{"id":2839,"date":"2019-04-17T18:47:55","date_gmt":"2019-04-17T18:47:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/?p=2839"},"modified":"2019-04-26T10:03:36","modified_gmt":"2019-04-26T10:03:36","slug":"endonezya-secimlerinde-kazanan-jokowi-jokowi-the-winner-in-indonesian-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/endonezya-secimlerinde-kazanan-jokowi-jokowi-the-winner-in-indonesian-elections\/","title":{"rendered":"Endonezya se\u00e7imlerinde kazanan Jokowi \/ Jokowi the winner in Indonesian elections"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mehmet \u00d6zay\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 17.04.2019<\/strong><\/p>\n

Endonezya\u2019da ba\u015fkanl\u0131k ve parlamento se\u00e7imi 17 Nisan \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131ld\u0131. Se\u00e7imlerin h\u0131zl\u0131 say\u0131m y\u00f6ntemine g\u00f6re, \u015fu an ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Joko Widodo (Jokowi) ve yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Amin Ma\u2019ruf hoca\u2019n\u0131n kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Buna g\u00f6re, Jokowi-Ma\u2019ruf ikilisi yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 55, Prabowo-Sandiago ikilisi ise y\u00fczde 44 oy alm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Geni\u015f bir co\u011frafyaya yay\u0131lan adalar \u00fclkesi Endonezya\u2019da se\u00e7imin genel itibar\u0131yla sorunsuz ge\u00e7mesi halk\u0131n demokratik y\u00f6nteme sayg\u0131s\u0131 ve bu konuda sergiledikleri olgunlu\u011fun i\u015fareti olarak de\u011ferlendirilmeli.<\/p>\n

H\u0131zl\u0131 say\u0131m y\u00f6nteminin \u00fclkede her se\u00e7im sonras\u0131nda y\u00fcksek do\u011fruluk oran\u0131yla ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi dikkate al\u0131nacak olursa, Jokowi\u2019nin ikinci kez ba\u015fkanl\u0131k koltu\u011funa oturma hakk\u0131 elde etti\u011fini s\u00f6ylemek yanl\u0131\u015f olmayacakt\u0131r. 34 eyaletten gelen ilk sonu\u00e7lar \u00fczerinden ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen h\u0131zl\u0131 say\u0131m tekni\u011finin y\u00fczde birlik hata pay\u0131 i\u00e7ermesi \u00fclke demokrasisi i\u00e7in ayr\u0131 bir kazan\u0131m anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n

Prabowo\u2019dan erken a\u00e7\u0131klama<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte, Jokowi\u2019nin rakibi Prabowo Subianto ise, \u00fclkenin \u00e7e\u015fitli b\u00f6lgelerinde \u00f6nde oldu\u011fu sand\u0131klardan gelen sonu\u00e7lardan hareketle ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 il\u00e2n etmesini stratejik bir yanl\u0131\u015f\u0131n tekrar\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirmek gerekir. Tekrar\u0131 diyoruz, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Prabowo 2014 se\u00e7imlerinde de benzer bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 sergilemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131, \u00e7e\u015fitli kurumlarca ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen say\u0131mlardan \u00f6nce yapmas\u0131n\u0131n tesad\u00fcfen yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir hata olmak yerine, kas\u0131tl\u0131 yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 izlenimi uyand\u0131rmas\u0131yla dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Se\u00e7imlerden k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce yap\u0131lan kamuoyu yoklamalar\u0131nda istisnas\u0131z Jokowi ve yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir y\u00fczde ile ilk s\u0131rada yer almas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, se\u00e7ime saatler kala Prabowo y\u00fczde 60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde oyla kazanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ileri s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Prabowo\u2019nun bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, kendisini destekleyen milyonlarca se\u00e7menin umudunu son ana kadar y\u00fcksek tutmaya matuf bir strateji olarak kabul edilebilir. Ancak \u00fclkenin \u00f6zellikle son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131na g\u00f6z att\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda bu durumun olduk\u00e7a naif bir yakla\u015f\u0131ma tekab\u00fcl etti\u011fi ortada.<\/p>\n

Se\u00e7im neye i\u015faret ediyor?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bu se\u00e7im hi\u00e7 ku\u015fku yok ki, pek \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00f6zellikler ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131yla dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. \u0130lki, 1998 y\u0131l\u0131 May\u0131s ay\u0131nda Suharto rejiminin sona ermesinden sonra 1999 se\u00e7imleri hari\u00e7 olmak \u00fczere 2004\u2019den bu yana yap\u0131lan se\u00e7imlerde ba\u015fkanlar\u0131n ikinci kez se\u00e7ildi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n

