00e7iminin pek \u00e7ok k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 hatlarla \u00e7evrili olu\u015fu, Birli\u011fin yap\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir sorun olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu anlamda, Birli\u011fin, h\u00e2l\u00e2 So\u011fuk Sava\u015f d\u00f6nemi psikolojisinden kurtulamam\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu iddia etmek yanl\u0131\u015f olmaz. Bu eksiklik nedeniyledir ki, ABD ve AB\u2019nin G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi sorunu ba\u011flam\u0131nda referans yap\u0131lan ve uluslararas\u0131 standartlara at\u0131fta bulunulan \u201cEylem Kurallar\u0131\u201d (Code of Conduct) olgusu \u015fu ana kadar \u00c7in\u2019li yetkililerin hi\u00e7 mi hi\u00e7 ilgisini \u00e7ekmiyor. B\u00f6lge denizlerinde uyulaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131lan kurallar b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn ilk defa 1992\u2019de g\u00fcndeme getirilmesine ve 2002 y\u0131l\u0131nda Deklarasyon ilan edilmesine ra\u011fmen, \u00c7in ile ASEAN aras\u0131ndaki ilk g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere 2013 y\u0131l\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda ba\u015flanabilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
S\u00f6z konusu Adalar b\u00f6lgesinde, ASEAN\u2019a \u00fcye d\u00f6rt \u00fclke ile anla\u015fmazl\u0131k ya\u015fayan \u00c7in\u2019in, bu \u00fclkeleri ASEAN b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc i\u00e7erisinde de\u011fil, birbirinden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u00fclkeler s\u0131n\u0131flamas\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesinin nedeni de bu. Neredeyse b\u00f6lgedeki her otoritenin \u201c\u00c7in k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7 olmak istiyorsa kom\u015fu \u00fclkelerin haklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zetmeli\u201d s\u00f6ylemi de bir anlam ifade etmiyor. \u00c7in b\u00f6lgede \u00e7oktan g\u00fc\u00e7 sahibi olmu\u015f, bu g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc Afrika\u2019ya kadar geni\u015fletmi\u015f olmas\u0131, yan\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki \u00fclkelerle ili\u015fkilerinde ku\u015fkusuz ki ba\u015fat bir siyasi g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na neden oluyor. Temelde buradaki sorun, \u00c7in\u2019in bu \u00fclkeleri nas\u0131l de\u011ferlendirdi\u011finden \u00f6nce, bu \u00fclkelerin i\u00e7inde yer ald\u0131klar\u0131 ad\u0131na ASEAN denilen b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn nas\u0131l bir performans sergiledi\u011fidir.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en haftaki zirve \u00f6ncesinde, Vietnam\u2019\u0131n da iddia etti\u011fi sularda \u00c7in\u2019in ilk defa petrol arama faaliyet ba\u015flatmak \u00fczere say\u0131s\u0131 neredeyse y\u00fcz\u00fc bulan donanma destekli sivil filosuyla harekete ge\u00e7i\u015fi g\u00f6zard\u0131 edilebilecek bir geli\u015fme de\u011fil. \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00f6lgede petrol arama \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ipu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda vermi\u015fti. Kald\u0131 ki, \u00c7in\u2019in sadece siyasi de\u011fil, ekonomik yat\u0131r\u0131m temelli atraksiyonu ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Barak Obama\u2019n\u0131n ziyaretinden haftalar sonra ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgede verdi\u011fi mesaja bir kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00c7in, \u201csivil imk\u00e2nlar\u0131yla\u201d b\u00f6lgede petrol arama \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na ilk ad\u0131m\u0131 atma s\u00fcrecinde Vietnam sahil g\u00fcvenlik birimlerine sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 ile de Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler\u2019in dikkatini \u00e7ekti. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u201cEylem Kurallar\u0131\u201d denilen deklarasyonun daha birinci maddesinde referans olarak Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletlerce 1982 y\u0131l\u0131nda kabul edilen Deniz Yasas\u0131 bulunuyor. Gene bu Yasa\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc maddesinde, anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fc\u00e7 kullan\u0131m\u0131 yerine, \u201cdostane m\u00fczakerelerle halledilmesi\u201d c\u00fcmlesinin bug\u00fcnk\u00fc kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise 1979 y\u0131l\u0131nda ya\u015fanan s\u0131n\u0131r \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131ndan bu yana ilk defa \u00c7in ve Vietnam\u2019\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya gelmi\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Ancak Nay Pyi Taw Zirvesi\u2019nde Vietnam ve Filipinler taraf\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm lobi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n ya\u015fan son geli\u015fme ba\u011flam\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019e g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir mesaj verilemedi. Bu durum, \u2018ASEAN g\u00fcvensizli\u011fi\u2019 olarak g\u00fcndeme gelirken, Vietnam\u2019da halk k\u0131zg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019e ait olan fabrikalara sald\u0131rarak ortaya koymaya ba\u015flam\u0131s hi\u00e7 de k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmsenecek bir geli\u015fme de\u011fil. Bu geli\u015fme, sadece Vietnam\u2019\u0131n de\u011fil, ASEAN\u2019\u0131n dikkate almas\u0131 gereken bir durumdur.<\/p>\n
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