{"id":6384,"date":"2026-03-28T13:29:21","date_gmt":"2026-03-28T13:29:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/?p=6384"},"modified":"2026-03-28T13:29:24","modified_gmt":"2026-03-28T13:29:24","slug":"ortadoguda-savasin-tehlikeli-yonelimi-the-dangerous-trajectory-of-war-in-the-middle-east","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/ortadoguda-savasin-tehlikeli-yonelimi-the-dangerous-trajectory-of-war-in-the-middle-east\/","title":{"rendered":"Ortado\u011fu\u2019da sava\u015f\u0131n tehlikeli y\u00f6nelimi\u00a0 \/ The dangerous trajectory of war in the Middle East"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Mehmet \u00d6zay &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;28.03.2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sava\u015f\u0131n \u00f6ncesinde, kimilerine g\u00f6re g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeyen y\u00fcz\u00fc giderek biraz daha belirginlik kazan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu durum, \u00f6zellikle Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n <em>de facto<\/em> lideri Mohammed bin Salman\u2019\u0131n, d\u00fcn yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada g\u00fcn y\u00fcz\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n talebi<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mohammad Salman, Trump\u2019a a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131da bulunarak, \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131lan sava\u015f\u0131n yar\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131lmamas\u0131n\u0131 istiyor. Salman\u2019\u0131n bu \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n temel hedefi ise, Ortado\u011fu\u2019da yeni bir haritan\u0131n olu\u015fturulmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu haritay\u0131 olu\u015fturacak g\u00fcc\u00fcn ABD-\u0130srail ittifak\u0131 oldu\u011funu da, bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131yla ortaya koyan Salman s\u00fcreci, \u201ctarihi bir f\u0131rsat\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlamaktan da geri kalm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu tarihi f\u0131rsat\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilebilmesinin yolunu da Salman a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda g\u00fcndeme getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ve bu anlamda, \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n mevcut h\u00e2liyle kalmamas\u0131, aksine, yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lacak ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclecek g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Evet, b\u00f6ylesi bir \u00f6nerinin sadece Suudi Arabistan a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan de\u011fil, genel itibar\u0131yla bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Arap co\u011frafyas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturan ulus-devletler ba\u011flam\u0131nda da, gayet \u00f6nemli bir olgu oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Ortado\u011fu ve yak\u0131n tarih<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n bug\u00fcne has bir siyasal niyet ve tutum olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 da tarihe az \u00e7ok vukufiyeti olanlarca da malumdur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Salman\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda yer alan veya a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131na eklenen \u201cyeniden\u201d ifadesi (<em>to remake the Middle East<\/em>), bize -en az\u0131ndan, y\u00fcz elli y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinde yine ayn\u0131 co\u011frafyada ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen d\u00f6nemin Ortado\u011fu\u2019sunun ya da o d\u00f6nemki ad\u0131yla Yak\u0131n Do\u011fu\u2019nun (<em>Near East<\/em>) \u2018yeniden in\u015fa\u2019n\u0131n veya \u2018yeniden tesisi\u2019ni hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Akt\u00f6rler k\u0131smen farkl\u0131 olsa da, temelde, Yak\u0131n Do\u011fu\u2019yu s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131yla yeni devletleriyle, yeniden in\u015fa s\u00fcrecinde, Bat\u0131 siyasal d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesinin egemen tutumu s\u00f6z konusuydu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu noktada, bug\u00fcn\u00fcn iki \u00f6nemli ittifak g\u00fcc\u00fc olan ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019den, \u0130srail\u2019in hen\u00fcz devletle\u015fmemi\u015f, ancak Avrupa devletlerinden en az\u0131ndan baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6netebilecek ve y\u00f6nlendirebilecek g\u00fcc\u00fcyle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan ekonomik ve siyasal&nbsp; g\u00fcce sahipken, \u00f6teki g\u00fcc\u00fc \u0130ngiltere te\u015fkil ediyordu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Riyad sava\u015fa girer mi?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Riyad\u2019dan yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n ABD-\u0130srail ittifak\u0131n\u0131n sadece arka pl\u00e2n\u0131nda m\u0131 yer alaca\u011f\u0131 yoksa \u00f6n pl\u00e2nda da rol oynay\u0131p isteyip istemeyce\u011fi ise \u015fimdilik belirsiz g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamaya Washington\u2019dan gelen teyidi, Salman\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fig\u00fczel yap\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n da, bir anlamda ifadesi kabul etmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gazetecilerin sorusu \u00fczerine ABD ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump bu a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 teyit ederken, Salman\u2019a at\u0131fla, \u201cO bir sava\u015f\u00e7\u0131&#8230; Bizimle birlikte sava\u015f\u0131yor!\u201d ifadesinde, Trump\u2019a \u00f6zg\u00fc kl\u00e2sik bir abart\u0131 ihtimali g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemekle birlikte, ortada ciddiye al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken bir durum oldu\u011funa ku\u015fku yok.