{"id":5675,"date":"2025-02-04T03:53:38","date_gmt":"2025-02-04T03:53:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/?p=5675"},"modified":"2025-02-04T03:53:39","modified_gmt":"2025-02-04T03:53:39","slug":"abdden-tarif-celiskileri-ve-cin-karsiti-blok-tariff-contradictions-from-the-u-s-and-anti-china-bloc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/abdden-tarif-celiskileri-ve-cin-karsiti-blok-tariff-contradictions-from-the-u-s-and-anti-china-bloc\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD\u2019den tarif \u00e7eli\u015fkileri ve \u00c7in kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 blok \/ Tariff contradictions from the U.S. and anti-China bloc"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Mehmet \u00d6zay                                                                                                                                04.02.2025<\/strong><br>ABD\u2019de, ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifleri s\u00f6ylemi prati\u011fe ge\u00e7meye ba\u015flad\u0131\u2026<br>Trump\u2019un, Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u201ctarifleri ba\u015flatt\u0131k\u201d ve ard\u0131ndan, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc, \u201ctarifleri ge\u00e7ici olarak durdurduk\u201d demesiyle beklenen hareketli bir d\u00f6neme girildi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<br>\u0130ki g\u00fcn arayla, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n s\u00fcper g\u00fcc\u00fc ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n birbiriyle \u00e7eli\u015fen iki \u00f6nemli a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n liderlik, vizyon, g\u00fcvenilirlik vb. gibi ba\u011flamlar\u0131n\u0131 konu\u015fmak beyhude g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<br>Son birka\u00e7 g\u00fcnde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan bu geli\u015fme, 2016\u2019dan bu yana uluslararas\u0131 politikada ve de ili\u015fkilerde, Trump\u2019la ba\u015flayan s\u00fcrecin niteliksel ba\u011flam\u0131nda bir kayma olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koymas\u0131yla \u00f6nem arz ediyor.<br>K\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce, d\u00fcnyaya istikrar getirme s\u00f6ylemini zikreden bir ba\u015fkan\u0131n, \u00fclkesinin ve kom\u015fu \u00fclkelerin yani, Meksika ve Kanada ile ekonomik ili\u015fkilerine dair birbiriyle \u00e7eli\u015fen ve ekonomi alan\u0131n\u0131 kutupla\u015ft\u0131ran s\u00f6yleminin, ba\u015fkan\u2019\u0131n di\u011fer \u00f6zellikle de, siyasal s\u00f6ylemleri ve pratikleri konusunda neler olup olamayaca\u011f\u0131na dair bir fikir veriyor.<br><strong>Hareketlilik<\/strong><br>Giri\u015f c\u00fcmlesinde dikkat \u00e7ekti\u011fim hareketlili\u011fin nedeni a\u00e7\u0131k\u2026<br>ABD d\u0131\u015f ticaretinde en y\u00fcksek hacme sahip ilk iki \u00fclkesi yani, Meksika ve Kanada\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik olarak, 1 \u015eubat Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc il\u0203n edilen, y\u00fczde 25\u2019lik g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi yapt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcn yani, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u201cbir ay s\u00fcreyle dondurulmas\u0131\u201d olu\u015fturuyor.<br>Hareketlilik bununla da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fil.<br>Meksika\u2019da ba\u015fkan Claudia Sheinbaum\u2019\u0131n ve Kanada\u2019da ba\u015fbakan Justin Trudeau\u2019nun s\u0131n\u0131r ticaretine ve g\u00fcvenli\u011fine y\u00f6nelik acil giri\u015fimlerine dayan\u0131yor.<br>Her iki \u00fclkenin yani, Meksika ve Kanada\u2019n\u0131n, ABD ile s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olarak ald\u0131klar\u0131 karar\u0131n bu iki \u00fclkenin askeri, idari, ekonomik ve de siyasi g\u00fcndemlerini belirlemeye ve de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zlemleniyor.<br>G\u00f6zden ka\u00e7an bir durum ise ABD\u2019nin de benzer \u015fekilde \u00f6rne\u011fin, Meksika\u2019n\u0131n i\u00e7 g\u00fcvenli\u011fi i\u00e7in tehdit unsuru ta\u015f\u0131ya \u00fcst d\u00fczey ate\u015fli silahlar\u0131n ka\u00e7ak yollardan Meksiya\u2019y agiri\u015fini engelleme konusunda tedbirleri art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 oldu.<br>Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, Meksika ve Kanada taraf\u0131ndan bir yandan, ABD ile \u2018\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131\u2019 de\u011fil, \u2018anla\u015fmay\u0131\u2019 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz yollu bir yakla\u015f\u0131m ortaya konurken, ayn\u0131 zamanda iki \u00fclke toplumunda ABD kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 \u2018milliyet\u00e7ilik\u2019 olgusunun y\u00fckselme e\u011filimine girdi\u011fi de g\u00f6zlemleniyor.