{"id":5915,"date":"2025-06-20T13:54:43","date_gmt":"2025-06-20T13:54:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/?p=5915"},"modified":"2025-06-20T13:54:44","modified_gmt":"2025-06-20T13:54:44","slug":"iranin-gelecegini-belirlemek-determining-the-future-of-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/iranin-gelecegini-belirlemek-determining-the-future-of-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n gelece\u011fini belirlemek \/ Determining the future of Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Mehmet \u00d6zay &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;20.06.2025<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130srail\u2019in, kendini tehdit alt\u0131nda hissetti\u011fi ya da ulusal g\u00fcvenli\u011finin tehdit alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu iddias\u0131ndan hareketle, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc tesislere y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131 farkl\u0131 bir y\u00f6ne do\u011fru evrildi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Geli\u015fmelerin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131ndan k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre sonra, bir ba\u015fka ifadeyle, bir hafta \u00f6nce kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m yaz\u0131da, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu sorunun rejim oldu\u011funa de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015ftim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130srail ve destek\u00e7ilerinin \u0130ran\u2019da askeri varl\u0131\u011fa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilecek n\u00fckleer \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 ve mek\u00e2nlar\u0131 hedef almakla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmayan bir s\u00fcrecin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 gayet a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130ran\u2019da \u2018rejimi de\u011fi\u015ftirme\u2019 \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131n oldu\u011fu art\u0131k kesinlik kazanm\u0131\u015f durumda&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tam da burada, \u015fu hususu vurgulamak gerekir ki, \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik askeri operasyonlar\u0131n ve de \u0130ran\u2019da, mevcut siyasi rejimi sona erdirmeyi ama\u00e7layan \u2018k\u00fcresel\u2019 politikan\u0131n, salt \u0130srail devletinin \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>San\u0131lanlar\u0131n aksine, bu son geli\u015fmeden geriye do\u011fru gidildi\u011finde, \u0130srail\u2019in \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc oldu\u011fu ve i\u00e7inde yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 sava\u015flar\u0131n da, tek ba\u015f\u0131na alt\u0131ndan kalkmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlamak gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130srail\u2019in, teolojik-ideolojik alanda olmasa da, politik ve askeri ba\u011flamlarda, di\u011fer baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerin onay\u0131 ve deste\u011fi ile hareket etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>ABD fakt\u00f6r\u00fc<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu durum, \u0130srail y\u00f6netiminin s\u00f6ylemini geride b\u0131rakacak ve k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7 yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 belirlemeye y\u00f6nelik \u00fclkenin yani, ABD\u2019nin Trump y\u00f6netimiyle birlikte \u00e7ok daha belirleyici bir konuma geldi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kan\u0131mca, \u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n pl\u00e2nlanmas\u0131ndan itibaren, \u0130srail\u2019den daha \u00e7ok, ABD\u2019nin rol ve belirleyicili\u011fi oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek yanl\u0131\u015f olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Herkesin bildi\u011fi ger\u00e7e\u011fi payla\u015facak olursak, ABD\u2019nin deste\u011fi olmadan bug\u00fcne kadar \u0130srail\u2019in ne, bir devlet olarak ne de, bir askeri varl\u0131k olarak ayakta kalmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu husus, gayet a\u00e7\u0131k bir ger\u00e7ek&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, ABD\u2019de ge\u00e7en Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lan se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesindeki propaganda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda \u00f6zellikle de, Demokrat Parti aday\u0131 Kamala Harris ile kameralar \u00f6n\u00fcnde yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 canl\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fma program\u0131nda, \u201c\u0130srail\u2019in tehdit alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu\u201d s\u00f6ylemini a\u00e7\u0131k se\u00e7ik dile getirmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump o g\u00fcnlerde, konuyu -do\u011fal olarak- ABD i\u00e7 politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olarak, se\u00e7imi Demokratlar\u0131n kazanmas\u0131 halinde, \u0130srail\u2019e ne olaca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131yla sunmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ve \u201c\u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde \u0130srail\u2019in sona erdirilebilece\u011fi\u201dni ileri s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>B\u00fct\u00fcnc\u00fcl pl\u00e2n ve ABD<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Aradan ge\u00e7en alt\u0131, yedi ayl\u0131k s\u00fcre\u00e7 sonras\u0131nda bug\u00fcn \u0130ran\u2019da sadece, n\u00fckleer \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n askeri etkisiyle ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemeye y\u00f6nelik bir geli\u015fme olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 her haliyle kendini ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ABD y\u00f6netimi ya da ba\u015fkan Trump, \u0130srail\u2019in ilk sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda sanki, bu geli\u015fmeden haberi yokmu\u015f, ABD g\u00f6zlemci konumunda bir \u00fclkeymi\u015f ve Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019e g\u00f6nderilen ABD filosunun sadece, b\u00f6lgedeki ABD \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 korumaya y\u00f6nelik bir \u00f6n tedbir vs. a\u00e7\u0131klamar\u0131yla g\u00fcndeme geldi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ancak, \u00fc\u00e7 d\u00f6rt i\u00e7erisinde Trump ve ABD\u2019den gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, \u0130srail devletinin s\u00f6ylemlerinin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump\u2019\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar aras\u0131nda \u0130ran halk\u0131na, \u201cTahran\u2019\u0131 bo\u015falt\u0131n\u201d \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik topyek\u00fcn bir sava\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kan\u0131mca, ne \u0130srail ne de, ABD kara ordular\u0131n\u0131 \u0130ran \u00fczerine sevk edecektir&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cTahran\u2019\u0131 bo\u015falt\u0131n\u201d s\u00f6ylemi de belki, t\u00fcm ba\u015fkenti fiziki olarak ortadan kald\u0131rma amac\u0131yla da sarf edilmi\u015f de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En ba\u015fta, i\u015fin psikolojik boyutunu ele alarak s\u00f6ylemek gerekirse, \u0130ran halk\u0131 \u00f6zellikle de, ba\u015fkente ya\u015fayan milyonlarca insan \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 ve g\u00fcvensizlik