2004 y\u0131l\u0131nda ve 2009 y\u0131l\u0131nda Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono ve ard\u0131ndan 2014 ve bug\u00fcn yap\u0131lan se\u00e7imlerde de Jokowi kazanm\u0131\u015f oldu. Bu ba\u011flamda, se\u00e7imlerin iki adayl\u0131 yar\u0131\u015fa konu olmas\u0131 \u00fclke demokrasisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kayda de\u011fer bir geli\u015fme olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte, tek tek partilerin de\u011fil, \u00e7e\u015fitli partilerin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu iki koalisyon blo\u011funun yar\u0131\u015f\u0131yor oldu\u011funu unutmamak gerekiyor. Bu durum, say\u0131s\u0131 onlarla ifade edilen siyasi partilerden ulusal d\u00fczeyde kayda de\u011fer ba\u015far\u0131 sergileyenlerin b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc ba\u015fkan aday\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karamasa da, parlamentoda kazand\u0131klar\u0131 milletvekili say\u0131s\u0131 ve temsil g\u00fc\u00e7leriyle ilgili koalisyon blo\u011funun ba\u015fkan aday\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 halinde, edindikleri yere g\u00f6re bakanl\u0131k \u00fcstleniyorlar.<\/p>\n

\u015e\u00fcphesiz ki, y\u00fczde 20\u2019lik baraj\u0131 a\u015fabilen partiler ba\u015fkan aday\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, bir partinin tek ba\u015f\u0131na ba\u015fkan \u00e7\u0131kartmas\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu sistemde mutlaka koalisyon olgusu g\u00fcndeme geliyor.<\/p>\n

Jokowi-Prabowo\u2019da temsiliyet g\u00fcc\u00fc<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130ki ba\u015fkan aday\u0131n\u0131n yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 yar\u0131\u015fta Jokowi ikinci kez, ayn\u0131 adaya yani Prabowo\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 kazanmas\u0131 olduk\u00e7a anlaml\u0131. Bu anlam, Prabowo\u2019nun eski bir general ve orduda aktif g\u00f6revi s\u0131ras\u0131ndaki \u00e7e\u015fitli b\u00f6lgelerde ortaya koydu\u011fu uygulamalarla insan haklar\u0131 ihl\u00e2lleri ile ad\u0131 an\u0131lan bir aday olmas\u0131 geliyor.<\/p>\n

Jokowi\u2019nin yerel y\u00f6netimden gelen sivil bir isim olmas\u0131, kayda de\u011fer ideolojik bir duru\u015fu ve mensubu oldu\u011fu M\u00fccadeleci Demokrasi Partisi\u2019nde (PDI-P) neredeyse s\u0131radan bir \u00fcyeden fazla bir yetkeye sahip olmamas\u0131 tam da onun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yan\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan, Prabowo\u2019nun otuz iki y\u0131l boyunca \u00fclkeyi y\u00f6netmi\u015f g\u00fcler y\u00fczl\u00fc diktat\u00f6r unvan\u0131yla an\u0131lan Suharto\u2019nun -bir zamanlar- damad\u0131 olmas\u0131 gibi ailevi ba\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesinde bir ordu mensubu olarak Suharta rejiminin devam ettiricisi olmas\u0131yla b\u00fcrokrasiden \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6re kadar s\u00f6z konusu bu rejim yanl\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n umudu olmas\u0131yla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

2014 ve 2019 se\u00e7imlerinin iki ba\u015fkan aday\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu temel kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma bize, g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz Endonezya toplumunda demokrasi, kalk\u0131nma, b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 ba\u011flamda \u00f6nc\u00fc rol oynama ve benzeri konular etraf\u0131nda geli\u015fme g\u00f6steren bir politikadan ziyade, bir anlamda 20. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse b\u00fcy\u00fck\u00e7e bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde belirleyici olmu\u015f bir rejimin devam edip etmemesiyle belirginlik kazan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, Jokowi\u2019nin Solo belediye ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bu yana PDI-P \u00fcyesi olmas\u0131yla, Prabowo ile ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 rekabet aras\u0131nda do\u011frudan bir ili\u015fki oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Ancak unutulmamas\u0131 gereken bir husus var ki o da, 2012 Jakarta valili\u011fi se\u00e7imlerini Jokowi\u2019nin kazanmas\u0131nda PDI-P\u2019nin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, Prabowo\u2019nun ba\u015f\u0131nda oldu\u011fu B\u00fcy\u00fck Endonezya Partisi\u2019nin (Gerindra<\/em>) de katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n olmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Halka yak\u0131n duran bir siyaset\u00e7i \u00f6zelli\u011fiyle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan Jokowi\u2019nin valilik se\u00e7imini kazanmas\u0131nda, kimin etkin oldu\u011fu yolundaki tart\u0131\u015fmada Prabowo\u2019nun hi\u00e7 de geri kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Ayn\u0131 Prabowo\u2019nun, 2014 ve 2019\u2019da Jokowi\u2019ye rakip olmas\u0131 tarihin bir cilvesi olsa gerek.<\/p>\n