<br>Ortada gayet ilgin\u00e7 bir durum bulundu\u011funa ku\u015fku yok\u2026<br>\u00d6rne\u011fin, Trump\u2019\u0131n, Kanada\u2019y\u0131 51. ABD eyaleti yapma tasar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n Kanada h\u00fck\u00fcmeti bir yana, halk\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan nas\u0131l alg\u0131lan\u0131p kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k bulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcp beklemek gerekir.<br>\u00d6te yandan, ABD\u2019nin t\u0131pk\u0131 2016\u2019da oldu\u011fu ve de, 2024 se\u00e7im kampanyas\u0131nda Trump taraf\u0131ndan s\u0131kl\u0131kla dile getirildi\u011fi \u00fczere, temel hedefinin \u00c7in oldu\u011funu unutmamak gerekir.<br><strong>Hedeften sapma m\u0131?<\/strong><br>Trump\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkanl\u0131k koltu\u011funa oturmas\u0131yla birlikte, \u00c7in\u2019le ticaret ili\u015fkilerine dair a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131mlar bekleniyordu\u2026<br>Beklenti Trump\u2019\u0131n, \u00c7in\u2019e y\u00f6nelik y\u00fcksek g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi il\u0203n\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi\u2026<br>Ne, se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinini y\u00fczde 60\u2019l\u0131k s\u00f6ylemi ne de, buna yak\u0131n bir oranla \u00c7in\u2019e hedefe konulmu\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fckm\u00fcyor \u015fimdilik.<br>Kan\u0131mca, Trump, kom\u015fu \u00fclkeler Meksika ve Kanada\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik olarak ortaya koydu\u011fu ve \u201cdeneysel\u201d olarak adland\u0131rabilece\u011fim tarif politikas\u0131n\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019e y\u00f6nelik ba\u015flataca\u011f\u0131 uzun erimli ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n bir modeli gibi kurguluyor.<br>Bu iki \u00fclkenin, ABD\u2019nin kom\u015fu \u00fclke olmas\u0131 ve g\u00fcmr\u00fck tariflerinin farkl\u0131 baz\u0131 nedenleri ve\/ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131lar\u0131 beklentisi oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenmesi dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, \u00c7in\u2019den ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir bir y\u00f6n\u00fc bulunuyor.<br>Bunun kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, -yukar\u0131da de\u011findi\u011fim \u00fczere, Meksika ve Kanada y\u00f6netimlerinin s\u0131n\u0131r g\u00fcvenli\u011fi konusunda acilen ald\u0131klar\u0131 karar olu\u015fturuyor.<br>Nihayetinde, ABD\u2019nin en \u00f6nemli ekonomik -temelde bununla da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fil!- rakibinin \u00c7in olmas\u0131, ABD ekonimisinin yerli yerine oturmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamada, Kanada ve Meksika\u2019dan ziyade \u00c7in\u2019in belirleyece\u011fine ku\u015fku bulunmuyor.<br>Bu durum bize, acaba Trump, \u00c7in\u2019e y\u00f6nelik olarak Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc il\u0203n etti\u011fi y\u00fczde 10\u2019luk tarif yerine, se\u00e7im kampanyas\u0131 d\u00f6neminde dile getirdi\u011fi \u00fczere, \u201cy\u00fczde 60\u2019l\u0131k tarif uygulamay\u0131 siyasi-ekonomik bir karar olarak il\u0203n ederse neler olabilir?\u201d sorusunu g\u00fcndeme getirmemize neden oluyor.<br>Bir ba\u015fka \u00f6nemli alternatif geli\u015fme ise, \u00c7in kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin ekonomik bir blokla harekete ge\u00e7mesi olacakt\u0131r.<br>Bu durum, yukar\u0131da \u2018deneysel\u2019 diyerek dikkat \u00e7ekti\u011fim Meksika ve Kanada \u00f6rneklerinden ba\u015flayarak zamanla i\u00e7ine Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019ni, Asya-Pasifik\u2019te Japonya\u2019y\u0131, Avustralya\u2019y\u0131 vs. Yan\u0131na alarak \u00c7in\u2019i ekonomik olarak k\u00f6\u015feye s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rma politikas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilir.<br><strong>\u00c7in\u2019le hesapla\u015fma<\/strong><br>Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019e y\u00f6nelik y\u00fczde 10\u2019luk tarif uygulamas\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019de ve de t\u00fcm b\u00f6lgede, bug\u00fcn \u00f6\u011fle saatlerinden itibaren hissedilmeye ba\u015flanacak\u2026<br>\u00c7in\u2019in nas\u0131l bir kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verece\u011fi merak konusu\u2026<br>Kanada ba\u015fbakan\u0131 ve Meksika devlet ba\u015fkan\u0131yla g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fen Trump, \u015ei Cinping\u2019le g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f de\u011fil\u2026<br>Muhtemel bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmenin bu hafta sonuna do\u011fru olaca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<br>Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, ABD y\u00f6netiminin \u00c7in\u2019e y\u00f6nelik g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifleri uygulamas\u0131 yeni de\u011fil aksine, on y\u0131l \u00f6nce 1. Trump d\u00f6neminin \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc geli\u015fmelerin devam\u0131 niteli\u011finde g\u00f6rmek gerekir.