{"id":6401,"date":"2026-04-07T15:35:12","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T15:35:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/?p=6401"},"modified":"2026-04-07T15:35:13","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T15:35:13","slug":"askeri-ultimatom-ve-degisim-arasinda-iran-iran-between-military-ultimatum-and-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/indonesia\/askeri-ultimatom-ve-degisim-arasinda-iran-iran-between-military-ultimatum-and-change\/","title":{"rendered":"Askeri \u00fcltimatom ve de\u011fi\u015fim aras\u0131nda \u0130ran \/ Iran: Between military ultimatum and change"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Mehmet \u00d6zay &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 07.04.2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Arab K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ne yay\u0131lan, \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik a\u00e7\u0131lan sava\u015f bir s\u00fcredir bitti, bitiyor s\u00f6ylemine konu olurken ABD ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019dan Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc gelen ve d\u00fcn yenilenen a\u00e7\u0131klamayla, d\u00fcnyay\u0131 hop oturtup hop kald\u0131rt\u0131yor&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 yeni bir \u00fcltimatom salvosuyla hedef alarak, \u201c&#8230; \u00c7ar\u015famba sabah\u0131 saat 3\u2019e kadar ya, ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 imzalars\u0131n\u0131z ya da, sizi yok ederiz\u201d diyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Buna paralel olarak d\u00fcn Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri devlet ba\u015fkan\u0131 siyasi i\u015fler dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 Anwar Gargash, Avrupa bas\u0131n\u0131na yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada \u201colas\u0131 bir ate\u015fkes yerine \u00e7ok daha kapsaml\u0131 bir \u201cYeni K\u00f6rfez\u201d yap\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 talebinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oysa g\u00fcnler \u00f6ncesinde mevcut sava\u015f ortam\u0131n\u0131 sonland\u0131rmaya matuf feli\u015fmeler ya\u015fan\u0131yordu&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>S\u00f6z konusu bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar Washington\u2019dan gelirken, ba\u015fkan Donald Trump \u00f6nce Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc ve ard\u0131ndan, d\u00fcn yineledi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131klamalarla, hi\u00e7 ku\u015fku yok ki, s\u00fcrecin yeniden Trumpvari politikalar\u0131n sarmal\u0131na girdi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bl\u00f6f!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n, NATO \u00fcyesi Avrupa \u00fclkelerini \u201cgelin petrol\u00fcn\u00fcz\u00fc kendiniz al\u0131n, sizin bek\u00e7iniz\u201d de\u011filim anlam\u0131na gelen s\u00f6ylemi, sanki sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmekte oldu\u011fu izlenimi do\u011furuyordu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu \u2018a\u00e7\u0131k davet\u2019e Avrupa\u2019dan olumlu cevap gelmedi&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bununla birlikte, Trump\u2019\u0131n ABD\u2019ye ait t\u00fcm sava\u015f donan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 K\u00f6rfez\u2019den \u00e7ekti\u011fine de tan\u0131k olmad\u0131k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Demek ki, ortada -bir ger\u00e7eklik kadar, a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7as\u0131 bir t\u00fcr bl\u00f6f\u00fcn de varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na delalet edecek geli\u015fmeler oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ba\u015fkan Trump, Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc ve d\u00fcn yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalarla, \u0130ran\u2019a verdi\u011fi \u00fcltimatom herhalde Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu petrol ve \u00f6zellikle de gaz\u2019\u0131n temini i\u00e7in olmasa gerek&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ya da, Avrupa\u2019daki NATO \u00fcyesi \u00fclkelere, \u201cBen olmadan bir \u015fey yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z yok&#8230; Hadi yine sizi ben kurtaray\u0131m\u201d m\u0131 diyor acaba?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Sava\u015f\u0131n taraflar\u0131 kim?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu son geli\u015fme, geli\u015fmeleri \u2018uzak\u2019tan takip etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bizleri, \u201cAcaba, sava\u015f\u0131n taraflar\u0131 kim?