{"id":3555,"date":"2020-11-04T16:11:41","date_gmt":"2020-11-04T16:11:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/?p=3555"},"modified":"2020-11-08T20:08:09","modified_gmt":"2020-11-08T20:08:09","slug":"abdde-secim-ve-asya-pasifik-the-elections-in-the-us-and-asia-pacific","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/abdde-secim-ve-asya-pasifik-the-elections-in-the-us-and-asia-pacific\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD\u2019de se\u00e7im ve Asya-Pasifik \/ The elections in the US and Asia-Pacific"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mehmet \u00d6zay\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 04.11.2020<\/strong><\/p>\n

ABD\u2019de ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n sadece, bu \u00a0ulus-devletin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131ndan ibaret olmayacak sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 bulunuyor. Bu noktada, \u00f6zellikle bir \u00f6nceki ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imini k\u0131saca hat\u0131rlamakta fayda var.<\/p>\n

2016 ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imleri kampanyas\u0131nda Donald Trump, \u2018\u00d6nce Amerika\u2019 slogan\u0131yla ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan ve nihayetinde se\u00e7im kazanmas\u0131yla Asya-Pasifik siyasetinde \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fiklikler yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

TPPA\u2019m\u0131 RCEP\u2019mi?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bunlar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda, Trans Pasifik \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement<\/em>-TPPA) rafa kald\u0131rmas\u0131, sadece anla\u015fmaya taraf olan di\u011fer b\u00f6lge \u00fclkesi taraf\u0131ndan de\u011fil, bu y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ekonomik blo\u011fu olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan bu birli\u011fe girmeyi ama\u00e7layan di\u011fer \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in de bir s\u00fcrpriz olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte, geride kalan d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n bir s\u00fcreye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda TPPA\u2019den ziyade, yine Trump\u2019\u0131n serbest ticaret konusundaki yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 ve i\u00e7e kapanmac\u0131 politikalar\u0131n\u0131n sonucu olarak \u00c7in\u2019le ya\u015fanan ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 \u00e7ok daha \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel kapitalizm a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan gayet \u00e7eli\u015fkili bir duruma i\u015faret eden bu geli\u015fme kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, Asya-Pasifik b\u00f6lgesinde mevcut sistemin devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda Japonya, Singapur gibi \u00fclkelerin \u00f6nc\u00fc rol oynama \u00e7abalar\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n

TPPA yerine, \u00c7in\u2019in \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde olu\u015fturulan B\u00f6lgesel Kapsaml\u0131 Ekonomik \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership<\/em>-RCEP) bir alternatif olarak g\u00fcndeme gelmesine ra\u011fmen, bug\u00fcne kadar nihai anla\u015fma yap\u0131labilmi\u015f de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte, ge\u00e7en yaz aylar\u0131nda yap\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan, i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda imzalar\u0131n at\u0131lmas\u0131 beklentisi bulundu\u011funu da ifade edelim.<\/p>\n

G\u00fcven vermeyen ABD<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan, ge\u00e7en d\u00f6rt y\u0131l boyunca Trump y\u00f6netiminin bir geri bir ileri s\u00f6ylemi nedeniyle b\u00f6lge y\u00f6netimlerine ve halklar\u0131na g\u00fcven vermedi\u011fi ortada.<\/p>\n

Bu noktada, ba\u015fta b\u00f6lgedeki en \u00f6nemli iki m\u00fcttefiki konumundaki Japonya ve G\u00fcney Kore ile savunma harcamalar\u0131 konusundaki yeni s\u00f6ylem, bu iki \u00fclkede Trump y\u00f6netimine kar\u015f\u0131 baz\u0131 ekonomik tavizleri g\u00fcndeme getirse de, bunun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fine \u015f\u00fcpheyle bakmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

Bu iki \u00fclke ile ili\u015fkilerin ortaya koydu\u011fu \u00e7eli\u015fki kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Japonya\u2019n\u0131n kendi ordusunu d\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7lere kar\u015f\u0131 harekete ge\u00e7irebilecek \u015fekilde yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rma konusundaki kararl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ra\u011fmen, askeri i\u015fbirli\u011fi konusunda ABD\u2019siz duru\u015fu belirsizlikler i\u00e7erdi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n

