{"id":6225,"date":"2025-12-03T15:22:11","date_gmt":"2025-12-03T15:22:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/?p=6225"},"modified":"2025-12-03T15:22:13","modified_gmt":"2025-12-03T15:22:13","slug":"ukraynada-baris-bir-baska-noele-kaldi-peace-in-ukraine-waits-for-another-christmas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/ukraynada-baris-bir-baska-noele-kaldi-peace-in-ukraine-waits-for-another-christmas\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukrayna\u2019da bar\u0131\u015f bir ba\u015fka Noel\u2019e kald\u0131! \/ Peace in Ukraine waits for another Christmas!"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Mehmet \u00d6zal &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;03.12.2025<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukrayna\u2019da sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirme konusunda, d\u00fcn Moskova\u2019da yap\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerden olumlu sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bar\u0131\u015f umudunu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u00e7evreler ise, Rusya devlet ba\u015fkan\u0131 Vladimir Putin\u2019in s\u00fcrpriz \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yla, Avrupa\u2019yla sava\u015f olgusunu g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131, s\u00fcrecin giderek daha farkl\u0131 ve de tehlikeli bir h\u00e2l almakta olu\u015fuyla s\u00fckutu hayale u\u011frad\u0131lar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Avrupa Birli\u011fi d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakanlar\u0131n\u0131n bug\u00fcn, Br\u00fcksel\u2019de yap\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler \u00f6ncesinde, baz\u0131 bakanlar\u0131n yapt\u0131klar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, Moskova\u2019daki ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ard\u0131nda su\u00e7luyu Putin\u2019e i\u015faret ediyordu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ve bu durumda, Ukrayna\u2019ya bask\u0131dan ziyade, Rusya\u2019da siyasal bask\u0131lar\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 konusunda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler g\u00fcndeme getiriliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u00dcmit var m\u0131?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu durumda sorulmas\u0131 gereken soru \u015fu: \u201cAvrupa\u2019n\u0131n ortas\u0131nda s\u00fcren sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirme konusundaki giri\u015fimlerin bug\u00fcn ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 nokta belirsizli\u011fe mi, \u00fcmitsizli\u011fe mi i\u015faret ediyor?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu, hi\u00e7 ku\u015fku yok ki, AB ba\u015fkenti Br\u00fcksel, Rusya ba\u015fkenti Moskova, ABD ba\u015fkenti Washington ile Ukrayna ba\u015fkenti Kiew\u2019de cevab\u0131 aranan bir soru.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerle ilgili detaylar\u0131n bas\u0131nla payla\u015f\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, taraflar\u0131n hangi bar\u0131\u015f metnini ele ald\u0131klar\u0131 ve hangi maddeler \u00fczerinde anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek \u015fu halde m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6z\u00fckm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Benzer bir belirsizlik ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz, Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc Florida\u2019da, ABD ile Ukrayna taraflar\u0131 aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde de ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler sonras\u0131nda ABD d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakan\u0131 Marco Rubio, \u201cg\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler zorlu ge\u00e7ti\u201d demekle yetinmi\u015fti&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>D\u00fcn Moskova\u2019daki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan, Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00f6zel el\u00e7isi Witkoff ise, Putin\u2019le yap\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeyi \u201cfaydal\u0131 ve yap\u0131c\u0131\u201d demekle tan\u0131mlamakla yetindi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sadece k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir istisna&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ABD ile Rusya aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin neticesi olarak, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta g\u00fcndeme gelen ve \u00f6nce 28 ve sonras\u0131nda 19 oldu\u011fu belirtilen anla\u015fma maddeleriyle ilgili olarak Putin\u2019in orijinal metne yani, 28 maddelik bar\u0131\u015f plan\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fclmesini istedi\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki a\u00e7\u0131klama dikkat \u00e7ekiciydi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ancak, bu maddelerin de neler oldu\u011fundaki belirsizlik halen devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bilinen tek bir \u015fey var ki, o da Putin\u2019in 2022 \u015eubat\u2019\u0131ndan bu yana, Ukrayna\u2019dan elde etti\u011fi b\u00f6lgeyi, bir ba\u015fka ifadeyle t\u00fcm Donbas b\u00f6lgesini geri vermek istememesi ve ABD\u2019nin bu \u00f6neriyi kabul etmesi talebi&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Taraflar hangi konumda?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>D\u00fcn yani, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00f6zel el\u00e7isi Steve Witkoff ile Rusya devlet ba\u015fkan\u0131 Vladimir Putin aras\u0131nda, Moskova\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen toplant\u0131dan bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 konusunda olumlu bir sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kmamas\u0131n\u0131n, taraflar \u00fczerinde olu\u015fturdu\u011fu etkiyi bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tahmin etmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Taraflar nezdinde bu olumsuz geli\u015fmeye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ABD a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz \u015eubat ay\u0131ndan bug\u00fcne kadar Trump\u2019\u0131n bar\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131na bir yenisi eklenmi\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rusya a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hem, ABD ve hem de, AB ile ili\u015fkilerde \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, yumu\u015fak g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc ve askeri olarak da yap\u0131sal g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn devam etti\u011fine ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Avrupa Birli\u011fi, k\u0131ta\u2019n\u0131n ortas\u0131nda s\u00fcrmekte olan sava\u015ftan hi\u00e7 memnun olmasa da, Rusya ile Rusya\u2019n\u0131n taleplerine y\u00f6nelik birbar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n imzalanmam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131 olumlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukrayna \u00e7evrelerinde ise kafalar\u0131n gayet kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00dclkeyi terk eden Ukrayna toplumu, son d\u00f6nemde sava\u015f kabinesinde g\u00fcndeme gelen kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k, ABD\u2019siz hareket edememenin getirdi\u011fi a\u011f\u0131r y\u00fck, AB ile i\u00e7i\u00e7e olman\u0131n getirdi\u011fi umut ve umutsuzluk aras\u0131ndaki ikircikli durum Ukrayna\u2019da, direni\u015fin ne zamana kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilece\u011fi konusunda sorular\u0131n da g\u00fcndeme gelmesine neden oluyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Hedef Avrupa Birli\u011fi!