{"id":6430,"date":"2026-04-28T15:48:52","date_gmt":"2026-04-28T15:48:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/?p=6430"},"modified":"2026-04-28T15:48:54","modified_gmt":"2026-04-28T15:48:54","slug":"iranda-kazananini-bekleyen-savas-a-war-awaits-its-winner-in-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/iranda-kazananini-bekleyen-savas-a-war-awaits-its-winner-in-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ran\u2019da kazanan\u0131n\u0131 bekleyen sava\u015f \/ A war awaits its winner in Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Mehmet \u00d6zay &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 28.04.2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Do\u011frudan ABD-\u0130srail i\u015fbirli\u011finin sonucu olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sava\u015f, 28 \u015eubat\u2019tan bu yana yani, iki ayd\u0131r devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130ran\u2019a askeri sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 pl\u00e2nlayanlar\u0131n ne t\u00fcr hedefleri oldu\u011fu konusunda, ABD -ve bir \u015fekilde \u0130srail\u2019le- ittifak halindeki \u00e7e\u015fitli \u00fclkelerin de i\u00e7inde oldu\u011fu pek \u00e7ok \u00fclke y\u00f6netimlerinin ak\u0131llar\u0131 ise h\u00e2l\u00e2 bu i\u015fe yatm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ABD ile ittifak halindeki \u00fclkelerden kas\u0131t, tabii ki \u00f6ncelikle NATO \u00fcyeleri\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu noktada, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n, ABD ve NATO\u2019nun Avrupal\u0131 \u00fcyeleri aras\u0131nda var olan gerilimi daha da art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu gerilimin sava\u015f\u0131n devam\u0131 ve\/ya sona ermesi halinde ne t\u00fcr bir evreye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi ise merak konusu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Tezatlar b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015fkumandan\u0131 rol\u00fcn\u00fc bile isteye oynayan ABD ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n, tezat i\u00e7erikli s\u00f6ylemlerinin \u015fekillendirdi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nem ya\u015fan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tabii, geli\u015fmelere hangi a\u00e7\u0131dan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler de yok de\u011fil\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00d6rne\u011fin, bu anlamda, sava\u015f\u0131n gidi\u015fat\u0131n\u0131n Trump\u2019\u0131n s\u00f6ylemleri ve de ABD-\u0130srail askeri pl\u00e2nlar\u0131nca y\u00f6nlendirildi\u011fi \u015feklindeki izah\u0131n da, en az ilki kadar ger\u00e7eklik pay\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyan geli\u015fmeler yok de\u011fil\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu durum, ortada kazanan\u0131n\u0131 bekleyen bir sava\u015f oldu\u011fu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 anlaml\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sald\u0131r\u0131lar, kar\u015f\u0131 ataklar, bar\u0131\u015f masas\u0131nda bulu\u015fma yollar\u0131 ile sava\u015f\u0131n, bir t\u00fcr belirsizlik \u00e7emberinde devam etmekte oldu\u011fu izlenimi, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde ak\u0131llara yer etmi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu belirsizli\u011fin, yine bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak taraflar\u0131n yani, ABD-\u0130srail koalisyonu ile \u0130ran taraf\u0131n\u0131n gizli\/a\u00e7\u0131k sarf ettikleri stratejik hedeflerinin \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc olarak ortaya koyduklar\u0131 m\u00fccadelenin bir par\u00e7as\u0131 oldu\u011fu konusu da, dikkatle ele al\u0131nmay\u0131 hak ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yani, ortada sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmeme konusunda kas\u0131tl\u0131 bir u\u011fra\u015f\u0131n oldu\u011fu g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemelidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmeyerek \u00f6tekini askeri, siyasi ve ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan k\u00f6\u015feye s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rma beklentisi belirleyici oluyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>NATO\u2019dan bak\u0131\u015f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Burada kritik rol\u00fc ABD ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n de\u011fil, aksine Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek biraz garip gelebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ancak, ge\u00e7en iki ayl\u0131k s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n s\u0131rt\u0131n\u0131 istedi\u011fi \u015fekilde yere getirememi\u015f olan ABD-\u0130srail koalisyonu sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n akabinde ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n, NATO \u00fcyesi Avrupa \u00fclkelerine \u201cgelin petrol\u00fcn\u00fcz\u00fc kendiniz al\u0131n!