{"id":4640,"date":"2022-06-22T06:38:09","date_gmt":"2022-06-22T06:38:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/?p=4640"},"modified":"2022-06-22T06:40:19","modified_gmt":"2022-06-22T06:40:19","slug":"son-donemde-kuresel-gelismeler-ve-artan-nukleer-tehdit-global-issues-and-increasing-nuclear-threat-in-recent-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/son-donemde-kuresel-gelismeler-ve-artan-nukleer-tehdit-global-issues-and-increasing-nuclear-threat-in-recent-years\/","title":{"rendered":"Son d\u00f6nemde k\u00fcresel geli\u015fmeler ve artan n\u00fckleer tehdit \/ Global issues and increasing nuclear threat in recent years"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mehmet \u00d6zay\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 22.06.2022<\/strong><\/p>\n

Son birka\u00e7 y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeler, 21. y\u00fczy\u0131l insanl\u0131k durumunun ve uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkilerinin, ge\u00e7mi\u015fi bir y\u00fczy\u0131l \u00f6ncesine kadar uzanan ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki baz\u0131 benzerleriyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na neden oluyor.<\/p>\n

S\u00f6z konusu bu geli\u015fmelerin bir yan\u0131nda, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 sonlar\u0131 ve 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015flar\u0131nda, \u00c7in\u2019in Hubei Eyaleti\u2019ne ba\u011fl\u0131 Wuhan \u015fehrinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan kovid-19 bulunurken, \u00f6te yan\u0131nda Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019da sava\u015f hali yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Etkileri sa\u011fl\u0131ktan ekonomiye, e\u011fitimden yat\u0131r\u0131ma k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta hissedilen bu iki temel geli\u015fme, ulus-devletlerin ulusal g\u00fcvenliklerini tehdit boyutuyla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, bir s\u00fcredir tan\u0131k olundu\u011fu \u00fczere n\u00fckleer silahlanmada azami derecede bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemi\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

S\u00f6z konusu bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n boyutlar\u0131 sadece, n\u00fckleer silahlara sahip dokuz \u00fclke ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek gerekir.<\/p>\n

Bir yandan, bu \u00fclkeler mevcut n\u00fckleer silah kapasitelerini art\u0131rma ve Rusya \u00f6rne\u011finde oldu\u011fu gibi, tehdit alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hissettikleri \u00fclkeler kullan\u0131ma haz\u0131r hale getirirken, ABD ile Japonya ve G\u00fcney Kore \u00f6rneklerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi di\u011fer \u00fclkeler de, ya yeni ittifaklar veya var olan ittifaklar\u0131n geni\u015fletilmesiyle kendilerini olas\u0131 tehditlere kar\u015f\u0131 koruma alt\u0131na almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel tehditler: Tesad\u00fcf m\u00fc kas\u0131t m\u0131?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kovid-19\u2019un aralar\u0131nda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerinin de bulundu\u011fu toplumlarda, salt bir kamu sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorunu olmakla kalmay\u0131p ulusal g\u00fcvenlikleri tehdit edecek boyutta olmas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekiyordu.<\/p>\n

Kovid-19\u2019un \u00c7in\u2019de nas\u0131l ve hangi ko\u015fullarda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda \u015f\u00fcpheci yakla\u015f\u0131mlar, Bat\u0131\u2019da birden etkisini g\u00f6sterirken, insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ortak sorunu kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda i\u015fbirli\u011fi beklentileri yerini su\u00e7lu arama giri\u015fimlerinde kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 su\u00e7lamalara b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bu durum, kamu sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 tehdidi \u00fczerinden \u00fclkelerin birbirlerine kar\u015f\u0131 bir anlamda, sa\u011fl\u0131k ter\u00f6r\u00fc denilebilecek bir olguyu g\u00fcndeme getirirken, ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeler sadece, ilgili ulus-devletlerin sa\u011fl\u0131k bakanl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n alacaklar\u0131 tedbirlerle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmayan aksine, i\u00e7inde istihbarat ve askeri birimlerin de oldu\u011fu yo\u011fun ve hatta topyek\u00fcn bir m\u00fccadele t\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmakta oldu\u011funa \u015fahit olduk.<\/p>\n

Hen\u00fcz bu tehdidin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi s\u00f6ylenemese de, iki bu\u00e7uk y\u0131la varan etkisi ile Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerde temel ve yayg\u0131n bir sa\u011fl\u0131k problemi olarak \u00f6rne\u011fin, 1. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 d\u00f6neminde, 1915 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u0130spanya\u2019da ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan salg\u0131nla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ya da, bunun \u00f6tesinde ulusal g\u00fcvenli\u011fi tehdit boyutunun fark edilmeye ba\u015flanmas\u0131yla, Fransa devlet ba\u015fkan\u0131 Emanuel Macron gibi liderlerin dile getirdi\u011fi \u00fczere, 2. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 d\u00f6nemiyle k\u0131yaslanmay\u0131 hak eden bir y\u0131k\u0131m \u015feklinde alg\u0131land\u0131.<\/p>\n

