{"id":6215,"date":"2025-11-29T18:23:10","date_gmt":"2025-11-29T18:23:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/?p=6215"},"modified":"2025-11-29T18:24:12","modified_gmt":"2025-11-29T18:24:12","slug":"noelde-ukraynaya-baris-gelir-mi-will-peace-come-to-ukraine-by-christmas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/en\/noelde-ukraynaya-baris-gelir-mi-will-peace-come-to-ukraine-by-christmas\/","title":{"rendered":"Noel\u2019de Ukrayna\u2019ya bar\u0131\u015f gelir mi? \/ Will peace come to Ukraine by Christmas?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mehmet \u00d6zay 16.07.2025<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ABD\u2019nin Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ortas\u0131nda s\u00fcrmekte olan sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki yeni giri\u015fimi beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor mu?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu soru, bug\u00fcnlerde Ukrayna\u2019dan ba\u015flayarak, AB ve ABD\u2019de Senato\u2019da i\u00e7inde Cumhuriyet\u00e7ilerin de oldu\u011fu \u00fcyelerce cevab\u0131n\u0131n arad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir soru.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump y\u00f6netiminin Noel \u00f6ncesinde kapsaml\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f pl\u00e2n\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131karma \u00e7abas\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

19 Madde<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Avrupa\u2019da istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k anlam\u0131na gelen sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirmeyi ama\u00e7layan son bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcreci ve geli\u015fmeleri Trump y\u00f6netiminin ikinci \u00f6nemli giri\u015fimi olarak kabul etmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hen\u00fcz kamuoyuyla payla\u015f\u0131lmayan anla\u015fman\u0131n, 19 Madde\u2019den olu\u015ftu\u011fu ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bununla birlikte, s\u00f6z konusu ikinci s\u00fcreci \u00f6zellikle Putin ile s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesinin getirdi\u011fi rahats\u0131zl\u0131k yukar\u0131da dikkat \u00e7ekti\u011fim \u00e7evrelerde yak\u0131ndan hissediliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ABD i\u00e7 politikas\u0131 ba\u011flam\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde b\u0131rak\u0131n Demokratlar\u0131, Senato\u2019daki baz\u0131 Cumhuriyet\u00e7i  \u00fcyelerin bile, bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcreci ba\u011flam\u0131nda Rusya ile bu denli yak\u0131nla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131na ya da Putin\u2019e bu denli g\u00fcvenilmesine y\u00f6nelik ku\u015fkular\u0131 gayet a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zay\u0131f bir bar\u0131\u015f pl\u00e2n\u0131n\u0131n ya da Putin\u2019in jeo-politik arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kartacak bir bar\u0131\u015f pl\u00e2n\u0131n\u0131n ABD\u2019ye ve de Trump y\u00f6netimine getirilerinin hesapland\u0131\u011f\u0131na tan\u0131k olunuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u00f6z konusu ele\u015ftirilerin halen s\u00fcrgit devam etmesi, Trump\u2019\u0131n kendisine y\u00f6neltilen alternatif g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri dikkate alma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir e\u011filim sergilemedi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu durum, bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcreci g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde Trump\u2019\u0131n tekelinde s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn bir ba\u015fka a\u00e7\u0131dan izah\u0131 gibi…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Asl\u0131nda, benzeri bir yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u00f6nceki s\u00fcre\u00e7te de g\u00f6zlemleniyordu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alaska\u2019daki, Trump-Putin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesini ve sonras\u0131nda olanlar\u0131 hat\u0131rlayal\u0131m…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vance etkisi<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bug\u00fcn, ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan ismin ba\u015fkan yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance olmas\u0131, bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerindeki yeni s\u00fcreci ona yak\u0131n bir isim olan silahl\u0131 kuvvetler sekreteri Dan Driscoll\u2019un y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcyor olmas\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130lgili a\u00e7\u0131klamalara yak\u0131ndan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ba\u015fkan yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Vance ad\u0131n\u0131n \u2018\u015fahinlerle\u2019 an\u0131lmas\u0131, ona yak\u0131n isimlerin Ukrayna bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecine dahil olmas\u0131n\u0131n ku\u015fkuyla kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131, yeter bir neden gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bununla birlikte, Beyaz Saray\u2019\u0131n son bir hafta i\u00e7erisinde Ukrayna ile yeniden diyalog s\u00fcrecine tan\u0131k olunuyor…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu geli\u015fmenin, yukar\u0131da vurgulanan ele\u015ftirilerle do\u011frudan bir ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131 m\u0131 oldu\u011fu, yoksa, Trump y\u00f6netiminin, \u201cZaten biz Putin\u2019le anla\u015fd\u0131k, \u015fimdi s\u0131ra Zelensky\u2019i iknada\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir yakla\u015f\u0131m m\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131z.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Son geli\u015fmeleri ortaya koyan bu ifadeler bize ortada iki farkl\u0131 denklemin yani, Trump-Putin, Trump-Zelensky denkleminin oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump ve y\u00f6netimi bir yandan, Putin\u2019le g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri yo\u011fun bir \u015fekilde s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, ikna s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde, Zelensky \u00fczerinde olu\u015fturulacak bask\u0131larla ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir intiba var.