\u201d \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131, dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sanki, bu koalisyonun sava\u015f meydan\u0131ndan \u00e7ekiliyormu\u015f izlenimi uyand\u0131rmad\u0131 de\u011fil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump\u2019a \u00f6zg\u00fc bir serzeni\u015fi i\u00e7inde bar\u0131nd\u0131ran bu a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n hedefinde, \u00f6zellikle \u0130ngiltere, Fransa ve \u0130spanya gibi NATO i\u00e7erisinde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan \u00fclkeler olmas\u0131, geni\u015f Bat\u0131 askeri ve g\u00fcvenlik sistemi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan gayet manidar bir durum oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>NATO \u00fcyesi \u00fclke liderlerinin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, \u201c\u0130ran\u2019a sava\u015f a\u00e7arken, bize sordum mu?\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, temelde, Trump\u2019\u0131 k\u00f6\u015feye s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmaya yeter bir siyasal s\u00f6ylemdir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bir ba\u015fka deyi\u015fle, sava\u015f\u0131n NATO ile ilintili olabilece\u011fini sava\u015f \u00f6ncesinde de\u011fil, sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flatmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Trump\u2019dan gelmesi, NATO\u2019nun i\u015flevi i\u015flevsizli\u011fi s\u00f6yleminin ve tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, NATO i\u00e7erisinde bir istikrars\u0131z diyalog s\u00fcrecinin a\u00e7\u0131k se\u00e7ik ifadesidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>NATO\u2019da ilgili \u00fclkelerin silahl\u0131 kuvvetlerini sahasa s\u00fcrmemekle birlikte, \u00fcslerini ABD-\u0130srail koalisyonuna a\u00e7malar\u0131, hi\u00e7 ku\u015fku yok ki, do\u011frudan sava\u015f\u0131n i\u00e7inde yer almalar\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu noktada, NATO \u00fcyesi ABD ve Avrupa \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan gerilimin, \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sava\u015f ile ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olmayan, haddi zat\u0131nda bu geli\u015fmenin \u00f6ncesine dayanan bir gerilim s\u00fcreci oldu\u011fu biliniyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131lanma sendromu<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ya\u015fanan bu gerilimin, sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana devam etti\u011fini ve halen ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini korudu\u011funu ortaya koyan son geli\u015fme ise, Almanya \u015fans\u00f6lyesi Friedrich Merz\u2019in bir a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131yla ortaya kondu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u015eans\u00f6lye Merz, Pakistan vas\u0131tas\u0131yla ortaya konulmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri s\u00fcrecinin ikinci turunun akamete u\u011framas\u0131 \u00fczerine, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan \u201ca\u015fa\u011f\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d yolundaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc gayet dikkat \u00e7ekiciydi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama sanki, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 gibi de yorumlanmaya a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ancak, Merz\u2019in, b\u00f6yle bir ama\u00e7 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Aksine, Merz\u2019in hedefinde, temelde, NATO \u00fcyesi olan ABD\u2019nin, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcrecindeki ve de bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri safhalar\u0131ndaki performans\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131na vurgu bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Merz\u2019in bu \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131, haddizat\u0131nda sava\u015f\u0131n \u00f6ncesi s\u00fcre\u00e7lerde, NATO\u2019nun Avrupa \u00fcyelerinden y\u00fckselen, ABD\u2019nin NATO \u00e7er\u00e7evesine uygun bir siyasal ve askeri politika geli\u015ftir\/e\/memi\u015f oldu\u011fu yolundaki s\u00f6ylemlerin devam\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirmek gerekir. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130ran y\u00f6netimi, Merz\u2019in tespitinden hareketle, bir t\u00fcr \u00f6zg\u00fcven ve ba\u015far\u0131 hissine kap\u0131labilirler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bunun, kendileri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan moral bir kazan\u0131m olarak yarar\u0131 olmayaca\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenemez\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Varolu\u015f sorunu<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ancak, yukar\u0131da dikkat \u00e7ekti\u011fim \u00fczere, \u2018sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmeyerek \u00f6tekini k\u00f6\u015feye s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rma\u2019 stratejisinin ABD\u2019den ziyade, daha \u00e7ok \u0130ran i\u00e7in kritik bir \u00f6nemli sahip oldu\u011fu ortada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sava\u015f\u0131n, \u0130ran i\u00e7in bir \u2018varolu\u015f sorunu\u2019na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dair, uluslararas\u0131 \u00e7evrelerin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda bu durum a\u00e7\u0131k se\u00e7ik g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bir ba\u015fka ifadeyle s\u00f6ylemek gerekirse, ya\u015fanmakta olan sava\u015f \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kaybetmesi ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmayan, aksine, \u0130ran\u2019da rejimin var olu\u015fu mu sona eri\u015fimi noktas\u0131na gelip dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump, \u0130ran\u2019da olan biteni g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f olmal\u0131 ki, \u201c\u2026 Kendi i\u00e7lerinde sava\u015f\u0131yorlar\u2026 Liderlerinin kafalar\u0131 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k!\u201d diyerek, \u0130ran\u2019da siyasal karar alma mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fkenli\u011fine ve de belirsizli\u011fine at\u0131fta bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Benzer bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, Alman \u015eans\u00f6ylesi Merz\u2019in ifadesinde de bulmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Merz, \u0130ran taraf\u0131n\u0131n \u0130slamabad g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme s\u00fcrecindeki yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131, \u201cA\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7as\u0131 \u0130ranl\u0131lar, m\u00fczakerelerde gayet mahirler ya da daha do\u011frusu m\u00fczakere yapmamada olduk\u00e7a mahirler\u2026\u201d diyerek, bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u0130ran taraf\u0131nda karar alma mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131n mu\u011flakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6nderme yap\u0131yor\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bununla birlikte, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, aradan ge\u00e7en iki ayl\u0131k s\u00fcre\u00e7te, \u2018pes etmemi\u015f\u2019 olmas\u0131n\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131 olarak kabul edip, zaten var olan yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara al\u0131\u015fk\u0131n olan \u0130ran y\u00f6netiminin bu \u2018al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u2019 olu\u015fturdu\u011fu dayanakl\u0131l\u0131ktan hareketle ayakta kalabildi\u011fi ve de ilerleyen s\u00fcre\u00e7te kalabilece\u011fi iddias\u0131n\u0131 da yabana atmamak gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130ki ayd\u0131r devam eden sava\u015f\u0131n, bug\u00fcn geldi\u011fi nokta belirsizlikleriyle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ortada kazanan\u0131n\u0131 bekleyen bir sava\u015f\u0131n oldu\u011funa ku\u015fku bulunmuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mehmet \u00d6zay &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 28.04.2026 Do\u011frudan ABD-\u0130srail i\u015fbirli\u011finin sonucu olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sava\u015f, 28 \u015eubat\u2019tan bu yana yani, iki ayd\u0131r devam ediyor. \u0130ran\u2019a askeri sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 pl\u00e2nlayanlar\u0131n ne t\u00fcr hedefleri oldu\u011fu konusunda, ABD -ve bir \u015fekilde \u0130srail\u2019le- ittifak halindeki \u00e7e\u015fitli \u00fclkelerin de i\u00e7inde oldu\u011fu pek \u00e7ok \u00fclke y\u00f6netimlerinin ak\u0131llar\u0131 ise h\u00e2l\u00e2 bu i\u015fe yatm\u0131\u015f [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":6431,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6430","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-asya-pasifik","category-gunluk-yazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6430","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6430"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6430\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6432,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6430\/revisions\/6432"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6431"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6430"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6430"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6430"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}