\u201d sorusunu bir kez daha sormaya sevk ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131yla, -muhtemelen tesad\u00fcfi bir \u015fekilde- e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak Avrupa bas\u0131n\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen bir haberin, yukar\u0131da dile getirdi\u011fim soruya bir t\u00fcr kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek istiyorum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130lgili haber, Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri (UAE) devlet ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n siyasi i\u015fler dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 Anwar Gargash\u2019\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klama&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gargash, ABD ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019la bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri s\u00fcrecine at\u0131f yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ve bu anlamda, a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7as\u0131, ortada s\u00fcr\u00fcp giden bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinden haberdarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bu geli\u015fmelerin, BAE i\u00e7in tatmink\u00e2r olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir intiba uyand\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ba\u015fkan dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131n\u0131n, ABD\u2019ye dolayl\u0131 olarak, \u201cB\u00f6yle bir bar\u0131\u015f yapacaksan, hi\u00e7 yapma daha iyi\u201d dercesine, bir ele\u015ftirel tutum geli\u015ftirdi\u011fi gibi, a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7as\u0131 ABD\u2019yi \u0130ran siyasal rejimi ve varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda \u00e7ok daha \u2018d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc\u2019 bir s\u00fcreci hayata ge\u00e7irmesi davetinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>BAE ayn\u0131 yerde!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu haberle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131mda, Mart ay\u0131n\u0131n ortas\u0131nda, yine BAE\u2019den ve o zaman D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakan\u0131 Lana Nusseibeh\u2019den sad\u0131r olan a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 hat\u0131rlad\u0131m..<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakan\u0131 Lana Nusseibeh\u2019in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, \u201c\u00fclkesi\u2019nin, \u0130srail\u2019den daha \u00e7ok f\u00fcze ve drona hedef oldu\u011funu\u201d belirtmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BAE devlet ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n siyasi i\u015fler dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131n\u0131n ABD\u2019den ve de Trump\u2019dan talebi \u015fu: Kapsaml\u0131 bir anla\u015fma yap\u0131larak, ba\u015fta kendi \u00fclkesi olmak \u00fczere K\u00f6rfez b\u00f6lgesine y\u00f6nelik olarak \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yeniden siyasal ve askeri bir tehdit ortaya koymamas\u0131n\u0131 temin etmek&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>B\u00f6ylesi kapsaml\u0131 anla\u015fman\u0131n ad\u0131n\u0131 da, \u201cs\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fcvenlik\u201d olarak koyuyor Gargash&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u0130ran ve g\u00fcven meselesi<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda, \u201c\u0130ran mevcut rejimiyle bir g\u00fcven tesis etmiyor\u201d diyor, Gargasah.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yukar\u0131da hat\u0131rlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131m \u00fczere, BAE d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakan\u0131n\u0131n \u201cen \u00e7ok f\u00fczeyi ve dronu biz yedik&#8230;\u201d anlam\u0131na gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n bir \u015fekilde devam\u0131 olarak bug\u00fcn dan\u0131\u015fman Gargash\u2019\u0131n, \u201c&#8230; BAE olarak, bir deniz g\u00fcc\u00fcyle harekete ge\u00e7meye haz\u0131r de\u011filiz\u201d a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bir ba\u015fka ifadeyle s\u00f6ylemek gerekirse, dan\u0131\u015fman Gargash yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamayla, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, BAE olmak \u00fczere K\u00f6rfez Arap \u00fclkelerine y\u00f6nelik misilleme sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131yla bu \u00fclkeleri, ABD ve \u0130srail ile ittifak halinde oldu\u011funu kan\u0131tl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Elbette, bu husus bilinmeyen, g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen, fark edilmeyen bir durum de\u011fil. Ve bunda \u015fa\u015f\u0131lacak bir durumda bulunmuyor&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ancak, dan\u0131\u015fman Gargash\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131, \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nemli&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cBu durumda, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131maya y\u00f6nelik ABD \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki bir olu\u015fuma veya ortaya konulacak uluslararas\u0131 \u00e7abalara kat\u0131lmaya haz\u0131r\u0131z\u201d diyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019la s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinin \u2018ate\u015fkes\u2019le s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmamas\u0131, aksine, b\u00f6lgedeki \u201cyap\u0131sal riskleri hesaba katan bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine\u201d dikkat \u00e7ekiyor&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Acaba bu s\u00f6ylemi nas\u0131l yorumlamak laz\u0131m?