{"id":2800,"date":"2019-03-09T17:25:56","date_gmt":"2019-03-09T17:25:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/?p=2800"},"modified":"2019-03-09T17:29:31","modified_gmt":"2019-03-09T17:29:31","slug":"taylandda-secimler-oncesinde-thaksine-sok-a-shock-to-thaksin-pre-election-period-in-thailand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/taylandda-secimler-oncesinde-thaksine-sok-a-shock-to-thaksin-pre-election-period-in-thailand\/","title":{"rendered":"Tayland\u2019da se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesinde Thaksin\u2019e \u015fok \/ A shock to Thaksin in pre-Election period in Thailand"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mehmet \u00d6zay\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 09.03.2019<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tayland\u2019da, 1932\u2019de ba\u015flayan ve 2. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan sonra g\u00fcndeme gelen askeri darbeler, \u00fclkede siyaseti belirleyen ba\u015fat bir geli\u015fme olarak tarihe ge\u00e7ti. 21. y\u00fczy\u0131l, t\u0131pk\u0131 benzeri \u00fclkeler gibi yeni bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 anlam\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131na duyulan umut kendini g\u00f6sterir gibi olsa da, isikrarl\u0131 bir s\u00fcrece ge\u00e7ilmesi hen\u00fcz s\u00f6z konusu olmad\u0131.<\/p>\n

2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00f6nemin demokratik y\u00f6ntemlerle belirlenmi\u015f ve ba\u015fbakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 Yingluck Shinawatra\u2019n\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sivil h\u00fck\u00fcmete y\u00f6nelik darbenin ard\u0131ndan general Prayut Chan-o-cha ba\u015fkanl\u0131k koltu\u011funa otururken, bir yandan da \u00fclkenin kaderinin t\u0131pk\u0131 20. y\u00fczy\u0131ldakinin devam\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131na dair g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir intiba b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Darbe nedeni<\/strong><\/p>\n

G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya \u00fclkelerinde kom\u00fcnizmle y\u00f6netilen \u00fclkelerin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ra\u011fmen, bu denli s\u0131k darbenin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ba\u015fka \u00fclke bulunmuyor. Darbeler konusunda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f beyan eden kimi ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar, darbelerin do\u011fas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik bir temeli oldu\u011funu ortaya koysalar da, bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7as\u0131 Tayland\u2019daki uygulamalarla \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc s\u00f6ylenemez.<\/p>\n

G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya \u00dclkeleri Birli\u011fi\u2019nde (ASEAN), Endonezya\u2019dan sonra ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck bak\u0131m\u0131ndan ikinci s\u0131rada bulunan Tayland, b\u00f6lgesel ve k\u00fcresel ili\u015fkiler bak\u0131m\u0131ndan da i\u00e7e kapal\u0131 bir \u00fclke de\u011fil. Aksine, son derece dinamik toplumsal yap\u0131s\u0131, do\u011fudan bat\u0131dan de\u011fi\u015fik \u00fclkelerden d\u0131\u015f yat\u0131r\u0131mlara konu olmas\u0131yla dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n

Bu durum, t\u0131pk\u0131 b\u00f6lgedeki di\u011fer \u00fclkelerde veya genel itibar\u0131yla k\u00fcresel ekonomide g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00a0ya\u015fanan dura\u011fanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n Tayland\u2019da olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. Bu nedenle, ekonomik g\u00f6stergelerin \u00fclkede d\u00fcnden bug\u00fcne darbelerin birincil nedeni oldu\u011funu ileri s\u00fcrmek tutarl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak kabul edilemez.<\/p>\n

