{"id":3822,"date":"2021-04-26T21:19:02","date_gmt":"2021-04-26T21:19:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/?p=3822"},"modified":"2021-04-26T21:19:02","modified_gmt":"2021-04-26T21:19:02","slug":"asean-myanmarda-darbe-surecini-degistirebilir-mi-can-asean-change-the-course-of-the-coup-in-myanmar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/indonesia\/asean-myanmarda-darbe-surecini-degistirebilir-mi-can-asean-change-the-course-of-the-coup-in-myanmar\/","title":{"rendered":"ASEAN Myanmar\u2019da darbe s\u00fcrecini de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir mi? \/ Can ASEAN change the course of the coup in Myanmar?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mehmet \u00d6zay\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 26.04.2021<\/strong><\/p>\n

Myanmar\u2019da 1 \u015eubat\u2019ta ya\u015fanan darbenin ard\u0131ndan ilk uluslararas\u0131 inisiyatif ASEAN taraf\u0131ndan ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirildi. Cakarta\u2019daki ASEAN genel sekreterli\u011fi\u2019nde hafta sonu yap\u0131lan toplant\u0131lar, Myanmar\u2019da darbe ile olu\u015fan siyasi ve insani krizi \u00e7\u00f6zmeye y\u00f6nelik bir ad\u0131m olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n

G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler sonras\u0131nda be\u015f maddelik konsens\u00fcs karar\u0131 Endonezya devlet ba\u015fkan\u0131 Joko Widodo (Jokowi) taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bu kararlar \u015f\u00f6yle: mevcut \u015fiddet ortam\u0131na son verilmesi; taraflar aras\u0131nda yap\u0131c\u0131 diyaloglara ba\u015flanmas\u0131; Myanmar\u2019a insani yard\u0131m ula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 (\u00f6zellikle Tayland s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131nda ya\u015fanan g\u00f6\u00e7 hareketlili\u011fi nedeniyle insani yard\u0131m\u0131n aciliyet te\u015fkil ediyor);m\u00fczakeler i\u00e7in \u00f6zel bir el\u00e7inin atanmas\u0131 (bu noktada, ASEAN 2021 d\u00f6nem ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fcten \u00a0Bruyen Sultanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakan\u0131 g\u00f6revlendirilecek) ve \u00f6zel heyetin Myanmar\u2019\u0131 ziyaretinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmesi.<\/p>\n

Hlaing, Prayut\u2019u model al\u0131yor<\/strong><\/p>\n

Myanmar cunta y\u00f6netiminin bu taleplere nas\u0131l kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verece\u011fini ise k\u0131sa vadede g\u00f6rmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olacak. Ancak toplant\u0131lara kat\u0131lan darbeci general Min Augn Hlaing, Cakarta\u2019daki toplant\u0131larda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir ki\u015fi var ki, asl\u0131nda \u00fczerine e\u011finilmesi gereken bu husustur. O da, Tayland ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Prayut Chan-o-cha.<\/p>\n

Min Augn Hlaing\u2019\u0131n kendisine yak\u0131n hissetti\u011fi ismin Tayland darbeci general \/ sivil ba\u015fbakan Prayut Chan-o-cha olmas\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n

Prayut da, 2014 darbesinin ard\u0131ndan bir iki y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde se\u00e7imlerin yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 il\u00e2n etmi\u015fti. Ancak bu vaad ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi\u011fi gibi, darbeci askeri h\u00fck\u00fcmetin olu\u015fturulmas\u0131na olanak tan\u0131yacak bir anayasan\u0131n kabul\u00fcn\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan ve ancak be\u015f y\u0131l ge\u00e7tikten sonra se\u00e7imlere gidilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Bunun ard\u0131ndan, beklendi\u011fi \u00fczere Tayland\u2019da darbe sonras\u0131 darbeci generallerden olu\u015fan sivil g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcml\u00fc bir h\u00fck\u00fcmet kurulmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcn de Myanmar\u2019da Tatmadaw<\/em> lideri general Min Augn Hlaing benzer bir s\u00fcrecin pe\u015finde. Darbenin ard\u0131ndan bir y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde se\u00e7imlerin yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, bug\u00fcn yerini iki y\u0131la b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n

