G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi konusu b\u00f6lgedeki kayal\u0131klar, adac\u0131klar ve suni adalar \u00fczerinden s\u00fcren tart\u0131\u015fma \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde g\u00fcndemdeki yerini korumaya devam ediyor. B\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinin egemenlik haklar\u0131 ba\u011flam\u0131nda ele al\u0131nan G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi meselesi, k\u00fcresel ili\u015fkiler \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde tek kutuplu\/\u00e7ift kutuplu d\u00fcnya ba\u011flam\u0131na oturtuluyor. Bununla birlikte, baz\u0131 ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 s\u00f6k\u00fcn etmi\u015f olsa da, k\u00f6kl\u00fc ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bir jeopolitik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 da s\u00f6ylenemez. \u00c7in h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin, resmi a\u011f\u0131zlardan s\u00fcrekli olarak \u201cb\u00f6lgedeki me\u015fru egemenlik hak ve \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131\u201d koruma s\u00f6ylemi tek tarafl\u0131 olmakl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla subjektif bir \u00f6zellik ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, \u00c7in y\u00f6netimi bal\u0131k\u00e7\u0131 tekneleri gibi unsurlar\u0131 da devreye sokarak b\u00f6lgede avlanma hakk\u0131n\u0131 tarihi referanslarla a\u00e7\u0131klarken, bu teknelerin yan\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki sahil g\u00fcvenlik gemileriyle de askeri varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. \u00c7in\u2019in bu sular\u0131n egemenli\u011fi konusunda tarihe referans\u0131, D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Wang Yi\u2019nin \u201ctarih kimin misafir kimin ger\u00e7ek ev sahibi oldu\u011funu kan\u0131tlayacakt\u0131r\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, bir \u015fekilde \u2018s\u00f6m\u00fcrgeci g\u00fc\u00e7ler\u2019 s\u00f6ylemine kadar uzan\u0131yor. Bununla birlikte, di\u011fer iddia sahibi \u00fclkelerin de, tarihe yapabilecekleri bir referans\u0131n olabilece\u011fini \u00c7in hat\u0131rda tutmal\u0131. \u00d6te yandan, bu hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinden baz\u0131lar\u0131yla do\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerle bir t\u00fcr ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k tesis etti\u011fi haberi g\u00fcndeme oturdu. Bu son duruma dair g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri payla\u015fmadan \u00f6nce, G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019nde taraflar\u0131n ne t\u00fcr icraatlar sergilediklerine bakal\u0131m.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019\u0131n sorun kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki bu duru\u015funa ra\u011fmen, \u00c7in ve egemenlik iddias\u0131ndaki di\u011fer \u00fclkeler aras\u0131ndaki tart\u0131\u015fma, s\u00f6ylem d\u00fczeyini a\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u00c7in Paracel Adalar\u0131\u2019nda f\u00fcze savunma sistemleri konu\u015fland\u0131r\u0131r ve Spratly Adalar\u0131\u2019na (Nansha Adalar\u0131) ve kayal\u0131klar\u0131 \u00fczerine doldurma y\u00f6ntemiyle u\u00e7ak pisti in\u015fa edip radar sistemleri yerle\u015ftirirken, ABD\u00a0 b\u00f6lgenin uluslararas\u0131 sularda serbest dola\u015f\u0131m \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc sa\u011flamak amac\u0131yla 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 Ekim ay\u0131ndan ba\u015flayarak, Pasifik Donanmas\u0131\u2019na ba\u011fl\u0131 gemi ve u\u00e7aklarla g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc harekete ge\u00e7irdi.<\/p>\n
ASEAN\u2019a \u00fcye Vietnam, Filipinler, Bruney ve Malezya\u2019n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, \u00c7in\u2019in s\u00fcrekli olarak kendine ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu yineledi\u011fi Tayvan Adas\u0131 y\u00f6netimi de, ayn\u0131 sularda egemenlik hakk\u0131 oldu\u011funu ileri s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. ABD\u2019\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 deniz ticaret g\u00fcvenli\u011fi arg\u00fcman\u0131yla hareket ederek \u00c7in\u2019in hak iddialar\u0131na verdi\u011fi kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kta yaln\u0131z de\u011fil. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, ASEAN bir yana, ba\u015fta b\u00f6lgedeki en \u00f6nemli m\u00fcttefiki Japonya olmak \u00fczere, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n da \u00c7in\u2019in \u2018yay\u0131lmac\u0131 hedeflerine\u2019 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k b\u00f6lgede askeri varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr k\u0131lmaya ba\u015flad\u0131lar. Bu iki \u00fclke de, t\u0131pk\u0131 ASEAN \u00fcye \u00fclkeleri gibi askeri harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7iriyor. Japonya, 2. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan bu yana \u2018pasif\u2019 ordu yap\u0131lanmas\u0131n\u0131 terk edece\u011fi sinyalini kabul edilen anayasa maddesi ile vermi\u015fti. Avustralya ise, \u00f6zellikle ihalesini Fransa\u2019n\u0131n kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 deniz alt\u0131 projesiyle Do\u011fu ve G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019nde var olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ipu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu genel durum i\u00e7erisinde, Vietnam, Filipinler, Malezya ve Bruney gibi d\u00f6rt \u00fcyesinin \u00c7in\u2019le do\u011frudan kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya gelme riski ta\u015f\u0131yan ASEAN\u2019da ortak bir politika geli\u015ftirilebilmi\u015f de\u011fil. ASEAN taraf\u0131ndan zaman zaman yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda, sorunun 1982 y\u0131l\u0131nda Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler taraf\u0131ndan kabul edilen Deniz Yasas\u0131\u2019na at\u0131fla g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler yoluyla \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme kavu\u015fturulmas\u0131na at\u0131fta bulunuluyor. Ancak \u00c7in y\u00f6netimi, bu yakla\u015f\u0131ma kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karak, ASEAN\u2019\u0131 bir blok olarak muhatap g\u00f6rmedi\u011fini defaatle a\u00e7\u0131klarken, alternatif olarak G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019nde hak iddias\u0131ndaki \u00fclkelerle sorunu \u2018teke tek\u2019 ele almak istedi\u011fini belirtiyor. Ayn\u0131 \u00c7in y\u00f6netimi, konunun BM gibi uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde de\u011ferlendirilemeyece\u011fi konusundaki \u0131srar\u0131n\u0131 da s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Filipinler\u2019in hak iddias\u0131nda bulundu\u011fu Scarborough Kayal\u0131klar\u0131 \u00fczerinde \u00c7in\u2019in 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018etkin kontrol\u2019 Filipinli bal\u0131k\u00e7\u0131 teknelerinin b\u00f6lgeden s\u00fcr\u00fclmesiyle sonu\u00e7land\u0131. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, Filipinler\u2019in Hague\u2019daki uluslararas\u0131 Tahkim Mahkemesi\u2019ne yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ba\u015fvuruyu ve de sonucunu tan\u0131mayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Kald\u0131 ki, bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te Filipinler\u2019in bu giri\u015fimi, gene ASEAN taraf\u0131ndan destek de g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f de\u011fil. ASEAN\u2019\u0131n bir ba\u015fka \u00e7eli\u015fkisi olarak dikkat \u00e7eken husus ise, \u00f6zellikle anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011fa taraf olan \u00fclkelerde askeri harcamalarda art\u0131\u015fa gidilmesi oldu.<\/p>\n
Bu noktada, ASEAN\u2019n\u0131n bir blok olarak \u00c7in kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda siyasi bir tav\u0131r alma konusundaki zaafiyeti, birlik i\u00e7erisinde ili\u015fkilerin gerginle\u015fmesi gibi bir potansiyeli de i\u00e7inde ta\u015f\u0131yor. Asl\u0131nda bu s\u00fcrecin yeni olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi hakimiyetin noktas\u0131nda 2002 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana ASEAN ve \u00c7in aras\u0131nda genel bir anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011fa ra\u011fmen, Birlik \u00fclkelerinin yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131nda sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir oryantasyon ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f de\u011fil. Ge\u00e7en \u015eubat ay\u0131nda ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Barack Obama\u2019n\u0131n Kalifornia\u2019da ASEAN liderleriyle