Bu nedenle, \u00fclkede birbiri ard\u0131na gelen darbelerin \u00fclkenin k\u00f6kl\u00fc siyasal eliti ve buna eklemlenen yap\u0131lar\u0131n stat\u00fckoyu koruma arzular\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Prayut darbeyi siville\u015ftirdi<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00c7e\u015fitli vesilelerle yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda ba\u015fbakanl\u0131kta veya siyasette g\u00f6z\u00fc olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k se\u00e7ik ifade eden Prayut, son d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131 G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya\u2019da belli bir a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan Tayland gibi bir \u00fclkede ba\u015fbakan olarak ge\u00e7irdi. 24 Mart\u2019ta yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanan se\u00e7im, hen\u00fcz bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik ihtimali g\u00f6stermemesi nedeniyle hayata ge\u00e7irilecek gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Se\u00e7im karar\u0131na ra\u011fmen, se\u00e7im kampanyas\u0131na getirilen k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar \u015feklinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan demokratik se\u00e7im s\u00fcrecini engellemeye matuf giri\u015fimler, \u00fclkede demokratik se\u00e7im s\u00fcrecinin son d\u00f6rt y\u0131lda h\u00fck\u00fcm s\u00fcren eski asker-yeni sivil Prayut y\u00f6netiminin do\u011fal bir sonucu oldu\u011funa kesin g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bak\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Siyasi partilere kar\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131lan bu giri\u015fimler Prayut\u2019u ba\u015fbakan aday\u0131 olarak g\u00f6steren Palang Parcharath Partisi<\/em>\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7maya y\u00f6nelik oldu\u011funa ise ku\u015fku yok. Tabii bu g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcye bak\u0131p, ortada bir Prayut diktat\u00f6rl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden bahsetme yan\u0131lg\u0131s\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmemek gerekir.<\/p>\n

Nihayetinde Prayut tek ba\u015f\u0131na hareket eden bir lider de\u011fil, aksine, 2014 darbesi sonras\u0131nda kurdu\u011fu Ulusal Bar\u0131\u015f ve D\u00fczen Konseyi (NCPO) ad\u0131na hareket eden bir asker\/sivil birey.<\/p>\n

S\u00fcrpriz parti kapatma veya Thaksin\u2019e vurulan darbe<\/strong><\/p>\n

Mevcut iktidar, 2014\u2019den bu yana yeni anayasa \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere siyasi karar mekanizmalar\u0131nda yap\u0131lan de\u011fi\u015fikliklerle, sadece se\u00e7im g\u00fcn\u00fcne kadar de\u011fil, se\u00e7im sonras\u0131nda da varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme e\u011filiminde.<\/p>\n

Bunun son \u00f6rneklerinden biri, Kral Maha Vajiralongkorn\u2019un k\u0131zkarde\u015fi Ubolratana\u2019y\u0131 ba\u015fbakan aday\u0131 olarak g\u00f6steren ve sab\u0131k ba\u015fbakan ve muhalefetin en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc lideri konumundaki Thaksin Shinawatra\u2019n\u0131n \u00a0destekledi\u011fi belirtilen Thai Raksa Chart Partisi<\/em>\u2019nin kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 oldu. Anayasa mahkemesi partinin kraliyet kurumunun anayasa taraf\u0131ndan belirlenmi\u015f kurallar\u0131na ayk\u0131r\u0131 hareket etti\u011fi gerek\u00e7esiyle kapatma karar\u0131 ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

S\u00f6z konusu anayasa, kraliyet ailesine mensup olanlar\u0131n ulusal siyasette aktif olarak yer alamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. Ancak Ubolratana\u2019n\u0131n bir yabanc\u0131yla yapm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu evlilik nedeniyle, zaten kraliyet ailesi haklar\u0131ndan feragat etmi\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, anayasa mahkemesi b\u00f6ylesi bir karar almaktan geri durmad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Thaksin\u2019nin yeni stratejisi<\/strong><\/p>\n