NUG<\/em><\/strong> ve me\u015fruiyet<\/strong><\/p>\n

S\u00f6z konusu toplant\u0131n\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131makla beraber, baz\u0131 sorgulamalar da g\u00fcndeme getiriliyor.<\/p>\n

Bunlar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda, Myanmar\u2019da 1 \u015eubat\u2019taki darbenin hemen ard\u0131ndan, cunta rejiminin kurdu\u011fu Ulusal Y\u00f6netim Konseyi\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131ndaki Min Augn Hlaing\u2019\u0131n bizzat davet edilmesi geliyor.<\/p>\n

Bununla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 bir di\u011fer husus, 16 Nisan\u2019da muhalefet gruplar\u0131n\u0131n ittifak\u0131yla kurulan ve halk\u0131n deste\u011fini ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131lan Ulusal Birlik H\u00fck\u00fcmeti\u2019nden (National Unity Government<\/em>-NUG) kimsenin davet edilmemi\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Her ne kadar, ASEAN i\u00e7erisinden baz\u0131 yap\u0131lar\u0131n kapal\u0131 kap\u0131lar ard\u0131nda bu alternatif sivil h\u00fck\u00fcmet ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler oldu\u011fu belirtilse de, hen\u00fcz bu yap\u0131ya a\u00e7\u0131k bir destek s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

NUG\u2019un sadece 2020 Kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndaki se\u00e7imi kazanan Ulusal Demokrasi Birli\u011fi\u2019ne (National League for Democracy<\/em>-NLD) destek veren halk kesimleri olu\u015fturmuyor. Bu yap\u0131n\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131nda \u00f6zellikle, \u00fclkenin s\u0131n\u0131r boylar\u0131ndaki \u00e7e\u015fitli etnik yap\u0131lar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k deste\u011fi ve kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 gayet b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu yap\u0131 hen\u00fcz yeni bir olu\u015fum olmakla birlikte varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u201cfederal demokratik bir siyasi sistemin olu\u015fturulmas\u0131na\u201d dayand\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n tarihsel nedenleri bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Bu da, 1948 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z\u0131\u011fa giden s\u00fcre\u00e7te yap\u0131lan Panglong Konferans\u0131<\/em>\u2019nda al\u0131nan kararlar\u0131 hat\u0131rlatan bir i\u00e7eri\u011fi b\u00fcnyesinde ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

S\u00f6z konusu konferansa ve ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa ra\u011fmen, ilgili etnik yap\u0131lara siyasi ya\u015famda temsil hakk\u0131 tan\u0131nmam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n getirdi\u011fi siyasi y\u00fck yirminci y\u00fczy\u0131l ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren bug\u00fcnlere kadar devam etti.<\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcn, sadece 1 \u015eubat darbesine kar\u015f\u0131 olu\u015fmu\u015f bir ittifak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc verse de, \u00f6zellikle ilgili etnik yap\u0131lar ki bunlar aras\u0131nda kendi ordusuna sahip Karen, Kachin, Shan, Rhakhine gibi unsurlar olas\u0131 bir darbe sonras\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te nas\u0131l bir siyasi y\u00f6nelim belirleyecekleri de merak konusu.<\/p>\n

Darbe sonras\u0131nda uluslararas\u0131 \u00e7evrelerden gelen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler aras\u0131nda darbeci yap\u0131 sorgulan\u0131rken, at\u0131flar sadece, bir d\u00f6nem demokrasi lideri olarak \u00fcn salan Suu Kyi de\u011fildi. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra ve belki de bundan daha \u00e7ok, Arakan M\u00fcsl\u00fcmanlar\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik \u00f6zellikle, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren g\u00fcndeme gelen etnik soyk\u0131r\u0131m s\u00fcre\u00e7lerindeki ordunun rol\u00fcyd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

