{"id":4037,"date":"2021-09-13T18:47:31","date_gmt":"2021-09-13T18:47:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/?p=4037"},"modified":"2021-09-13T18:47:31","modified_gmt":"2021-09-13T18:47:31","slug":"afganistanda-olasi-degisim-baris-mi-tehdit-mi-any-prostective-changes-in-afghanistan-peace-or-threat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/afganistanda-olasi-degisim-baris-mi-tehdit-mi-any-prostective-changes-in-afghanistan-peace-or-threat\/","title":{"rendered":"Afganistan\u2019da olas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fim: Bar\u0131\u015f m\u0131 tehdit mi? \/ Any prostective changes in Afghanistan: Peace or threat?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mehmet \u00d6zay\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 13.09.2021<\/strong><\/p>\n

Afganistan topraklar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fim ya\u015fan\u0131yor\u2026 Ancak de\u011fi\u015fimin etkilerinin nerelere varaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kestirmek en az\u0131ndan \u015fimdilik m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6z\u00fckm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Afganistan tarihi bir de\u011fi\u015fimi ya\u015farken, bu geli\u015fmenin sadece bu \u00fclke ve yak\u0131n \u00e7evresiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmayaca\u011f\u0131 kesin. Nas\u0131l ki, bundan yirmi y\u0131l \u00f6nce ABD s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde, tarihin en \u00f6nemli ter\u00f6r sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmesinin ard\u0131ndan, d\u00fcnya \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fimleri ya\u015fad\u0131ysa, bug\u00fcn de ayn\u0131 veya farkl\u0131 ancak, yeni de\u011fi\u015fimlerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmaya haz\u0131r olmak gerekir.<\/p>\n

Ya\u015fanan bu de\u011fi\u015fim sadece, Afganistan\u2019\u0131 daha \u00f6nce, 1996-2001 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda y\u00f6netme \u2018tecr\u00fcbesine!\u2019 sahip Taliban\u2019\u0131n silahl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 kullanarak iktidar olma m\u00fccadelesiyle bitmeyecektir.<\/p>\n

Bu de\u011fi\u015fimin boyutlar, ABD\u2019de bir sonraki se\u00e7imde iktidar de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi; \u00c7in\u2019le Afganistan topraklar\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fma, ABD y\u00f6netimi bir ba\u015fka co\u011frafyada bu \u00fclkeye kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6n alma \u00e7abas\u0131 sergileme ya da geni\u015f co\u011frafyalardaki M\u00fcsl\u00fcman toplumlar\u0131, t\u0131pk\u0131 bundan yirmi y\u0131l \u00f6nce oldu\u011fu gibi- yeniden tedirgin edecek politikalar\u0131 uygulama \u015feklinde tezah\u00fcr edebilecektir.<\/p>\n

Bat\u0131 ve do\u011fu tedirgin<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130ngiliz istihbarat\u0131 MI5\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131ndaki ismin ge\u00e7enlerde medyaya verdi\u011fi bir m\u00fcl\u00e2katta, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k ve ter\u00f6rizmle k\u00fcresel m\u00fccadeleye ba\u015flanaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 ve vurgusu gayet dikkat \u00e7ekicidir. \u015eef Ken McCallum, \u201c\u0130ngiltere\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik ter\u00f6rizm tehdidi ger\u00e7ek ve kal\u0131c\u0131d\u0131r\u201d diyor\u2026<\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan, birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn \u00f6nce Singapur Adalet ve \u0130\u00e7i\u015fleri bakan\u0131 K. Shanmugan\u2019\u0131n, g\u00fcvenlik birimlerine dayand\u0131rarak yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, \u201cTaliban\u2019\u0131n Afganistan\u2019da y\u00f6netimi ele ge\u00e7irmesinin ard\u0131ndan, G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya topraklar\u0131nda ter\u00f6rizm faaliyetleri artabilir\u201d diyor.<\/p>\n

S\u00f6z konusu bu iki ifadeyi yan yana koyup de\u011ferlendirmek gerekiyor\u2026<\/p>\n

Biri Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n g\u00f6be\u011finde \u00f6tekisi, Asya-Pasifik b\u00f6lgesinin tam ortas\u0131nda iki \u00f6nemli k\u00fcresel finans ve ekonomi merkezinden yap\u0131lan bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yabana at\u0131labilir mi?<\/p>\n

\u00d6zellikle, az \u00e7ok bildi\u011fimiz Singapur y\u00f6netiminin, sadece ekonomik istikrar ve ilgili alanlarda de\u011fil, bundan daha da \u00f6nemlisi g\u00fcvenlik konusundaki hassasiyeti bize, say\u0131n Shanmugan\u2019\u0131n bo\u015f konu\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Burada dikkat \u00e7ekilmesi gereken husus, Shanmugan\u2019\u0131n salt Singapur \u00f6zelinde konuyu dillendirmedi\u011fi, aksine t\u00fcm b\u00f6lgeyi yani, G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya topraklar\u0131n\u0131 kastederek bu a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve hassasiyeti g\u00f6sterdi\u011fidir.<\/p>\n

