{"id":2616,"date":"2018-10-26T07:33:07","date_gmt":"2018-10-26T07:33:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/?p=2616"},"modified":"2018-10-26T09:28:17","modified_gmt":"2018-10-26T09:28:17","slug":"shinzo-abenin-cin-ziyareti-neler-vaad-ediyor-what-does-abes-visit-to-china-promise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/shinzo-abenin-cin-ziyareti-neler-vaad-ediyor-what-does-abes-visit-to-china-promise\/","title":{"rendered":"Shinzo Abe\u2019nin \u00c7in ziyareti neler vaad ediyor? \/ What does Abe’s visit to China promise?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mehmet \u00d6zay\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 26.10.2018<\/strong><\/p>\n

Japonya ba\u015fbakan\u0131 \u015einzo Abe\u2019nin iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00c7in ziyareti b\u00f6lgesel ve k\u00fcresel siyaset ve ekonomi ba\u011flam\u0131nda \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir s\u00fcrece i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ziyaret yedi y\u0131l sonra bir Japon ba\u015fbakan\u0131n\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019e ilk ziyareti olmas\u0131yla dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n

Abe\u2019nin \u00c7in\u2019i ziyaretinin, Do\u011fu Asya\u2019n\u0131n bu iki \u00f6nemli \u00fclkesi aras\u0131ndaki gerilimli ili\u015fkileri yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik bir ba\u011flam\u0131 oldu\u011funa ku\u015fku yok. Japonya taraf\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu resmi ziyareti temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131r ve iki \u00fclke ili\u015fkileri ba\u011flam\u0131nda de\u011ferlendirirken, \u00c7in bas\u0131n\u0131nda konu daha \u00e7ok iki Do\u011fu Asya \u00fclkesinin ABD kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yak\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131 \u015feklinde g\u00fcndeme getiriliyor.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel etkisi olan bir ziyaret<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130ki \u00fclke aras\u0131nda gerek tarihsel gerekse son d\u00f6nemdeki geli\u015fmeler ba\u011flam\u0131nda politik gerilim ya\u015fansa da Abe\u2019nin ziyareti yeni bir anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131n ve i\u015fbirliklerinin geli\u015ftirilmesi imk\u00e2n\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7inde bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yor. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, \u00f6ncelikle Do\u011fu Asya\u2019da ve giderek geni\u015fleyen bir \u00e7er\u00e7evede G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya, Hint Okyanusu ve k\u00fcresel boyuta ula\u015fan sorun ve geli\u015fmelerin iki \u00fclkeyi birbirine yakla\u015ft\u0131ran olgular i\u00e7erdi\u011fi de bir ger\u00e7ek. Bu ba\u011flamda, Abe\u2019nin Cinping ile bulu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 salt bu iki \u00fclke ili\u015fkileri ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclemez.<\/p>\n

Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, ziyaretin zamanlamas\u0131na k\u0131saca de\u011finmek gerekir. \u00d6zellikle Kore Yar\u0131madas\u0131\u2019nda bu y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131na kadar varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ciddi bir \u015fekilde hissettiren n\u00fckleer tehdit ve bunun akabinde olu\u015fabilecek s\u0131cak bir geli\u015fmede, Japonya birincil hedefler aras\u0131nda bulunuyordu. Gerek \u00c7in-Kuzey Kore yak\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131, gerekse 20. y\u00fczy\u0131l ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeler, Japonya\u2019y\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019le ili\u015fkilerini mesafeli tutmas\u0131na neden oluyordu. Trump-Kim g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesinin ard\u0131ndan bu tehdit yerini b\u00f6lgede bar\u0131\u015f havas\u0131na b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131n hi\u00e7 ku\u015fku yok ki, Japonya\u2019y\u0131 psikolojik olarak rahatlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Ayr\u0131ca, bu geli\u015fme Japonya\u2019n\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019le ili\u015fkilerinin yeni bir d\u00f6neme girmesi anlam\u0131 da ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131<\/a> – alternatif politikalar<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bir ba\u015fka \u00f6nemli geli\u015fme ise, ABD\u2019de Trump y\u00f6netiminin \u00c7in\u2019e y\u00f6nelik ticari yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131yla olu\u015fan so\u011fuk sava\u015f atmosferi\u2026 Yukar\u0131da dile getirdi\u011fim \u00fczere Kore Yar\u0131madas\u0131 \u00f6zelinde Do\u011fu Asya\u2019ya bar\u0131\u015f hakim olma s\u00fcrecindeyken, ABD\u2019nin yine ayn\u0131 b\u00f6lgeyle tabii ki farkl\u0131 bir ba\u011flamda \u00c7in\u2019le ticareti hedef alarak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmac\u0131 bir ortama zemin haz\u0131rlamas\u0131 tastamam bir \u00e7eli\u015fki.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019nin ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00f6lgeselden k\u00fcresele yaymas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fat unsuru olan \u00c7in\u2019e y\u00f6nelik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar sadece bu iki \u00fclke ile de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalm\u0131yor. Bu ba\u011flamda, Japonya her ne kadar ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgedeki en \u00f6nemli m\u00fcttefiki olsa da, ticari ili\u015fkiler noktas\u0131nda Japonya ABD y\u00f6netiminin i\u00e7e kapanmac\u0131 ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131 ve ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 onaylar bir politika sergilemiyor.<\/p>\n

Japonya\u2019n\u0131n kalk\u0131nma s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinde liberal kapitalizmin olmazsa olmazlar\u0131ndan serbest ticareti onaylayan yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n bu son politikas\u0131n\u0131 gizli\/a\u00e7\u0131k ele\u015ftirmesine neden oluyor. Bu ticaret sava\u015f\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in ABD\u2019ye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olmama ve yeni a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131mlar ortaya koyaca\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, hi\u00e7 ku\u015fku yok ki, bu anlamda kendi b\u00f6lgesinde ilk y\u00f6nelebilece\u011fi \u00fclkelerden biri Japonya.<\/p>\n

Japonya\u2019n\u0131n kapal\u0131 ekonomiler, i\u00e7e kapanmac\u0131 politikalar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki tutumunu, Trump\u2019\u0131n daha ba\u015fkanl\u0131k koltu\u011funa oturur oturmaz reddine imza att\u0131\u011f\u0131 Trans Pasifik \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TPPA) ABD\u2019li veya ABD\u2019siz s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi konusundaki \u00f6nc\u00fc rol\u00fc olmu\u015ftu. Benzer bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, \u015fimdi ABD\u2019nin s\u0131rt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7evirdi\u011fi \u00c7in\u2019le ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirme ve hatta iki g\u00fcc\u00fcn birle\u015fimi ile b\u00f6lgede yeni bir sinerji olu\u015fturma konusunda ad\u0131mlar atmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcprizle kar\u015f\u0131lamamak gerekir.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in sorumluluk al\u0131r m\u0131?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Japonya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00f6ylesi bir d\u00f6nemde \u00c7in\u2019le ili\u015fkileri yeniden d\u00fczenleme konusundaki inisiyatifinin \u00f6te yan\u0131nda, \u00c7in\u2019i reaktive etme \u00e7abas\u0131 olarak da g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Bununla ne demek istiyoruz? \u00c7in k\u00fcresel ekonominin ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fcc\u00fc olmakla birlikte, \u00f6zellikle siyasal ili\u015fkiler, uluslararas\u0131 anla\u015fmalar ve kararlar gibi hususlarda kendi ba\u015f\u0131na buyruk bir seyir takip eden politikalar\u0131na tan\u0131k olunuyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin ASEAN ile ili\u015fkiler G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi sorunu vb. ba\u011flamlarda ekonomik g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc siyasal hegemonyaya tahvil etme \u00e7abas\u0131 di\u011fer \u00fclkeler kadar, Japonya y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in de rahats\u0131zl\u0131k kayna\u011f\u0131. \u00d6yle ki, Trump y\u00f6netiminin ticari ambargo politikalar\u0131n\u0131n bir yerinde de b\u00f6ylesi bir ger\u00e7eklik pay sahibi oldu\u011funu da s\u00f6yleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Bu ba\u011flamda, Abe bu ziyaretiyle, \u00f6zellikle ya\u015fanmakta olan ticaret sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019i i\u00e7ine s\u00fcr\u00fckledi\u011fi ekonomik ve siyasal durumda bir a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131ma kap\u0131 aralamay\u0131 umuyor olabilir. Bu noktada, bu ziyaret \u00c7in\u2019in Asya-Pasifik gibi bir b\u00f6lgede daha \u00e7ok sorumluluk almaya ve siyasi ve ekonomik ili\u015fkilerde daha yap\u0131c\u0131 ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir ba\u011flamlar\u0131 ortaya koymaya ikna \u00e7abas\u0131 olarak da g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n