<br>Arada, ABD\u2019de ya\u015fanan Biden d\u00f6neminin \u00c7in\u2019e y\u00f6nelik g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifleri konusundaki yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n, \u2018ekonomi\u2019 alan\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesiyle -bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde- devaml\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini ileri s\u00fcrmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<br>Bug\u00fcn, yani 2. Trump d\u00f6neminin g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifleri yapt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n sadece, ABD-\u00c7in aras\u0131nda bir ekonomik rekabet olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclemeyecek ve\/ya bu iki \u00fclkeyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 etkileri olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6z\u00fckm\u00fcyor.<br>Bu durum, bize daha geni\u015f bir perspektiften g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifleri konusunun ele al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<br><strong>Ni\u00e7in g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifi?<\/strong><br>Trump\u2019\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 son derece basit\u2026<br>S\u00f6ylem k\u0131saca \u015fu: ABD\u2019nin y\u0131llarca ilgili \u00fclkelerle ticaretinde s\u00fcrekli a\u00e7\u0131klar vermesi, \u00fclkenin dinami\u011fini olu\u015fturan orta s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n ekonomik geli\u015fimine ket vurdu.<br>Ve sorunun a\u015f\u0131labilmesi yani, ABD\u2019de \u00fcretim sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcm, yatay ve dikey kurumsal ve toplumsal a\u011flar\u0131n yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi i\u00e7in ABD \u00fcretimini hem, i\u00e7 piyasa hem de d\u0131\u015f ticarete y\u00f6nelik olarak art\u0131rmak gerekiyor.<br>Trump, \u00fclke i\u00e7inde \u00fcretimin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n alternatif yolu olarak, ABD\u2019ye ticaret fazlas\u0131 veren \u00fclkelerin firmalar\u0131n\u0131 ABD\u2019de -\u00e7ok \u00f6zel ko\u015fullarla- yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmaya davet ediyor.<br>Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc Meksika, Kanada ve \u00c7in h\u00fck\u00fcmetleri\u2019nin nas\u0131l kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verece\u011fini bilmiyoruz. Ancak b\u00f6yle bir \u015feyin olmas\u0131 demek, hi\u00e7 ku\u015fku yok ki, bu \u00fclkelerin kendi i\u00e7 ekonomik kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n ve de alt yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fime u\u011framas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelecektir.<br>T\u00fcm bunlar olurken, Trump\u2019\u0131n t\u00fcm bu icraatlar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndaki gizli \u00f6znesi Amerikan halk\u0131n\u0131n, g\u00fcmr\u00fck tariflerinin y\u00fckselmesiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015facaklar\u0131 y\u00fcksek enflasyon durumunda nas\u0131l kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vereceklerini ise bekleyip g\u00f6rmek gerekiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mehmet \u00d6zay 04.02.2025ABD\u2019de, ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifleri s\u00f6ylemi prati\u011fe ge\u00e7meye ba\u015flad\u0131\u2026Trump\u2019un, Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u201ctarifleri ba\u015flatt\u0131k\u201d ve ard\u0131ndan, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc, \u201ctarifleri ge\u00e7ici olarak durdurduk\u201d demesiyle beklenen hareketli bir d\u00f6neme girildi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.\u0130ki g\u00fcn arayla, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n s\u00fcper g\u00fcc\u00fc ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n birbiriyle \u00e7eli\u015fen iki \u00f6nemli a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n liderlik, vizyon, g\u00fcvenilirlik vb. gibi ba\u011flamlar\u0131n\u0131 konu\u015fmak beyhude g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.Son birka\u00e7 g\u00fcnde ortaya [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":5676,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5675","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-asya-pasifik","category-gunluk-yazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5675","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5675"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5675\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5677,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5675\/revisions\/5677"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5676"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5675"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5675"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5675"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}