2015\u2019den sonraki geli\u015fmelerde sivil h\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u00f6nemli lideri olarak Suu Kyi\u2019nin, Arakan M\u00fcsl\u00fcmanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131 ve z\u00fclme sessiz kalmas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir tepki toplarken, asl\u0131nda Myanmar h\u00fck\u00fcmet bu politikas\u0131yla me\u015fruiyet krizini bizzat kendi elleriyle haz\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcm bu geli\u015fmelere kar\u015f\u0131n, bug\u00fcn olu\u015fturulan ve alternatif h\u00fck\u00fcmet ad\u0131 ile ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan NUG\u2019da maalesef Arakan M\u00fcsl\u00fcmanlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 temsil eden bir unsur bulunmuyor.<\/p>\n

ASEAN\u2019da\u00a0 bitmeyen \u00e7eli\u015fki<\/strong><\/p>\n

Daha \u00f6nce, Myanmar\u2019da ASEAN d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakanlar\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in giri\u015fimde bulunulmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen sonu\u00e7 al\u0131namam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Hafta sonu Cakarta\u2019da biraraya gelen ASEAN devlet ve h\u00fck\u00fcmet ba\u015fkanlar\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131na ev sahibi konumundaki Endonezya devlet ba\u015fkan\u0131 Joko Widodo\u2019nun ba\u015fkanl\u0131k etmesi beklense de, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bu y\u0131l d\u00f6nem ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00fcstlenen Bruney Sultanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yap\u0131lmas\u0131 protokole uygun kabul edilebilir. Ancak, bu giri\u015fimde hi\u00e7 ku\u015fku yok ki, Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n rol\u00fc yads\u0131namaz.<\/p>\n

Toplant\u0131 il\u00e2n\u0131ndan itibaren bug\u00fcne kadar en \u00f6nemli husus bizatihi toplant\u0131n\u0131n kendisi kadar, Myanmar\u2019\u0131n darbeci lideri Min Augn Hlaing\u2019\u0131n i\u015ftirakinin, moral ve siyasi bir a\u00e7maz kabul edilmesidir. Bu toplant\u0131 Myanmar\u2019daki siyasi ve insani krize \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bulman\u0131n bir arac\u0131 kabul edilirken, gizli\/a\u00e7\u0131k darbeci y\u00f6netimin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir i\u015flev g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc de ortada.<\/p>\n

Burada iki hususa dikkat \u00e7ekmekte fayda var. \u0130lki, bu t\u00fcr \u201cme\u015frula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131\u201d toplant\u0131lara ASEAN ilk defa ev sahipli\u011fi yapm\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin 22 May\u0131s 2014 askeri darbesinden sonra Tayland ve 24 \u015eubat 2020 sivil darbesinden sonra Malezya\u2019n\u0131n h\u00fck\u00fcmet liderlerinin i\u00e7inde bulunduklar\u0131 me\u015fruiyet krizlerine ra\u011fmen, ASEAN ve\/ya ilintili g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere kat\u0131lmalar\u0131 bunun bir g\u00f6stergesidir.<\/p>\n

Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ASEAN genel sekreterli\u011fi, ilgili \u00fclke devlet ve h\u00fck\u00fcmet ba\u015fkanlar\u0131 ile d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakanl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n bu toplant\u0131 giri\u015fimini yap\u0131p yapmama konusunda pek fazla sorgulay\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00e7aba i\u00e7ine girdikleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclemez.<\/p>\n