24 \u015eubat 2022 tarihinde Rusya\u2019n\u0131n kom\u015fu \u00fclke Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 hedef alan istila giri\u015fimi ise, ABD \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki NATO\u2019nun Rusya ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fma sahas\u0131 olarak dikkat \u00e7ekerken, ak\u0131llara birden 1950\u2019li y\u0131llar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan So\u011fuk Sava\u015f y\u0131llar\u0131 geldi.<\/p>\n

\u0130nsanl\u0131k durumu ve y\u00f6netilebilirlik <\/strong><\/p>\n

Asl\u0131nda, y\u00fczy\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nem insanl\u0131k tarihi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan pek de \u00f6yle uzun bir ge\u00e7mi\u015f kabul edilmez.<\/p>\n

Ancak, yukar\u0131da dikkat \u00e7ekilen geli\u015fmeler, 21. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131 diyebilece\u011fimiz bu d\u00f6nemde, hem ulusal ve uluslararas\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131k alanlar\u0131nda, hem de ba\u015fta Avrupa K\u0131tas\u0131\u2019nda olmak \u00fczere ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan \u00fclkeleraras\u0131 krizlerin y\u00f6netilemiyor oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

A\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7as\u0131 bu noktada, yak\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fe dair yap\u0131lan olumsuz benzetmeler, tam da k\u00fcresel y\u00f6netim mekanizmas\u0131nda ciddi aksakl\u0131klar\u0131n oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n

\u00d6yle ki, \u00f6zellikle 1. ve 2. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015flar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, bir daha bu y\u0131k\u0131mlar\u0131 ya\u015famamaya y\u00f6nelik olarak te\u015fekk\u00fcl ettirilen k\u00fcresel d\u00fczen tedbirlerinin, bug\u00fcn art\u0131k esnekli\u011fini kaybetti\u011fine \u015f\u00fcphe bulunmuyor.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel d\u00fczen, kutupla\u015fma ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma hali sendromu<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kovid-19 gibi sa\u011fl\u0131k ve Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019daki sava\u015f gibi ciddi \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ortamlar\u0131, k\u00fcresel belirsizlik ve \u015f\u00fcphe ortam\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131\u015f\u0131na epeyce bir katk\u0131 yapmas\u0131 kadar, bu sorunlar\u0131 a\u015fmada i\u015fbirliklerinin bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmler yerine, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmac\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 k\u00f6r\u00fckleyecek bir y\u00f6nelim sergilemesi, umutlar\u0131n biraz daha yitirilmesi anlam\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu noktada, ulus-devletler ve \u00f6zellikle de, geli\u015fmi\u015f denilen \u00fclkeleriyle bunlar\u0131 yakalama iddias\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler, var olan veya s\u00fcrpriz olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan tehditler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ulusal g\u00fcvenliklerini yeniden ve ciddi anlamda g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irme gere\u011fi duyuyorlar.<\/p>\n

Bu durum, her ne kadar, Asya-Pasifik b\u00f6lgesinde ASEAN \u00f6rne\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, bir t\u00fcr \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm gibi sunulan \u00e7ok kutupluluk s\u00f6yleminin uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkilerde kendine kayda de\u011fer bir \u015fekilde yer bulmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7sa da, t\u0131pk\u0131 So\u011fuk Sava\u015f d\u00f6neminde oldu\u011fu gibi g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkilerinin de, iki temel kutup aras\u0131nda ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 veya ayr\u0131\u015fmakta oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n

S\u00f6z konusu bu iki kutuplulu\u011fun bir yan\u0131nda, Bat\u0131 ya da daha do\u011fru bir deyi\u015fle, Anglo-Sakson d\u00fcnyas\u0131 ve \u00fcretti\u011fi eko-politikalar\u0131 yer al\u0131rken \u00f6te yan\u0131nda, liderinin hangi \u00fclke oldu\u011fu gayet \u015f\u00fcpheli, ancak yine Bat\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan tan\u0131mlanan belki de, genel itibar\u0131yla di\u011ferleri diyebilece\u011fimiz \u00fclkeler grubu yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte, \u00c7in\u2019in \u00f6zellikle, Deniz ve Kara \u0130pek Yollar\u0131 projelerinin hedef ve ama\u00e7lar\u0131 aras\u0131nda gizli\/a\u00e7\u0131k kendine ba\u011fl\u0131\/ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 \u00fclkeler grubu olu\u015fturma arzusu yatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nacak olursa, ikinci grubun liderli\u011fine hevesli olan \u00c7in Halk Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u00f6zellikle, 2013 y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren devlet ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 koltu\u011funda oturan \u015ei Cinping\u2019in, neredeyse on y\u0131la varan eko-politikalar\u0131n\u0131 dikkatle incelemek gerekir. Yak\u0131n d\u00f6neme kadar, \u00f6zellikle de bu y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131na kadar s\u00fcre\u00e7, asl\u0131nda bu \u015fekilde i\u015fliyordu.<\/p>\n