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>D\u00fcnk\u00fc Moskova g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin neticesine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda asl\u0131nda, \u201cbeklenen sonu\u00e7 buydu\u201d, demek yanl\u0131\u015f olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bunun dayanaklar\u0131n\u0131 ise ABD ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump\u2019\u0131n, Rusya ile bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerini ba\u015flamas\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan, gelen ele\u015ftiriler \u00fczerine ABD makamlar\u0131n\u0131n Ukrayna temsilcileriyle \u00f6nce Cenova\u2019da ve ard\u0131ndan, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc Florida\u2019da yapt\u0131klar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri delil olarak sunmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu geli\u015fmenin ard\u0131ndan beklenen, taraflar\u0131n birbirlerini neyle su\u00e7layacaklar\u0131 hususuydu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu hususta beklentilere cevap ge\u00e7ikmedi&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rusya devlet ba\u015fkan\u0131 Vladimir Putin, d\u00fcn gazetecilerin sorusu \u00fczerine yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, \u201cAvrupa ile sava\u015f\u201d istemediklerini ancak, \u201cAvrupa sava\u015f istiyorsa, bundan da geri durmayacaklar\u0131\u201d anlam\u0131na gelen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle hedefe Avrupa Birli\u011fini koymu\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Putin\u2019in bu \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131, ABD ve Trump\u2019\u0131 en az\u0131ndan \u015fimdilik, \u2018su\u00e7lu\u2019 g\u00f6stermedi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor. Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 da ayn\u0131 kategoride ele almak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu durumda, bir ba\u015fka soru yani, \u201cPutin\u2019in AB\u2019yi hedef g\u00f6stermesine sebep ne olabilir?\u201d g\u00fcndeme geliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u015eayet, Ukrayna makamlar\u0131, ABD\u2019nin de\u011fil de, AB\u2019nin talepleriyle bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 tasla\u011f\u0131 haz\u0131rlam\u0131\u015f ve Trump\u2019dan bunun onay\u0131n\u0131 alm\u0131\u015f ise, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme trafiklerinde ABD\u2019nin ikincil konuma itildi\u011fine i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump\u2019\u0131n var oldu\u011fu bir ortamda, ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6yle bir geli\u015fmeyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>ABD biliyor muydu?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Peki, ABD taraf\u0131 bu geli\u015fmeye haz\u0131r m\u0131yd\u0131?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ekim ay\u0131nda geri d\u00f6nerek bu sorunun cevab\u0131n\u0131 bulmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump-Putin aras\u0131nda, Budape\u015fte\u2019de yap\u0131lmas\u0131 pl\u00e2nlanan zirveyi, Trump\u2019\u0131n iptal etmemesinin ard\u0131nda, Moskova\u2019n\u0131n bar\u0131\u015fa y\u00f6nelik ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n yetersizli\u011fi bulunuyordu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Aradan ge\u00e7en bir ayl\u0131k s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda Putin\u2019den olumlu bir cevap gelmedi\u011fini herhalde en iyi bilenin Trump olmas\u0131 gerekir&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m, \u201cNoel\u2019de Ukrayna\u2019ya bar\u0131\u015f gelir mi?\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 yaz\u0131ma k\u0131ymetli bir okurum, T\u00fcrk dostu Frans\u0131z Valette Bey, \u201c2025 Noel\u2019i mi, 2026 Noel\u2019i mi? diyerek kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>D\u00fcn Moskova\u2019daki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler sonras\u0131nda bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n 2025 Noel\u2019ine yeti\u015fmeyece\u011fi kan\u0131tlanm\u0131\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu durumda, Valette Bey\u2019in tahmini yani, Avrupa\u2019ya bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n 2026 Noel\u2019ine kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn do\u011fruland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Moskova sonras\u0131 geli\u015fmelerde AB\u2019nin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek yanl\u0131\u015f olmayacak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bir yandan, Rusya\u2019ya yeni ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlarla \u00fclke ekonomisini \u00e7\u00f6kertme pl\u00e2n\u0131 \u00f6te yandan, Ukrayna\u2019ya daha fazla yard\u0131m s\u00fcreci AB\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde daha da \u00f6nemli bir roy oynayabilece\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mehmet \u00d6zal &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;03.12.2025 Ukrayna\u2019da sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirme konusunda, d\u00fcn Moskova\u2019da yap\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerden olumlu sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131. Bar\u0131\u015f umudunu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u00e7evreler ise, Rusya devlet ba\u015fkan\u0131 Vladimir Putin\u2019in s\u00fcrpriz \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yla, Avrupa\u2019yla sava\u015f olgusunu g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131, s\u00fcrecin giderek daha farkl\u0131 ve de tehlikeli bir h\u00e2l almakta olu\u015fuyla s\u00fckutu hayale u\u011frad\u0131lar. Avrupa Birli\u011fi d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakanlar\u0131n\u0131n bug\u00fcn, Br\u00fcksel\u2019de yap\u0131lan [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":6226,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6225","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-asya-pasifik","category-gunluk-yazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6225","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6225"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6225\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6227,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6225\/revisions\/6227"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6226"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6225"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6225"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6225"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}