{"id":5185,"date":"2024-04-12T15:24:11","date_gmt":"2024-04-12T15:24:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/?p=5185"},"modified":"2024-04-12T15:24:12","modified_gmt":"2024-04-12T15:24:12","slug":"cin-buyuk-olmanin-bedelini-odeyebilecek-mi-can-china-pay-the-price-of-being-great","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/cin-buyuk-olmanin-bedelini-odeyebilecek-mi-can-china-pay-the-price-of-being-great\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7in b\u00fcy\u00fck olman\u0131n bedelini \u00f6deyebilecek mi? \/ Can China pay the price of being great?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Mehmet \u00d6zay &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 12.04.2024<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c7in\u2019in son d\u00f6nemde, G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi sorununda Filipinler\u2019le somut olarak kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya gelmesi, bir s\u00fcredir k\u00fcresel sava\u015f senaryolar\u0131nda yeri olan bir b\u00f6lgede, \u201camaca yakla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor mu?\u201d sorusunu sormay\u0131 gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu durum, b\u00f6lgedeki ilgili \u00fclkelerin s\u0131radan bir k\u0131ta sahanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ihl\u00e2liyle ili\u015fkilendirilmelerinin \u00f6tesinde boyutlar i\u00e7eriyor&#8230; &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca, b\u00f6ylesi bir \u201ck\u00fcresel\u201d boyutta seyredecek olas\u0131 geli\u015fmelerin, \u00c7in\u2019le ve Do\u011fu ve G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesinde bir rasyonaliteye sahip oldu\u011funu da gizli a\u00e7\u0131k ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu noktada sorulmas\u0131 gereken soru, \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck olman\u0131n bedelini k\u00fcresel pl\u00e2nda \u00f6demeye haz\u0131r olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u00c7in\u2019in geli\u015fimi sorunu<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c7in\u2019in \u00f6zellikle, 2013\u2019den bu yana, G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi (<em>South China Sea<\/em>) \u00fczerinde \u00e7izdi\u011fi haritay\u0131 -\u00f6ncelikle b\u00f6lge \u00fclkeleri nezdinde- dikte etmekle kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 aksine, pratikte kendi ulusal g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ba\u011flam\u0131nda g\u00fcvenlik zincirinin halkalar\u0131n\u0131 \u2018istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde\u2019, tek tek \u00f6rmekle me\u015fgul oldu\u011fu bir s\u00fcrece tan\u0131kl\u0131k ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Soruna, pek de dikkate al\u0131nmayan bir boyutuyla bakal\u0131m \u00f6nce&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>K\u00fcresel ekonominin iki numaras\u0131 haline gelmi\u015f ve bu ekonomik geli\u015fmi\u015fli\u011finde, \u00f6rne\u011fin, Singapur, Tayvan, Japonya ve G\u00fcney Kore gibi Do\u011fu ve G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya \u00fclkelerinin <em>know-how<\/em>, teknoloji ve insan kaynaklar\u0131 tranfseri, e\u011fitim vb. gibi alanlarda az\u0131msanmayacak katk\u0131s\u0131 ve deste\u011fini bulmu\u015f olan \u00c7in\u2019in ni\u00e7in, bug\u00fcne kadar kendi b\u00f6lgesinde ortak bir g\u00fcvenlik te\u015fkil ettiremedi\u011fi sorusu gayet \u00f6nemlidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Ekonomi yeter neden (mi?)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c7in\u2019in son yar\u0131m y\u00fczy\u0131la yay\u0131lan ekonomik geli\u015fmi\u015fli\u011finin bug\u00fcn geldi\u011fi nokta sadece, bu ekonomi olgusuyla a\u00e7\u0131klanamayacak boyutlar i\u00e7eriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Temelde, \u00c7in\u2019de ulusal g\u00fcvenlik \u00e7er\u00e7evesine oturtulmu\u015f askeri yap\u0131lanman\u0131n rol\u00fc \u00f6zellikle, son yirmi y\u0131ldaki geli\u015fmelerle g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcndedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c7in sadece, k\u00fcresel \u00fcretim merkezi haline gelmekle kalmam\u0131\u015f, elde etti\u011fi ekonomik kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 kendini i\u00e7inde buldu\u011funu varsayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik iklimini \u015fekillendirecek bir askeri yap\u0131lanmaya y\u00f6nelmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu durumda, daha geni\u015f bir ba\u011flamda, \u00c7in\u2019in ekonomik geli\u015fmi\u015fli\u011fi ve bunun, askeri yap\u0131lanmas\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemesiyle olu\u015fan duruma dair, mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 geli\u015ftirmemiz gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Naif bir yakla\u015f\u0131ma, askeri yap\u0131lanmay\u0131 ekonomik geli\u015fmi\u015flik veya vars\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131 koruman\u0131n yolu olarak kabul edip, burada c\u00fcmleye son