Bir ba\u015fka deyi\u015fle, \u00c7in ekonomik alt yap\u0131 projeleri \u00f6zelinde geli\u015fme g\u00f6steren ve kendi s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131ndan ba\u015flayarak Orta Asya \u00fczerinden en u\u00e7ta Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019ya g\u00fcneyde Myanmar, Banglade\u015f ve Pakistan\u2019a Do\u011fu \u00c7in Denizi \u00fczerinden g\u00fcneye Bat\u0131 Pasifiklere ve Do\u011fu Afrika\u2019ya de\u011fin uzanan kara ve deniz ba\u011flant\u0131lar\u0131yla eko-politikalar\u0131 yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rma \u00e7abas\u0131 i\u00e7erisindeydi.<\/p>\n

Kald\u0131 ki, Pekin y\u00f6netiminin, bu ve benzeri stratejik yay\u0131ma ve geni\u015fleme politikalar\u0131nda, bug\u00fcn herhangi bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi, aksine yeni b\u00f6lgeler ve \u00fclkeler nezdindeki giri\u015fimleriyle bu y\u00f6nelimini geni\u015fletmektedir.<\/p>\n

A\u00e7\u0131k n\u00fckleer tehdit<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bilgi ve ileti\u015fim \u00e7a\u011f\u0131n\u0131n zirvesinin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde, k\u00fcresel sorunlar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda tek tek ulus-devletlerin ve b\u00f6lgesel birliklerin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm merkezli \u00e7abalar\u0131ndan bahsedilse de, temelde eko-politik gidi\u015fat\u0131n bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma evrenine do\u011fru oldu\u011fu da bir ger\u00e7ek.<\/p>\n

Ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00f6rne\u011fin, 2021 Ocak ile 2022 Ocak aylar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki k\u0131yaslamada, n\u00fckleer ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 f\u00fcze say\u0131s\u0131nda So\u011fuk Sava\u015f d\u00f6nemi sonlar\u0131ndan bu yana ilk defa en y\u00fcksek orana \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 k\u00fcresel sistemde g\u00fcvenden ziyade g\u00fcvensizlik yer etti\u011finin a\u00e7\u0131k bir g\u00f6stergesi olsa gerek.<\/p>\n

Bu n\u00fckleer yar\u0131\u015fta, Anglo-Sakson \u00fclkelerinin lideri konumundaki ABD\u2019nin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ise yukar\u0131da \u00f6zellikle son on y\u0131lda eko-politik yeniden yap\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131yla Bat\u0131\u2019ya tehdit olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan \u00c7in yerine Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bulunmas\u0131 gayet \u00f6nemli.<\/p>\n

Bu iki \u00fclkenin, yani ABD ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta n\u00fckleer ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 f\u00fczelerin y\u00fczde 90\u2019\u0131na yak\u0131n\u0131n\u0131 ellerinde bulundurmalar\u0131 asl\u0131nda, yaz\u0131da dikkat \u00e7ekilen So\u011fuk Sava\u015f d\u00f6neminin akt\u00f6rlerinin, geli\u015fmeler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda bir \u015fekilde yeniden konumland\u0131klar\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Buna il\u00e2ve olarak, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019daki istilas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, \u00f6rne\u011fin Kuzey Kore, \u0130ran gibi ellerinde n\u00fckleer silahlar bulunan \u00fclkeler, yenilenen tehditler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda bu alandaki \u00e7abalar\u0131ndaki hakl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiyorlar.<\/p>\n

Ya\u015fanan bu geli\u015fmeler, 1989\u2019da Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden sonra ba\u015flayan n\u00fckleer silahlardan ar\u0131nd\u0131rma ve k\u00fcresel toplumun iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi gibi ortak sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc konusundaki \u00e7abalar\u0131n akamete u\u011framas\u0131na neden oluyor. T\u00fcm bu geli\u015fmeler, g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde irili ufakl\u0131 t\u00fcm \u00fcyeleriyle k\u00fcresel sistemin iyi y\u00f6netil\/e\/medi\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mehmet \u00d6zay\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 22.06.2022 Son birka\u00e7 y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4641,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4640","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-asya-pasifik","category-gunluk-yazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4640","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4640"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4640\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4644,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4640\/revisions\/4644"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4641"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4640"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4640"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4640"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}