Bu husus, \u00c7in y\u00f6netiminin \u00f6zellikle Do\u011fu Asya\u2019da Diayous (Senkaku) Adalar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki hak iddias\u0131 ve daha \u00e7ok da G\u00fcney \u00c7in denizi \u00f6zelinde ortaya koydu\u011fu hegemonyac\u0131 tavr\u0131n\u0131n ve bunun b\u00f6lge \u00fclkeleri \u00fczerinde olu\u015fturdu\u011fu tedirginlik ve belirsizlik olgular\u0131n\u0131n ortadan kalkmas\u0131na vesile olacakt\u0131r. Kald\u0131 ki, o d\u00f6nem s\u00fcrekli dile getirdi\u011fimiz \u00fczere, Asya-Pasifik b\u00f6lgesi daha \u00e7ok Barack Obama y\u00f6netimlerince ortaya konulan Asya-Pasifik politikalar\u0131 ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgesel etkinlik ve n\u00fcfuzunu art\u0131rmay\u0131 hedeflerden kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda birincil hedef olarak \u00c7in\u2019in bulundu\u011fu unutulmamal\u0131.<\/p>\n

ABD mi \u00c7in mi?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bu geli\u015fmeye \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc taraflar, \u00f6rne\u011fin ASEAN nas\u0131l bakaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da unutmamak gerekir. \u015ei Cinping, ABD\u2019nin ticaret sava\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00f6nemli hamleler de bulunsa da, k\u00fcresel kapitalizmin hamisi ve bu ekonomik sistemi \u015fekillendiren kurumlar \u00fczerindeki hegemonyas\u0131 ABD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ne denli s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir ticaret ili\u015fkisi geli\u015ftirebilece\u011fini sorgulat\u0131yor. Ancak, \u00c7in y\u00f6netimi, yukar\u0131da dile getirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ba\u011flamda, Abe\u2019nin \u00f6nerece\u011fi \u00e7er\u00e7eveye uygun ve ABD i\u00e7in s\u00fcrpriz addedilebilecek farkl\u0131 bir hamle geli\u015ftirebilirse ASEAN\u2019dan ba\u015flayarak Asya-Pasifik b\u00f6lgesinde yeni bir ekonomi ve siyasal yap\u0131la\u015fmalara kap\u0131 aralayabilir.<\/p>\n

Burada, sahip oldu\u011fu k\u00fcresel ekonomideki ikinci \u00f6nemli g\u00fc\u00e7 olmakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00c7in y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in ne anlama geldi\u011fi gibi daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir olgunun varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Tarihsel ba\u011flam\u0131 dikkate al\u0131narak dile getirilmek istendi\u011finde, geleneksel olarak yay\u0131lmac\u0131 ve \u00f6zellikle de istilac\u0131 politikalarla tan\u0131nmayan \u00c7in, k\u00fcresel kapitalizmin kurallar\u0131n\u0131 sahip oldu\u011fu Asyac\u0131l\u0131k de\u011ferlerini kendi b\u00f6lgesindeki di\u011fer kalk\u0131nm\u0131\u015f ve kalk\u0131nmakta olan \u00fclkelerle i\u015fbirli\u011fini bar\u0131\u015f temelli geli\u015ftirmeye y\u00f6nelik \u00e7abalar\u0131yla ABD\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc alabilir.<\/p>\n