Cakarta\u2019daki toplant\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6z\u00fcne bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, siyasi krizden \u00f6te insani krize yap\u0131lan vurgunun daha egemen oldu\u011fu anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu durum, a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7as\u0131, ASEAN y\u00f6netiminin yukar\u0131da dikkat \u00e7ekilen me\u015fruiyet krizi konusundan ziyade, daha \u00e7ok insani krize \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bulmaya y\u00f6nelik pratik ve pragmatik bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm i\u00e7erisinde oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Tatmadaw<\/em><\/strong>\u2019\u0131n ekonomi-politi\u011fi<\/strong><\/p>\n

Myanmar\u2019da cunta y\u00f6netiminin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesinde, sadece askeri varl\u0131k ve g\u00fc\u00e7le s\u0131n\u0131rlamak yanl\u0131\u015f olur. Aksine, Tatmadaw<\/em> yani, Myanmar ordusunun \u00fclke ekonomi-politi\u011finde sahip oldu\u011fu \u00f6neme vurgu yap\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bu durum, 1 \u015eubat darbesindan sonra ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f bir durum de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

\u00dclkenin kurulu\u015f y\u0131llar\u0131ndan itibaren var olan ve giderek kendini k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir \u015fekilde yap\u0131land\u0131ran bir ger\u00e7eklik. \u00d6yle ki, 20. y\u00fczy\u0131l ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 boyunca ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen darbe ve darbe sonras\u0131 siville\u015ftirilmi\u015f ordu y\u00f6netimlerinin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcreklilik arz etmesi ordunun bu ekonomi-politik kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 ve bunlar\u0131 belirli sivil \u00e7evrelerle payla\u015fmas\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerin darbenin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana, Myanmar darbeci y\u00f6netimine kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurabildikleri tek \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm g\u00f6z\u00fcken ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara sebep de, temelde ordunun sahip i\u015fte bu ekonomi-politik g\u00fc\u00e7t\u00fcr.<\/p>\n

Ancak ordu ve ordu ile ilintili \u00e7evrelerin ekonomik faaliyetlerini sadece Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerle yapmad\u0131klar\u0131 da ortadad\u0131r. Bu noktada, sahnenin arka pl\u00e2n\u0131nda \u00f6zellikle, \u00c7in ile kurulan ili\u015fkileri g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekir.<\/p>\n

\u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm m\u00fcmk\u00fcn m\u00fc?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Myanmar\u2019da 2020 Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lan se\u00e7imi NLD kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ordu, se\u00e7imlere hile kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirmi\u015fti. 1 \u015eubat\u2019ta yeni meclisin a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan sadece saatler \u00f6nce ordu yeni y\u00f6netim g\u00f6reve ba\u015flamadan darbe ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

ASEAN toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda Myanmar\u2019da darbeci Ulusal Y\u00f6netim Konseyi\u2019nin gerekli ad\u0131mlar\u0131 atmamas\u0131 halinde nas\u0131l bir geli\u015fme olaca\u011f\u0131 merak konusu. Baz\u0131 \u00e7evrelerin, Bat\u0131l\u0131 yani ABD\u2019nin do\u011frudan bir askeri m\u00fcdahalesini s\u00f6ylemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc \u015fartlarda b\u00f6ylesi bir te\u015febb\u00fcs\u00fcn ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme ihtimalinin rasyonel bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemekte yarar var.<\/p>\n

Bu durumda, hem ASEAN\u2019\u0131 hem darbecileri memnun edecek yeg\u00e2ne \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm en k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede \u201cdemokratik se\u00e7imlerin\u201d yap\u0131larak sivil idareye ge\u00e7ilmesi olacakt\u0131r. T\u0131pk\u0131 Tayland\u2019da oldu\u011fu gibi!<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mehmet \u00d6zay\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 26.04.2021 Myanmar\u2019da 1 \u015eubat\u2019ta ya\u015fanan darbenin ard\u0131ndan […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3823,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3822","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-asean","category-gunluk-yazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/indonesia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3822","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/indonesia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/indonesia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/indonesia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/indonesia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3822"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/indonesia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3822\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/indonesia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3823"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/indonesia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3822"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/indonesia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3822"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/indonesia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3822"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}