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu y\u00f6ndeki politik yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131kla sonu\u00e7land\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nceki s\u00fcre\u00e7te g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beyaz Saray\u2019da, t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00f6zleri \u00f6n\u00fcnde Zelensky\u2019i ve de \u00fclkesini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131larcas\u0131na sorgulamaya matuf g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmenin benzerinin bu sefer ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p \u00e7\u0131kmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bir garantisi yok.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zorlu s\u00fcre\u00e7<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yukar\u0131da sunulan bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri form\u00fclasyonunda Putin ve Zelensky\u2019i ayn\u0131 kare i\u00e7erisinde g\u00f6rememek hi\u00e7 ku\u015fku yok ki, bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinin en onulmaz hatalar\u0131ndan birini te\u015fkil ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019\u0131n, bu bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinden talebinin salt Ukrayna\u2019ya bar\u0131\u015f gelmesi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u015fik\u00e2r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bir yandan, Rusya ile ili\u015fkileri d\u00fczenltme \u00f6te yandan, Ukrayna \u00fczerinden Avrupa\u2019da siyasi varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hissettirme amac\u0131nda oldu\u011funa ku\u015fku olmayan Trump\u2019\u0131n, son bir y\u0131ld\u0131r g\u00fcndeme getirdi\u011fi bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcreci bug\u00fcne kadar ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilmi\u015f de\u011fil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yukar\u0131da dikkat \u00e7ekilen 19 maddelik yeni bar\u0131\u015f pl\u00e2n\u0131n\u0131n Noel \u00f6ncesinde tamamlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ise, zaman k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile taraflar\u0131 \u00f6zellikle de, bug\u00fcnlerdeki geli\u015fmelere bak\u0131l\u0131rsa, Zelensky\u2019i karara varmalar\u0131 i\u00e7in zorlay\u0131c\u0131 bir etken olarak g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Var olan 19 madde \u00fczerinde Zelensky\u2019nin kabul\u00fc veya reddinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, t\u0131pk\u0131 \u00f6nceki s\u00fcre\u00e7te oldu\u011funa benzer \u015fekilde, Zelensky\u2019nin kayda de\u011fer bir \u015fekilde m\u00fcdahalede bulunaca\u011f\u0131 anla\u015fma maddeleri \u00fczerinde, bu sefer Putin\u2019in ne diyece\u011fine s\u0131ra gelecek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019\u0131n, ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir a\u00e7\u0131klama, ya\u015fanan s\u00fcrecin neye tekab\u00fcl etti\u011fini g\u00f6stermesi bakam\u0131ndan dikkat \u00e7ekici.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNihai olarak sava\u015f son verecek anla\u015fma metnini ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 halinde, Putin ve Zelensky g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirebiliriz\u201d ifadesi, Trump\u2019\u0131n ve bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecini y\u00f6netenlerin, ne t\u00fcr bir zorlukla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya bulunduklar\u0131n\u0131 gizli\/a\u00e7\u0131k ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Asl\u0131nda, son bir y\u0131ld\u0131r olan biten de, tam da bu…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Basitle\u015ftirerek s\u00f6ylemek gerekirse bir t\u00fcr pinpong oyununa tan\u0131k oluyoruz…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yukar\u0131da dikkat \u00e7ekmi\u015ftim… Bir \u00f6nceki s\u00fcrecin kazan\u0131n\u0131 Putin\u2019di… Bu konuda kimsenin \u015f\u00fcphesi yok diyebiliriz…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Noel\u2019e kadar tan\u0131nan s\u00fcrecin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemesi halinde, geli\u015fmeleri bir ba\u015fka y\u00f6nden de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fimizde, bu sefer, ortada kaybeden ki\u015finin kim oldu\u011fu sorusunu sormaya s\u0131ra gelecektir.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ya da, Noel\u2019e kadar anla\u015fma belgesi ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lsa bile ard\u0131ndan, k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda, olas\u0131 bir Putin-Zelensky g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesinin yap\u0131lamayacak olmas\u0131 da, bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinin akamete u\u011framas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelece\u011fine ku\u015fku yok.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, s\u00fcrece kimin k\u00f6stek oldu\u011fu pek de b\u00fcy\u00fck bir anlam ifade etmeyecek ve yukar\u0131da dile getirdi\u011fim \u201csorumlu kim?\u201d sorusuna cevap aranmaya ba\u015flanacak ki, buna verilebilecek cevap \u2018Trump\u2019 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu cevab\u0131 bizzat, Trump\u2019\u0131n bizzat kendisinin vermesini beklemek bile m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mehmet \u00d6zay                                                                                                                  29.11.2025 ABD\u2019nin Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ortas\u0131nda s\u00fcrmekte olan sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki yeni giri\u015fimi beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor mu? Bu soru, bug\u00fcnlerde Ukrayna\u2019dan ba\u015flayarak, AB ve ABD\u2019de Senato\u2019da i\u00e7inde Cumhuriyet\u00e7ilerin de oldu\u011fu \u00fcyelerce cevab\u0131n\u0131n arad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir soru. Trump y\u00f6netiminin Noel \u00f6ncesinde kapsaml\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f pl\u00e2n\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131karma \u00e7abas\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. 19 Madde Avrupa\u2019da istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k anlam\u0131na gelen sava\u015f\u0131 […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":6216,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6215","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-asya-pasifik","category-gunluk-yazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6215","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6215"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6215\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6216"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6215"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6215"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guneydoguasyacalismalari.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6215"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}