Bu noktada, paragraf\u0131n giri\u015finde dile getirdi\u011fim ASEAN\u2019\u0131n bu geli\u015fmeye nas\u0131l bakaca\u011f\u0131 sorusunu hi\u00e7 ku\u015fku yok ki \u00f6nemli. \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00f6lge ile hem tarihsel ve geleneksel kom\u015fulu\u011fu, hem de \u00c7in k\u00f6kenli az\u0131nl\u0131klar\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla k\u00fclt\u00fcrel etkile\u015fimlerin bug\u00fcne kadar canl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi ABD-\u00c7in tercihinde ibreyi ikincisi y\u00f6n\u00fcne \u00e7evirecektir. Ancak bunun i\u00e7in \u00c7in\u2019in kayda de\u011fer ad\u0131mlar atmas\u0131 ve b\u00f6lge y\u00f6netimleri ve halklar\u0131 i\u00e7in ikna edici, inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 politikalar\u0131 hayata ge\u00e7irmesi gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019de Trump y\u00f6netiminin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ba\u015fka b\u00f6lgelerinde oldu\u011fu gibi ASEAN b\u00f6lgesinde de ho\u015fnutlukla izlendi\u011fi s\u00f6ylenemez. Yukar\u0131da Japonya i\u00e7in s\u00f6yledi\u011fimiz TPPA\u2019n\u0131n devam\u0131 noktas\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe, ASEAN i\u00e7erisindeki bu yeni ve -\u015fimdilik at\u0131l kalm\u0131\u015f- ekonomi kulub\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn di\u011fer \u00fcyelerinin de destek verdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Burada hakl\u0131 olarak, \u201c\u00c7in zaten ASEAN\u2019la \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli ticari ve yat\u0131r\u0131m ili\u015fkilerine sahip ba\u015fka bir politikaya ne gerek var ki?\u201d diye bir soru sorulabilir. ASEAN\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6zellikle son d\u00f6nemde do\u011fu-bat\u0131, \u00c7in-ABD aras\u0131nda denge politikas\u0131 izledi\u011fine tan\u0131k olunuyor. Her iki g\u00fc\u00e7ten de vazge\u00e7mesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6z\u00fckm\u00fcyor, en az\u0131ndan \u015fimdilik. \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00f6lge \u00fclkeleriyle olan ticaret hacmine ra\u011fmen, ho\u015fnutsuzluklar\u0131n s\u00fcrekli g\u00fcndemde oldu\u011fu da bir ger\u00e7ek. Bu gerilim ortam\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6rne\u011fin Malezya, Endonezya i\u00e7 siyasetine kadar tesir edecek boyutlar ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakinen biliyoruz.<\/p>\n

Bu ba\u011flamda, \u00c7in, uluslararas\u0131 anla\u015fmalar b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc ile b\u00f6lge \u00fclkeleriyle politikalar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irme imk\u00e2n\u0131n\u0131 Abe\u2019nin ziyareti ve sonras\u0131nda olu\u015facak s\u00fcre\u00e7te bulabilir. Ticaret sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n, \u00c7in\u2019li baz\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 zorunlu olarak ASEAN co\u011frafyas\u0131na itmesi hem b\u00f6lge \u00fclkeleri hem \u00c7in i\u00e7in yak\u0131n ve orta vade i\u00e7in daha neler yap\u0131labilece\u011finin a\u00e7\u0131k bir g\u00f6stergesi.<\/p>\n

Abe\u2019nin ziyaretinin Do\u011fu Asya\u2019dan ba\u015flayarak giderek geni\u015fleyen co\u011frafi b\u00f6lgeler ve birlikleri de ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00f6zelli\u011fi i\u00e7eriyor. Bu anlamda, iki liderin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ve sonras\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler izlenmeye de\u011fer olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mehmet \u00d6zay\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 26.10.2018 Japonya ba\u015fbakan\u0131 \u015einzo Abe\u2019nin iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2617,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,72],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2616","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gunluk-yazilar","category-japonya"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2616","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2616"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2616\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2619,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2616\/revisions\/2619"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2617"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2616"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2616"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/tr_tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2616"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}