Se\u00e7imlere iki hafta al\u0131nan bu karar, partinin 282 aday\u0131n\u0131n herhangi bir partiden aday g\u00f6sterilmemesi nedeniyle do\u011frudan Thaksin Shinawatra\u2019n\u0131n hedef al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylersek abartm\u0131\u015f olmay\u0131z. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc 2000\u2019lerin ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana \u00fclkede kurulu siyasal yap\u0131ya alternatif sivil bir politikac\u0131 olarak Thaksin ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu durumda, Thai Raksa Chart partisi\u2019nin se\u00e7menleri ne y\u00f6nde kanalize edece\u011fi, yani mevcut partilerden hangisinin desteklenece\u011fi veyahut da do\u011frudan bir protesto olarak se\u00e7menlerine sand\u0131\u011fa gitmeme konusunda y\u00f6nlendirece\u011fi hen\u00fcz kesinlik kazanm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

2000\u2019lerde r\u00fczgar muhalefetten yana<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00dclkede de\u011fi\u015fimin ismi olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan Thaksin 2000\u2019lerden bu yana siyasetin tam oda\u011f\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Thaksin Shinawatra, 2000 y\u0131l\u0131 Ocak ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lan se\u00e7imlerin ard\u0131ndan \u00fclke siyasal ya\u015fam\u0131 i\u00e7in s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kabul edilebilecek bir geli\u015fmeyle 2005 y\u0131l\u0131 \u015eubat ay\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir ba\u015far\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Bu sivil y\u00f6netimin \u00fclkeyi 21. y\u00fczy\u0131la sivil y\u00f6netim ve halk\u0131n \u00f6ncellendi\u011fi bir siyasal yap\u0131yla ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu ve belki de \u00fclkeyi bu anlamda b\u00f6lgesinde giderek \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan bir g\u00fc\u00e7 haline getirebilecekken, 2006 y\u0131l\u0131nda yap\u0131lan askeri darbe bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sivil \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc kapatmaya matuf bir giri\u015fim olarak kabul edilmelidir.<\/p>\n

Halk\u0131n, sivil y\u00f6netim ve stat\u00fckocu yap\u0131lar aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131m\u0131 iyi anlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131n ortaya konulmas\u0131 i\u00e7in bu sefer darbeyle ge\u00e7en d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 Temmuz\u2019un da yap\u0131lan se\u00e7imleri beklemek gerekti.<\/p>\n

Bu sefer, Thaksin Shinawatra olmasa da, onun yerine siyasete at\u0131lan k\u0131zkarde\u015fi Yingluck Shinawatra \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde bir kez daha ulusal parlamentoda \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu sa\u011flayarak \u00fclke y\u00f6netiminde s\u00f6z sahibi oldu. Bu yinelenen \u00fclkede de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karan toplumsal talebin bir neticesi olurken, pratik bir kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olarak Yingluck \u00fclkenin ilk kad\u0131n ba\u015fbakan\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n

2019 Thaksin\u2019e g\u00fclecek (mi?)<\/strong><\/p>\n

2000\u2019lerden itibaren yap\u0131lan se\u00e7imlerde Shinawatra ailesi birinci parti olarak \u00e7\u0131karken, se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmet kurma s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinde di\u011fer g\u00f6rece k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck partilerle ittifaklar g\u00fcndeme geliyordu.<\/p>\n

Se\u00e7imlere iki haftal\u0131k bir s\u00fcrenin kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bug\u00fcnlerde Thai Raksa Chart Partisi<\/em>\u2019nin kapat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re, Thaksin Shinawatra\u2019n\u0131n yeni bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda oldu\u011funa ku\u015fku yok.<\/p>\n

40\u2019\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n partinin se\u00e7imlere kat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, demokrasi yanl\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleriyle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan partilere yap\u0131lacak yat\u0131r\u0131m Thaksin\u2019e g\u00fcvenen geni\u015f bir kitlenin oylar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrpriz bir partiyi ulusal siyasette ortaya \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mehmet \u00d6zay\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 09.03.2019 Tayland\u2019da, 1932\u2019de ba\u015flayan ve 2. D\u00fcnya […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2801,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,32],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2800","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gunluk-yazilar","category-tayland"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2800","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2800"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2800\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2803,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2800\/revisions\/2803"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2801"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2800"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2800"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2800"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}