olu\u015fturmay\u0131 hedefliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130lgili mek\u00e2nlar\u0131n bombalanmas\u0131yla \u0130ran\u2019da zay\u0131flayacak rejimin de\u011fi\u015fim s\u00fcrecinde, ba\u015fkentte olu\u015facak olan kaos ortam\u0131n\u0131n kataliz\u00f6r i\u015flevi yapaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor olmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130ran\u2019da zaten rejimden memnun olmayanlar, olu\u015fan kaos ve kriz ortam\u0131nda biyolojik, ekonomik varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen kitlelerin bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te belirleyici bir rol alacaklar\u0131 ortadad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Trump karar\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ABD\u2019nin ve de \u2018g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ba\u015fkan\u2019 Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131nda oldu\u011funa y\u00f6nelik ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 tek tek ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 asl\u0131nda hi\u00e7 de s\u00fcrpriz de\u011fil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu s\u00fcrecin son basama\u011f\u0131 Kanada\u2019da yap\u0131lan G-7 zirvesinde Trump ve \u0130ngiltere ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Keir Starmer ile yapm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmedir&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeyle birlikte, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de konu yasal zeminde ciddi bir tart\u0131\u015fmaya yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f olsa da, ve de Starmer\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fte insan haklar\u0131 avukatl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f ve 2000\u2019li y\u0131llar\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda, Tony Blair y\u00f6netiminin Irak i\u015fgalini ele\u015ftirmi\u015f olan bir ki\u015fi olsa da, t\u0131pk\u0131 Tony Blair gibi benzer bir s\u00fcrece evrilmekte oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek yanl\u0131\u015f olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bunun temel nedeni, Starmer\u2019\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Trump liderli\u011finin olmas\u0131d\u0131r&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu noktada, Trump\u2019\u0131n bu geli\u015fmeye gayet haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011fu, hatta bu geli\u015fmeyi y\u00f6netip pl\u00e2nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek abart\u0131 olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00d6yle ki, \u0130ran ruhani lideri Ayetullah Ali Hamaney\u2019in bedeninin ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131l\u0131p kald\u0131r\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131na karar verme noktas\u0131na kadar ula\u015fan, bir Trump n\u00fcfuzunun ortada oldu\u011fu a\u015fik\u00e2r&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u00d6tekiler?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>13 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeleri politik-teolojik ba\u011flam\u0131yla ele almak kadar, bunun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ve \u00f6tesinde boyutlar\u0131 oldu\u011funu da unutmamak gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Burada dikkat \u00e7eken nokta, \u0130srail\u2019in bug\u00fcne kadar ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi siyasi ve \u00f6zellikle de, askeri giri\u015fimlerinin san\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n aksine, Bat\u0131 ya da kimilerinin ifadesiyle, H\u0131ristiyan d\u00fcnyas\u0131ndan gelmedi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k se\u00e7ik ortaya koymak gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu durumu, yukar\u0131da k\u0131smen ABD\u2019nin ve ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 rolle g\u00fcndeme getirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kald\u0131 ki, ortada ABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda di\u011fer H\u0131ristiyan ve Yahudi teolojisi\/dini ile ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131 olmayan di\u011fer unsurlar\u0131n, ulus devletlerin de, \u015fu veya bu \u015fekilde, s\u00fcrece gayet \u00f6nemli katk\u0131da bulunduklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bir ba\u015fka ifadeyle dile getirmek gerekirse, teolojik ba\u011flamda ortada bir Yahudi-H\u0131ristiyan dengesi, tehdidi, sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 gibi geli\u015fmeleri teolojik platformda ele alacak, a\u00e7\u0131klayacak bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n, bizi gayet yanl\u0131\u015f bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceye sevk edece\u011fini g\u00fcndeme getirmek gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu durum, Ortado\u011fu merkezli geli\u015fmelerinin sadece 2001\u2019den, veya 1991\u2019den ya da 1967 y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 aksine, 1948\u2019i de a\u015facak \u015fekilde, 19. y\u00fczy\u0131l \u015fartlar\u0131nda olu\u015fan ve geli\u015fme g\u00f6steren d\u00f6nemin, jeo-politik ve jeo-ekonomik ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n belirleyicili\u011fi ile anlamland\u0131rmak gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>S\u00f6z konusu geli\u015fmeleri gerek, 19. y\u00fczy\u0131l gerekse devam\u0131 itibar\u0131yla, 20. y\u00fczy\u0131l ba\u011flamlar\u0131 ile uzun d\u00f6nemli olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fczde kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za din\u2019in, teoloji-politi\u011finin \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n, Bat\u0131\u2019daki geli\u015fmeler nezdinde pek de, ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir ba\u011flama oturmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mehmet \u00d6zay &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;20.06.2025 \u0130srail\u2019in, kendini tehdit alt\u0131nda hissetti\u011fi ya da ulusal g\u00fcvenli\u011finin tehdit alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu iddias\u0131ndan hareketle, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc tesislere y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131 farkl\u0131 bir y\u00f6ne do\u011fru evrildi. Geli\u015fmelerin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131ndan k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre sonra, bir ba\u015fka ifadeyle, bir hafta \u00f6nce kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m yaz\u0131da, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu sorunun rejim oldu\u011funa de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015ftim. \u0130srail [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":5916,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5915","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gunluk-yazilar","category-ortadogumiddle-east"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5915","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5915"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5915\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5917,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5915\/revisions\/5917"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5916"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5915"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5915"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5915"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}