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00d6rne\u011fin, Salman\u2019\u0131n sava\u015f\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair bug\u00fcne kadar aktif bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ortaya konulmu\u015f de\u011fil&#8230; a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n ikinci b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde yer alan ifade ise ger\u00e7ek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00d6yle ki, bunun fark\u0131nda olan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131 hedeflerinden birinin, Suudi Arabistan s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131ndaki \u00fcstlerin olu\u015fturmas\u0131 tam da, bu duruma kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Belirsizlik<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ortada bir davet kadar, belirsizli\u011fin de oldu\u011funa ku\u015fku yok&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bir yandan, ba\u015fta Ba\u015fkan Trump olmak \u00fczere baz\u0131 \u00e7evreler \u0130ran\u2019la masaya oturuldu\u011funu ve bar\u0131\u015f sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirme veya bar\u0131\u015f konusunda ad\u0131mlar at\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyorlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00d6te yandan, Riyad\u2019dan gelen sava\u015f\u0131n bu haliyle s\u00fcrmesi aksine, sald\u0131r\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn art\u0131r\u0131larak gizli a\u00e7\u0131k \u201c\u0130ran\u2019\u0131 devreden \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131n\u201d mesaj\u0131 bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu durum, sadece sava\u015fla ilgili de\u011fil, Ortado\u011fu\u2019nun siyasal ve hatta, teritoryal varl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fimler \u00f6ng\u00f6ren projeksiyonlar\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcd\u00fcm\u00fcnde oldu\u011fu anla\u015f\u0131lan s\u00f6zde bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinin t\u0131pk\u0131 Ukrayna bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcreci gibi mu\u011flakl\u0131\u011fa evrilmesi halinde, Salman\u2019\u0131n \u201cdaha fazla sald\u0131r\u0131n\u201d \u00f6nerisinin g\u00fcndeme al\u0131nmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kimse garanti edemez.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Uzmanlara dayand\u0131r\u0131larak sunulan baz\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar dikkate al\u0131nacak olursa, baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerin arabulucu\u011fuyla s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclen bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinin akamete u\u011framas\u0131 halinde, Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n, ABD-\u0130srail ittifak\u0131na \u2018aktif\u2019 kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yabana atmamak gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6ylesi \u00f6nemli bir sava\u015fta yer almas\u0131, modern Arap tarihinde bir ilk olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ve bu anlamda, Suudi Arabistan ordusunun ABD ve \u0130srail ordular\u0131yla birlikte i\u015fbirli\u011fini de, t\u00fcm d\u00fcnya yak\u0131ndan izleyecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Belirleyici olan Amerika<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bununla birlikte, Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir taraf\u0131n sava\u015fta yer al\u0131p almayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ne t\u00fcr bir karar verece\u011fi ise \u015fimdilik belirsiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Her ne kadar, yukar\u0131da dile getirdi\u011fim \u00fczere Trump, \u201cSalman, bizimle birlikte sava\u015f\u0131yor.\u201d ifadesini sarf etse de, b\u00f6ylesi bir aktif kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n ABD a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kontrol edilemeyecek bir d\u00fczeye \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 da arzu edilir bir durum olmasa gerek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, ABD-Suudi Arabistan ili\u015fkilerinde y\u00f6nlendirici olan\u0131n Riyad y\u00f6netimi de\u011fil, Washington oldu\u011funu unutmamak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ABD \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 \u00f6nceli\u011fi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Salman\u2019a at\u0131fta, Suudi Arabistan\u2019dan yap\u0131lan \u00f6nerinin ABD taraf\u0131ndan hayata ge\u00e7irilip ge\u00e7irilmeyece\u011fini de buna dayal\u0131 olarak hesap etmek gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Benzer bir talebin 2008 y\u0131l\u0131nda, d\u00f6nemin Suudi Arabistan kral\u0131 Abdullah\u2019\u0131n, Washington y\u00f6netimine \u201cKesin \u015fu y\u0131lan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131!\u201d \u00f6nerisiyle g\u00fcndeme getirildi\u011fini hat\u0131rlamakta yarar var.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ortado\u011fu\u2019da \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclen sava\u015f ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n verdi\u011fi kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcreci ile sonu\u00e7lanmamas\u0131 halinde y\u00f6neliminde \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla bilinen Arap \u00fclkelerinin ABD nezdinde ortaya koyduklar\u0131 talep ve beklentileri kadar, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgedeki ittifak\u0131 Yemen\u2019deki Husilerle ne t\u00fcrden bir s\u00fcreci ba\u015flatabilece\u011fini de hesaba katmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mehmet \u00d6zay &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;28.03.2026 \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sava\u015f\u0131n \u00f6ncesinde, kimilerine g\u00f6re g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeyen y\u00fcz\u00fc giderek biraz daha belirginlik kazan\u0131yor. Bu durum, \u00f6zellikle Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n de facto lideri Mohammed bin Salman\u2019\u0131n, d\u00fcn yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada g\u00fcn y\u00fcz\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n talebi Mohammad Salman, Trump\u2019a a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131da bulunarak, \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131lan sava\u015f\u0131n yar\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131lmamas\u0131n\u0131 istiyor. Salman\u2019\u0131n bu \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n temel hedefi [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":6385,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6384","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gunluk-yazilar","category-ortadogumiddle-east"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6384","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6384"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6384\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6386,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6384\/revisions\/6386"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6385"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6384"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6384"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6384"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}