noktay\u0131 koymak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ancak, bu durum, bize \u00c7in\u2019in benimsedi\u011fi veya \u00c7in\u2019e benimsetilmi\u015f olan bir eko-politi\u011fin detaylar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zmezden gelmemize yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 gibi bir sorunu da beraberinde getirecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bat\u0131 eko-politik zorunlulu\u011fu<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c7in\u2019in ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin ard\u0131ndan ne\u015fet eden, s\u00f6z konusu askeri yap\u0131lanmas\u0131n\u0131n neye tekab\u00fcl etti\u011fini sadece, \u00c7in\u2019in kendi i\u00e7 b\u00fcnyesine, \u00f6rne\u011fin, son yar\u0131m y\u00fczy\u0131ld\u0131r \u00c7in\u2019i y\u00f6neten siyasi elitin ya da bu siyasi elitin kendilerine referans olarak belirledikleri baz\u0131 tarihi vakalara bakarak anlamak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nihayetinde, \u00c7in\u2019in ekonomik geli\u015fmi\u015fli\u011fine yol a\u00e7an dinamiklerin, \u00c7in\u2019i b\u00f6ylesi bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye davet edenin, Bat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce sistemi -bir ba\u015fka ifadeyle Bat\u0131 eko-politi\u011fi- oldu\u011funu unutmamak gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu durum, bize, Bat\u0131 eko-politi\u011finde ekonomik kalk\u0131nman\u0131n, ulusal g\u00fcvenlik gibi bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde s\u0131radan ve alelade ancak, askeri yap\u0131lanma ve bunun d\u0131\u015fa a\u00e7\u0131k y\u00fcz\u00fcyle, gayet k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 bir boyutunun oldu\u011funu fark etmemizi gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En az\u0131ndan, 19. y\u00fczy\u0131ldan itibaren kendini k\u00fcresele yayarak ortaya koyan Bat\u0131 Avrupa ekonomik kalk\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir yandan, bunu \u2018y\u00fcksek s\u00f6m\u00fcrgecilik\u2019 s\u00fcreciyle devam ettirme arzusuyla depre\u015firken \u00f6te yandan, bu ekonomik geli\u015fmi\u015fli\u011fini kan\u0131tlama iddias\u0131n\u0131 askeri boyutlar\u0131yla ortaya koymu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Askeri g\u00fc\u00e7 peki\u015fmesi<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00c7in\u2019in, gecikmi\u015f bir ekonomik kalk\u0131nm\u0131\u015fl\u0131k s\u00fcrecinde bug\u00fcn geldi\u011fi nokta, temelde, Bat\u0131 Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ve akabinde, Kuzey Amerika\u2019n\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ekonomik kalk\u0131nma sonras\u0131nda gelen askeri g\u00fc\u00e7 peki\u015fmesidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c7in\u2019de, bug\u00fcn has\u0131l olan s\u00f6z konusu bu askeri g\u00fc\u00e7 peki\u015fmesini, en az\u0131ndan iki ba\u011flamda ele almak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130lki, 1991\u2019den itibaren Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri\u2019ni \u201ctek g\u00fc\u00e7\u201d haline getiren So\u011fuk Sava\u015f (<em>Cold War<\/em>) sonras\u0131 yap\u0131lanma kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, \u201cHay\u0131r, art\u0131k d\u00fcnya \u2018tek g\u00fc\u00e7\u2019le idare edilemiyor\u201d noktas\u0131na gelindi\u011finde, \u00c7in\u2019in ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin ard\u0131ndan, askeri g\u00fc\u00e7 peki\u015fmesinin de buna do\u011frudan il\u00e2ve edilmesiyle, yeni bir k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7 do\u011furarak b\u00f6ylece, bir \u201c\u00e7ift kutuplu\u201d d\u00fcnya yarat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu durumda, tek kutuplulu\u011fun (<em>uni-polarity<\/em>) do\u011furdu\u011fu sorunlar ortadan kalkabilecek ya da en az\u0131ndan, naif bir ifadeyle, sorunlar rutin bir mahiyet arz edecek ancak, bu sorunlar nihai bir tehdid ortam\u0131na var\/d\u0131r\u0131l\/madan s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130kinci durumda, \u00c7in siyasi elitinin -bir t\u00fcr inkitamc\u0131 bir ruhla- tarihe referansla kendini mevcut g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda konumland\u0131r\u0131rken, yeg\u00e2ne g\u00fc\u00e7 olma vasf\u0131n\u0131 giderek kendinde toplamas\u0131 \u00e7abas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Asl\u0131nda, tam da bu, \u00c7in\u2019in son yirmi y\u0131lda agresif olarak askeri yap\u0131lanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndaki ger\u00e7ek&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu durum, ortada bir denge durumdan de\u011fil, \u00c7in\u2019e avantaj kazand\u0131rm\u0131\u015f ya da kazand\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131lan bir dengesizlik halinden bahsetmeyi gerektirecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c7in\u2019in b\u00f6ylesi bir se\u00e7e\u011fi g\u00fcndeme getirirken, ba\u015fvurabilece\u011fi -orta ve yak\u0131n vade- tarihsel nedenleri biliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yani, 19. y\u00fczy\u0131ldaki \u0130ngilizler marifetiyle maruz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 Afyon Sava\u015flar\u0131 ile 20. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u2019da 1930\u2019lardaki Japon i\u015fgali s\u00fcreci&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Rakip ABD<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu her iki somut, tarihi geli\u015fmenin akt\u00f6rlerinin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ve \u00f6tesinde, \u00c7in\u2019in hedef alabilece\u011fi g\u00fcc\u00fcn, bug\u00fcn tam da kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda rakibi olarak yer alan ABD oldu\u011fu kesindir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Baz\u0131 zorlamalar d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, teritoryal ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bulunmayan bu iki \u00fclkeyi kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya getirebilecek maddi nedenleri b\u00f6lgesel ittifak g\u00fc\u00e7leri ba\u011flam\u0131nda bulmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00d6yle ki, bu noktada, \u201cABD ve ABD\u2019nin Asya-Pasifik\u2019teki en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc temsilcisi Japonya ve bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde Avustralya kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, dengeyi kendi lehine \u00e7evirebilecek bir askeri g\u00fcce ula\u015fmak \u00c7in i\u00e7in vazge\u00e7ilmez bir \u00f6neme sahiptir\u201d c\u00fcmlesini kurmam\u0131z, en az\u0131ndan son on, on be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k s\u00fcre\u00e7te ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan pek de mahzurlu g\u00f6z\u00fckm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bunun \u00f6tesinde, G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi ba\u011flam\u0131nda Japonya ve Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n do\u011frudan herhangi bir denklemde yer almamas\u0131, ba\u015fka akt\u00f6rlerin veya nedenlerin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu durumda, Giri\u015f\u2019te dikkat \u00e7ekti\u011fim \u00fczere, \u00c7in\u2019in kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na, b\u00f6lgedeki dengeler i\u00e7erisinde g\u00f6rece orta-\u00f6l\u00e7ekli \u00fclkeler s\u0131ralamas\u0131nda yeri olan Filipinler\u2019in \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, bu \u00fclkenin kendi ulusal g\u00fcvenli\u011fini koruma gibi rasyonel \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesinde bir ba\u011flam\u0131 var.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c7in\u2019in, bug\u00fcne kadar kendi b\u00f6lgesinde ortak bir g\u00fcvenlik sahas\u0131 te\u015fkil etmek yerine, askeri g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc test edebilece\u011fi bir d\u00fczeye gelme \u00e7abas\u0131, temelde ekonomik kalk\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n do\u011frudan bir yans\u0131mas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nihai noktada, \u00c7in\u2019in bu ekonomik kalk\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 askeri yap\u0131lanmaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7inde yer almay\u0131 tercih etti\u011fi ya da davet edildi\u011fi eko-politik sistemin zorunlu bir sonucu oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rmek gerekiyor. &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mehmet \u00d6zay &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 12.04.2024 \u00c7in\u2019in son d\u00f6nemde, G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi sorununda Filipinler\u2019le somut olarak kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya gelmesi, bir s\u00fcredir k\u00fcresel sava\u015f senaryolar\u0131nda yeri olan bir b\u00f6lgede, \u201camaca yakla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor mu?\u201d sorusunu sormay\u0131 gerektiriyor. Bu durum, b\u00f6lgedeki ilgili \u00fclkelerin s\u0131radan bir k\u0131ta sahanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ihl\u00e2liyle ili\u015fkilendirilmelerinin \u00f6tesinde boyutlar i\u00e7eriyor&#8230; &nbsp; Ayr\u0131ca, b\u00f6ylesi bir \u201ck\u00fcresel\u201d boyutta seyredecek olas\u0131 geli\u015fmelerin, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":5186,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5185","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-asya-pasifik","category-gunluk-yazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5185","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5185"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5185\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5187,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5185\/revisions\/5187"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5186"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5185"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5185"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5185"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}