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u015eayet s\u00f6ylentiler do\u011fru ise ABD ve \u0130ran aras\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir ate\u015fkes sa\u011flanacaksa, bu durum ba\u015fta BAE olmak \u00fczere t\u00fcm K\u00f6rfez Arap \u00fclkelerince, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n askeri varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yeniden in\u015fa edecek bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 olarak m\u0131 alg\u0131lan\u0131yor?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bunu \u2018do\u011fru\u2019 kabul eder ve dan\u0131\u015fman Gargash\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131na bakacak olursak, b\u00f6ylesi bir geli\u015fmenin t\u00fcm b\u00f6lge i\u00e7in, \u201c\u00e7ok daha tehlikeli bir ortam olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131\u201d tahmininde bulunuluyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gargash, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n t\u00fcmden yok edilmesine taraftar de\u011fil. Ortaya koydu\u011fu s\u00f6ylemle, \u201c\u0130ran, bu rejimle devam edemez\u201de getirmek istiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bir anlamda, \u0130ran halk\u0131 ve mevcut \u0130ran siyasal rejimi aras\u0131nda kesin bir ayr\u0131m g\u00f6zetiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ve b\u00f6ylesi bir sonucun has\u0131l olabilmesi i\u00e7in de, Trump ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki ABD\u2019yi i\u015faret ediyor&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gargash, s\u00f6yleminin devam\u0131nda, \u201cm\u00fczakerelere \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n sald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ba\u015fta BAE olmak \u00fczere b\u00f6lge \u00fclkeleri de kat\u0131lmal\u0131\u201d diyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BAE\u2019ye bi\u00e7ti\u011fi bu \u2018muhtemel\u2019 rol, hi\u00e7 ku\u015fku yok ki, \u0130ran\u2019dan en \u00e7ok f\u00fcze ve dron sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131na maruz kalan \u00fclke olmas\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fine dayan\u0131yor&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BAE\u2019den gelen bu talebin ABD taraf\u0131ndan dikkate al\u0131n\u0131p al\u0131nmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n karar\u0131n\u0131 verecek olan ABD\u2019dir&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu noktada, ABD ve ba\u015fkan Trump K\u00f6rfez Arap \u00fclkelerinden gelen talepleri ne \u015fekilde de\u011ferlendirece\u011fi ise yine ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgesel ve k\u00fcresel \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mehmet \u00d6zay &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 07.04.2026 Arab K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ne yay\u0131lan, \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik a\u00e7\u0131lan sava\u015f bir s\u00fcredir bitti, bitiyor s\u00f6ylemine konu olurken ABD ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019dan Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc gelen ve d\u00fcn yenilenen a\u00e7\u0131klamayla, d\u00fcnyay\u0131 hop oturtup hop kald\u0131rt\u0131yor&#8230; Trump a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 yeni bir \u00fcltimatom salvosuyla hedef alarak, \u201c&#8230; \u00c7ar\u015famba sabah\u0131 saat 3\u2019e kadar ya, ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 imzalars\u0131n\u0131z ya [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":6402,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6401","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gunluk-yazilar","category-ortadogumiddle-east"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/indonesia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6401","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/indonesia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/indonesia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/indonesia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/indonesia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6401"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/indonesia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6401\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/indonesia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6402"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/indonesia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6401"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/indonesia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6401"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/indonesia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6401"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}