Bu iki \u00f6rnek \u00fclkenin yetkilerinin g\u00fcndeme getirdi\u011fi tedirginli\u011fin nedeni, 2001 y\u0131l\u0131nda ya\u015fananlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcndeme gelen geli\u015fmeler tabii ki..<\/p>\n

ABD pes eder (mi?)<\/strong><\/p>\n

2001 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki u\u00e7aklamalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, \u201cya bizdensiniz ya onlardan\u201d s\u00f6ylemini \u2018ter\u00f6rle k\u00fcresel m\u00fccadele\u2019 ba\u011flam\u0131nda d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda uygulamaya ge\u00e7iren, kendinden olmayan\u0131 \u201c\u015fer ekseniyle\u201d (axis of evil<\/em>) \u00f6zde\u015fle\u015ftiren ABD\u2019nin, bug\u00fcn Afganistan\u2019dan \u00e7ekilmesinin ba\u015fta Afganistan olmak \u00fczere, b\u00f6lge \u00fclkeleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrde bir ba\u015far\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n

Ancak, ABD\u2019nin ve temsil etti\u011fi Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n pes etti\u011fini, sahadan \u00e7ekildi\u011fini varsaymak ise m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6z\u00fckm\u00fcyor\u2026<\/p>\n

\u00d6ncelikle sorunun \u00f6nemli bir yan\u0131nda, Afganistan s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde ya\u015fayan k\u0131rk milyon civar\u0131ndaki Afganl\u0131n\u0131n, bu yeni geli\u015fme kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki tavr\u0131n\u0131n bilinmiyor olmas\u0131 yat\u0131yor. En az\u0131ndan, silahla kar\u015f\u0131lar\u0131nda duran y\u00f6netimin gizli\/a\u00e7\u0131k g\u00fcndeme getirmekte oldu\u011fu siville\u015fme s\u00f6yleminin hayata ge\u00e7irilmesini beklemek gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan, Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler Genel Sekreteri ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere \u00e7e\u015fitli uluslararas\u0131 \u00e7evrelerin Afganistan\u2019a \u201cinsani yard\u0131m\u201d (humanitarian aid<\/em>) s\u00f6ylemini son birka\u00e7 haftad\u0131r yinelemeleri, a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7as\u0131, Afgan halk\u0131n\u0131n kayda de\u011fer bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn \u2018temel insani ya\u015fam standartlar\u0131ndan yararlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k se\u00e7ik ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n

Bu durum, Taliban rejimine kar\u015f\u0131 bir sivil tepkiyi engelleyici fakt\u00f6r olabilece\u011fi gibi, hi\u00e7 beklenmedik tepkilerin kayna\u011f\u0131 da olabilir. Bu anlamda, Afganistan toplumsal yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ekli\u011fini iyi anlamak ve de\u011ferlendirmek gerekiyor. Ancak bu s\u00fcre\u00e7lerin t\u00fcm\u00fcnde ABD\u2019nin rol\u00fc olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil\u2026<\/p>\n

Yumu\u015fak\/sert g\u00fc\u00e7 <\/strong><\/p>\n

Bat\u0131\u2019y\u0131 var eden olgunun salt sahip oldu\u011fu silahlar olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlamak gerekir. 9 Eyl\u00fcl 2001 s\u00fcrecinin hemen ard\u0131ndan, ad\u0131na \u0130slam \u00fclkeleri denilen veya daha do\u011fru bir ifadeyle, halk\u0131n\u0131n kahir ekseriyetini M\u00fcsl\u00fcman kitlelerin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu devletler, ABD\u2019nin kap\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcnde s\u0131raya girerek \u2018sizinle beraberiz\u2019 mesaj\u0131n\u0131 gizli a\u00e7\u0131k ortaya koymu\u015flard\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bu mesaj\u0131n verilmesinde, herhalde ABD\u2019nin t\u00fcm bu \u00fclkelere y\u00f6nelik askeri harek\u00e2t yapaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesiyle olmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Temelde ekonomik ve siyasi ili\u015fkilerin ve bunlar\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel ve k\u00fcresel de\u011fi\u015fimlerle ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131 \u00e7ok daha \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6ylece i\u015fbirli\u011finin kap\u0131s\u0131 aralan\u0131rken, bunun siyasal ve toplumsal ara\u00e7lar\u0131 da birbiri ard\u0131na zuhur etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u2026<\/p>\n