Cakarta valili\u011finden itibaren ele alarak ifade etmek gerekirse, Jokowi \u00fclkenin son sekiz y\u0131l\u0131na damgas\u0131n\u0131 vuran bir sivil lider. Asl\u0131nda, Jokowi\u2019nin bu sivil duru\u015fuyla mensubu olmakla kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, ayn\u0131 zamanda i\u00e7inden vali, ard\u0131ndan devlet ba\u015fkan aday\u0131 olarak \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 PDI-P\u2019nin milliyet\u00e7i duru\u015fuyla kayda de\u011fer bir tezat oldu\u011funu ileri s\u00fcrebiliriz.<\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc se\u00e7imlerde acaba kendilerini \u0130slamc\u0131 parti olarak adland\u0131ran veya a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a bu adland\u0131rmay\u0131 dile getirmemekle birlikte, b\u00f6ylesi bir e\u011filimi i\u00e7inde bar\u0131nd\u0131ran ve bu y\u00f6nde talepte bulunan geni\u015f kitleleri temsil etti\u011fi iddias\u0131ndaki partiler nerede duruyor sorusu halen cevaplanmay\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n

Bu hususu daha \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131larda dile getirdi\u011fi i\u00e7in, burada pek fazla \u00fczerinde durmayaca\u011f\u0131m. Ancak \u015fu var ki, g\u00f6zlemcilerin genel kanaatlerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda farkl\u0131 ve\u00e7heleriyle birlikte her ikisi de sek\u00fcler yap\u0131lar\u0131n temsilcisi oldu\u011fu ifade edilen ba\u015fkan adaylar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u0130slamc\u0131 partilerin kendi adaylar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karamam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 olduk\u00e7a manidar. \u00dcst\u00fcne \u00fcstl\u00fck bu partilerin bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn Jokowi koalissyonu, \u00f6teki grubunun Prabowo koalisyonu etraf\u0131nda k\u00fcmelenmi\u015f olarak siyaset yapma iddias\u0131nda olmalar\u0131 sorunu da \u00e7etrefil bir hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte, bir alternatif s\u00f6ylem olarak, \u00f6rne\u011fin Ortado\u011fu benzeri bir \u0130slamc\u0131 parti yap\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nsa dahi, \u00fclke kalk\u0131nmas\u0131, geleneksel yap\u0131 ve k\u00fclt\u00fcr, modernle\u015fme s\u00fcre\u00e7leri ve alternatifler, b\u00f6lgesel ve k\u00fcresel siyaset gibi di\u011fer pek \u00e7ok ba\u011flamda bu partilerin ne gibi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmler sunduklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirmek gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

Yukar\u0131da dile getirdi\u011fimiz \u00fczere h\u0131zl\u0131 say\u0131ma g\u00f6re olu\u015fan sonu\u00e7ta b\u00fcy\u00fck bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmamas\u0131 halinde Jokowi ikinci kez devlet ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 koltu\u011funa oturacak.<\/p>\n

Se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re siyasi partilerin parlamentodaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131mlar\u0131 ve se\u00e7imin A\u00e7e\u2019deki yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 ise \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerdeki yaz\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131zda kaleme alaca\u011f\u0131z. Endonezya\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen se\u00e7imin ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fclkeye hay\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 temenni ediyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mehmet \u00d6zay\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 17.04.2019 Endonezya\u2019da ba\u015fkanl\u0131k ve parlamento se\u00e7imi 17 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2843,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2839","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-endonezya","category-gunluk-yazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2839","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2839"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2839\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2841,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2839\/revisions\/2841"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2843"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2839"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2839"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2839"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}