Bu noktada, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n G\u00fcney Kore ile tarihsel olarak ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 has\u0131ml\u0131\u011f\u0131n, ABD olmaks\u0131z\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ikili ittifak\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n ise, \u015fu ortamda m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Japonya\u2019da sab\u0131k ba\u015fbakan \u015einzo Abe\u2019nin isim babas\u0131 oldu\u011fu Hint-Pasifik kavramsalla\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ABD taraf\u0131ndan benimsenmi\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, Asya-Pasifik\u2019te etkin olmay\u0131 istemeyen bir ABD y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in Hint-Pasifik farkl\u0131 zorluklar\u0131 da i\u00e7inde bar\u0131nd\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u00c7in\u2019le rekabette Hindistan\u2019\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ittifak olarak g\u00f6z\u00fcne kestiren Trump\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 Hindistan\u2019da siyasi liderlerin ve de halk\u0131n ayn\u0131 deste\u011fi verip vermeyece\u011fi \u015f\u00fcpheli.<\/p>\n

Se\u00e7im sonucu ve b\u00f6lgeyle ili\u015fkiler<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yukar\u0131da dikkat \u00e7ekilen ve nihayetinde, Asya-Pasifik b\u00f6lgesinde birincil \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yan ve ayn\u0131 zamanda k\u00fcresel ekonomi yap\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 ve geli\u015fimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz bir ba\u011flam\u0131 bulunan bu iki temel hususun yani, TPPA ve ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 konular\u0131n\u0131n, bug\u00fcn yar\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 kesinle\u015fmesi beklenen ABD se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131yla yine g\u00fcndeme gelece\u011fine ku\u015fku bulunmuyor.<\/p>\n

Se\u00e7imi Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n kazanmas\u0131 halinde, s\u00f6z konusu politikalarda bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklemek biraz hayal gibi.<\/p>\n

Ancak Joe Biden\u2019in ba\u015fkan olmas\u0131, gerginle\u015fen uluslararas\u0131 siyaseti ve kovid-19\u2019la giderek daralan k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi yeniden canland\u0131rma ve k\u00fcresel g\u00fcven ortam\u0131 tesisi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan alternatif politikalar\u0131 olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n

Biden\u2019li ABD y\u00f6netiminin Asya-Pasifik ile yeniden ve \u00f6zellikle de ekonomik i\u015fbirlikleri ve ticaret anla\u015fmalar\u0131 ile ba\u011flar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirme \u00e7abas\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 bir hamle olaca\u011f\u0131na ku\u015fku yok.<\/p>\n

Ancak burada dikkat \u00e7eken husus, Asya-Pasifik ili\u015fkilerinde sadece iki g\u00fc\u00e7, yani \u00c7in ve ABD\u2019nin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan s\u00f6z etmek yerine, Japonya gibi k\u00fcresel ekonominin d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fclkesi kadar, \u00f6rne\u011fin Singapur gibi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ancak yap\u0131c\u0131 politikalar\u0131yla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan \u00fclkelerin rol\u00fcn\u00fc yabana atmamak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019\u0131n kazanmas\u0131 halinde b\u00f6lgede di\u011fer dikkat \u00e7eken Tayvan, Hong Kong gibi sorunlu alanlarda, \u00c7in\u2019in \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmac\u0131 y\u00f6nelimi derinle\u015ftirece\u011fine ku\u015fku yok.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in\u2019in bu noktada elini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiren noktalardan biri hi\u00e7 ku\u015fku yok ki, Trump\u2019l\u0131 ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lge toplumlar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan takdir edici politikalar ortaya koyamam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan, Biden\u2019in ba\u015fkanl\u0131k koltu\u011funa oturmas\u0131n\u0131n, ba\u015fta ekonomik ili\u015fkiler olmak \u00fczere b\u00f6lge ile yeniden ba\u015flat\u0131lacak i\u015fbirliklerinin olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131 yumu\u015fak g\u00fc\u00e7 yap\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131na imk\u00e2n tan\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n

Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, b\u00fcy\u00fck beklentiler i\u00e7in girmemekle birlikte, Biden y\u00f6netimince bu y\u00f6nde at\u0131lacak ad\u0131mlar, b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinin de deste\u011fiyle, en az\u0131ndan b\u00f6lgede son derece gerginle\u015fen Tayvan, Hong Kong sorunlar\u0131na stat\u00fckoyu yeniden sa\u011flay\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde geli\u015fmelere konu olabilir.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6lge \u00fclkeleri pragmatik yakla\u015f\u0131yor<\/strong><\/p>\n

Asya-Pasifik b\u00f6lgesi \u00fclkeleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgedeki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 farkl\u0131 i\u015flevsellikler anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n

Bunun ba\u015f\u0131nda, k\u00fcresel ekonominin ikinci s\u0131ras\u0131nda yer almakla birlikte, \u00c7in\u2019in siyasi rejiminin do\u011furdu\u011fu sorunlar ve bunun \u00f6zellikle, G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi boyutunda bir tehdit unsuru olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Bu anlamda, ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgedeki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir dengeleyici unsur olmas\u0131, uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkiler teorilerinde iki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmac\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00fclkelerin \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na hizmet eden denge ortam\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. \u0130lk etapta aralar\u0131nda sayabilece\u011fimiz, Singapur, Endonezya, Malezya gibi b\u00f6lge \u00fclkeleri de a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7as\u0131 bundan yana.<\/p>\n

Bu nedenle, b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinin ABD\u2019yi \u00f6zellikle ticaret ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar noktas\u0131nda b\u00f6lgede g\u00f6rmeyi arzu ederken, askeri varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n da en az \u00c7in kadar tehditk\u00e2r \u00f6zellikler ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131ndan rahats\u0131zlar.<\/p>\n

Bunun en son \u00f6rne\u011fini, ABD d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakan\u0131 Mike Pompeo\u2019nun 29 Ekim’de Endonezya\u2019ya yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ziyarette, bu \u00fclkeye casus sava\u015f u\u00e7aklar\u0131 konu\u015fland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n

Endonezya siyasi eliti, bu teklifi teredd\u00fcts\u00fcz reddederken, ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgede hangi a\u00e7\u0131lardan var olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine dair i\u015fareti de vermekten geri kalmad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ba\u015fkan Joko Widodo, b\u00f6lgede istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rtacak b\u00f6ylesi bir teklifin yerine, ABD\u2019den \u00fclkesinin en \u00f6nemli sorunu olan kovid-19\u2019la m\u00fccadelede t\u0131bbi destek ve \u00f6zellikle de geli\u015ftirilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan a\u015f\u0131 konusunda yard\u0131m talebinde bulundu.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019deki se\u00e7imlerinin, k\u00fcresel ekonominin can damar\u0131 \u00f6zelli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yan Asya-Pasifik b\u00f6lgesinde merakla beklendi\u011fine ku\u015fku yok. Hammadde zengini, serbest ticarete olduk\u00e7a yatk\u0131n, im\u00e2lat sanayi ve y\u00fcksek end\u00fcstri \u00fcr\u00fcnleri \u00fcreticisi \u00fclkeleri i\u00e7inde bar\u0131nd\u0131ran Asya-Pasifik b\u00f6lgesi ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezi kadar, siyasi karar mekanizmalar\u0131yla da \u00f6nemli bir potansiyele sahip oldu\u011funa ku\u015fku bulunmuyor.<\/p>\n

Bu noktada, ABD\u2019deki se\u00e7imlerin, bu imk\u00e2nlar\u0131yla ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan Asya-Pasifik\u2019le i\u015fbirli\u011fine yol a\u00e7acak \u00a0bir sonucu do\u011furmas\u0131, b\u00f6lge i\u00e7in yeni bir d\u00f6nem anlam\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mehmet \u00d6zay\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 04.11.2020 ABD\u2019de ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n sadece, bu […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3556,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3555","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-asya-pasifik","category-gunluk-yazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3555","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3555"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3555\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3567,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3555\/revisions\/3567"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3556"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3555"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3555"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3555"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}