N\u00fcfuz yap\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bunun ad\u0131, \u00f6ncelikle bir dini\/siyasi s\u00f6ylem olarak \u201c\u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 \u0130slam\u201d iken, pratikte \u00e7ok daha \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 geli\u015fmeler kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yordu. M\u00fcsl\u00fcman toplumlarda geleneksel \u0130slami okullarda m\u00fcfredat ve ders kitaplar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimlerinden, M\u00fcsl\u00fcman kad\u0131n\u0131n bilin\u00e7li\/bilin\u00e7siz, kas\u0131tl\u0131\/kas\u0131ts\u0131z feminist (muslim feminist!<\/em>) hareketlere oryantasyonuna; kapitalizmin t\u00fcketimci azg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (agressive consumerism<\/em>) \u00e7er\u00e7eveledi\u011fi yeni orta s\u0131n\u0131f M\u00fcsl\u00fcman toplum olu\u015fumlar\u0131ndan, Bat\u0131l\u0131 e\u011fitim kurumlar\u0131ndan icazetli ve M\u00fcsl\u00fcman toplumlar\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmeye\/y\u00f6netmeye aday akademisyenlere kadar, bir dizi toplumsal de\u011fi\u015fim kendini pe\u015fi s\u0131ra ortaya koyuyordu.<\/p>\n

Bunlar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131, zorlama\/ikna bir k\u0131sm\u0131 g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc faaliyetlerle g\u00fcndemde yer al\u0131yordu\u2026<\/p>\n

Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7lerin akt\u00f6rlerinin bizatihi, M\u00fcsl\u00fcman bireyler\/gruplar\/toplumlar oldu\u011fu ve kendinde\/\u00f6zg\u00fcn toplumsal de\u011fi\u015fimleri pl\u00e2nlam\u0131\u015f\/\u00f6z\u00fcmsemi\u015f\/\u00f6zlemi\u015f \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131mlarla ortaya konuldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n

Ancak bu yap\u0131la\u015fmalar\u0131 temelde g\u00fcd\u00fcleyici etkenin, Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n\/ABD\u2019nin a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u00fcresel m\u00fccadelenin par\u00e7as\u0131 olduklar\u0131 ve buzun uzant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n medya\/akademi d\u00fcnyas\u0131\/siyaset evreni\/sivil toplumculuk gibi farkl\u0131 alanlarda Bat\u0131 y\u00f6nelimli (Western-oriented<\/em>), Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n k\u00fcresel pl\u00e2nda a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fccadelenin\/sava\u015f\u0131n salt sava\u015f ara\u00e7 gere\u00e7leriyle olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131\/olmayaca\u011f\u0131; m\u00fccadelenin alan\u0131n\u0131n u\u00e7aklamalardan sorumlu yap\u0131lar\u0131n geli\u015fip desteklendi\u011fi Irak ve Afganistan\u2019la s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutulmayaca\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n

Yan\u0131lsama m\u0131?<\/strong><\/p>\n

O d\u00f6nem, ihtimaller dahilinde g\u00fcndeme getirilen ve bug\u00fcn Pepe Escobar gibi baz\u0131 yazarlar ve \u00e7evreler taraf\u0131ndan yeniden kan\u0131tlar\u0131 ortaya konularak tekrarlanan \u201cu\u00e7aklamalar\u0131n bir senaryo oldu\u011fu tezi\u201d dikkate al\u0131nsa bile, nihayetinde aradan ge\u00e7en yirmi y\u0131ll\u0131k s\u00fcre\u00e7 \u0130slam toplumlar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fimleri beraberinde getirmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

Kald\u0131 ki, bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te Fas\u2019tan Endonezya\u2019ya kadar, ABD ve Bat\u0131 ile i\u015fbirliklerini g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc\/g\u00f6n\u00fcls\u00fcz ba\u015flatan\/s\u00fcrd\u00fcren \u00e7e\u015fitli rejimlerin \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc, t\u0131pk\u0131 2001 \u00f6ncesinde oldu\u011fu gibi, bug\u00fcn halen varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmektedirler.<\/p>\n

Her ne kadar Taliban s\u00f6zc\u00fcleri k\u00fcresel tedirginli\u011fi yumu\u015fatmaya matuf a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yapsalar ve bunun i\u00e7inde, \u201c9 Eyl\u00fcl 2001 \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011furan el-Kaide gibi olu\u015fumlar\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na imk\u00e2n tan\u0131mayacaklar\u0131n\u0131 ileri s\u00fcrseler de, bug\u00fcn var oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekilen tehdit ve tehlike Afganistan\u2019daki yeni rejimle irtibatland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Afganistan topraklar\u0131n\u0131n ve hatta kom\u015fu \u00fclke Pakistan\u2019\u0131n tehdit ve tehlike unsurlar\u0131n\u0131 bar\u0131nd\u0131rmas\u0131\/\u00fcretmesi potansiyeli hi\u00e7 ku\u015fku yok ki, bu b\u00f6lgeyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmayacak ulusal, b\u00f6lgesel ve k\u00fcresel g\u00fcvenlik s\u00fcre\u00e7lerini yeniden do\u011furacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mehmet \u00d6zay\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 13.09.2021 Afganistan topraklar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fim ya\u015fan\u0131yor\u2026 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4038,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4037","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-asya-pasifik","category-gunluk-yazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4037","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4037"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4037\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4039,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4037\/revisions\/4039"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4038"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4037"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4037"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4037"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}