biraraya geldi\u011fi tarihi zirve asl\u0131nda Birli\u011fi siyasi bir konsensus etraf\u0131nda bulu\u015fturma projesiydi. Uzun y\u0131llar ortak siyasi hedefler belirlemede ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olamam\u0131\u015f ASEAN \u00fclkelerini tek zirve ile hedefe ula\u015ft\u0131rmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011fu da ileri s\u00fcr\u00fclemez. Kald\u0131 ki, ABD\u2019nin bu hamlesinin ard\u0131ndan \u00c7in\u2019in de baz\u0131 tekil \u00fclkelerle g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri s\u00fcrecin tek tarafl\u0131 i\u015flemedi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u00c7in\u2019in Laos, Kambo\u00e7ya ve Bruney ile G\u00fcne\u015f \u00c7in Denizi anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u2018konsensus\u2019a varm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, ASEAN\u2019da \u015fok etkisi yaratt\u0131. Bu geli\u015fmenin \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 y\u00f6nlerinden biri ku\u015fku yok ki, Laos ve Kambo\u00e7ya gibi G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ne taraf olmayan iki \u00fclkenin \u00c7in\u2019le masaya oturmu\u015f olmas\u0131. \u00c7in D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Wang Yi\u2019nin ilgili \u00fclkelere yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ziyaretlerin ard\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan s\u00f6z konusu bu konsensus, G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ndeki kayal\u0131klar ve adalar konusunun \u00c7in ve birlik olarak ASEAN aras\u0131nda sorun te\u015fkil etmedi\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bu durum, \u00c7in\u2019in sorunun g\u00fcndem ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcnden bu yana ileri s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc arg\u00fcman\u0131n\u0131n tam kendisi olmas\u0131yla dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Bu \u00fc\u00e7 ASEAN \u00fclkesinden Kambo\u00e7ya\u2019n\u0131n 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 d\u00f6nem ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ASEAN D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanlar\u0131 Zirvesi\u2019nde, \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 baz\u0131 maddelerin de yer alaca\u011f\u0131 sonu\u00e7 bildirgesini yay\u0131nlamamas\u0131 Birlik tarihine bir ilk olarak ge\u00e7mi\u015fti. Bu anlamda, Kambo\u00e7ya\u2019n\u0131n s\u00fcre\u00e7te, adalar konusuna aktif bir taraftarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olmamakla birlikte, karar s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinde \u00c7in\u2019in yan\u0131nda yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u015fik\u00e2r.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019in ASEAN i\u00e7erisinde \u2018ciddi bir k\u0131r\u0131lma\u2019 olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilecek bu hamlesi \u00f6nemli. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, Filipinler h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin Tahkim Mahkemesi\u2019ne a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 davada nihai karar\u0131n May\u0131s ay\u0131 sonu veya Haziran ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda sonu\u00e7lanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Dava s\u00fcrecine dair zaman zaman g\u00fcndeme getirilen a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, Mahkeme\u2019nin \u00c7in\u2019in adalar \u00fczerindeki tek tarafl\u0131 hak iddias\u0131n\u0131n kabul edilmeyece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle Filipinler\u2019in adalar konusundaki y\u00fcksek sesli itiraz\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00c7in, di\u011fer b\u00f6lge \u00fclkeleriyle sahne arkas\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi politikalarla, sadece Filipinler\u2019i yaln\u0131z b\u0131rakmay\u0131 de\u011fil, ASEAN i\u00e7eisinde ortak hareket ihtimalini m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca geriletmeyi hedefliyor. Bu durumda, Tahkim Mahkemesi\u2019nden Filipinler lehine bir karar a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00c7in, ASEAN i\u00e7erisinde birlik \u00fcyelerinin ortak hareket etmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7oktan alm\u0131\u015f olacak.<\/p>\n
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