Kuzey Kore (KK), n\u00fckleer f\u00fcze denemeleriyle k\u00fcresel medyada yer almaya devam ediyor. Bir ba\u015fka deyi\u015fle, kap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 d\u0131\u015f d\u00fcnyaya kapatan son birka\u00e7 \u00fclkeden biri konumundaki KK\u2019n\u0131n d\u00fcnya kamuoyu i\u00e7in anlam\u0131 sadece deneyegeldi\u011fi f\u00fczelerle ili\u015fkilendirilen bir \u00fclkeden \u00f6teye ge\u00e7miyor. Bu f\u00fczelerin ba\u015fta kom\u015fu ve \u0131rkda\u015f \u00fclke G\u00fcney Kore ile Japonya kadar ABD\u2019yi de hedef almas\u0131, s\u00fcreci ba\u015fta ABD olmak \u00fczere Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in de \u00f6nemli bir tehdit alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesinde ger\u00e7ek bir tehdide d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle, 9 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen be\u015finci denemenin bug\u00fcne kadarki en b\u00fcy\u00fck deneme olmas\u0131, \u00f6zelde Kore Yar\u0131madas\u0131, Do\u011fu \u00c7in Denizi ve genel itibar\u0131yla Asya-Pasifik\u2019de g\u00fcvenlik politikalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemini giderek art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, uluslararas\u0131 medya taraf\u0131ndan KK\u2019n\u0131n k\u00fcresel bir tehdit te\u015fkil etti\u011fi alg\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015fturulmas\u0131na tan\u0131k olunuyor. Bunun sebebi de KK\u2019nin kendini d\u0131\u015f d\u00fcnyaya kapatmas\u0131, bir ba\u015fka deyi\u015fle i\u00e7e kapanmas\u0131 ve bu siyasi korumac\u0131l\u0131k politikas\u0131n\u0131n bir g\u00f6stergesi olarak ve de Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u2018\u00fczerine geldi\u011fi\u2019 veya \u2018k\u00f6\u015feye s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmak istedi\u011fi\u2019 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesiyle agresif bir \u015fekilde f\u00fcze denemeleriyle d\u00fcnyaya meydan okumas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu geli\u015fme kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Bat\u0131l\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7ler ve b\u00f6lgedeki m\u00fcttefikleri de bu tehdidi bertaraf etmenin yollar\u0131n\u0131 ar\u0131yorlar. Bu noktada, BM\u2019de d\u00fczenlenen y\u0131ll\u0131k genel kurul toplant\u0131s\u0131 b\u00f6lge liderlerinin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini d\u00fcnya kamuoyuyla payla\u015fma noktas\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir platform oldu.<\/p>\n
Kom\u00fcnist elit sultas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n N\u00fckleer silah \u00fcretimi s\u00fcrecinin \u00f6tesinde, kom\u00fcnist bir rejime konu olan KK\u2019n\u0131n siyasi yap\u0131s\u0131 ve b\u00fcrokrasisi gibi konularda bilgi k\u0131s\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 mevcut. Yak\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fe kadar, ba\u015fta \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc d\u00fcnya toplumlar\u0131 olmak \u00fczere k\u00fcresel anlamda epeyce bir sempatizan\u0131 oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilecek kom\u00fcnizm ideolojisinin bug\u00fcn temsil edildi\u011fi KK\u2019ye ne somut ne teorik bir ilgi ve al\u00e2ka beslendi\u011fi iddia edilebilir. Kendini So\u011fuk Sava\u015f d\u00f6nemi \u015fartlar\u0131nda Bat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131na endekslemi\u015f \u00fclkenin bug\u00fcnk\u00fc siyasi duru\u015funu, Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u2018tehditleri\u2019 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda kendi fiziki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korumakta bulan ve bunu da n\u00fckleer silah \u00fcretimiyle ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir siyasi elit mekanizmas\u0131 belirliyor. \u00d6yle ki, k\u00fcresel kamuoyu sadece at\u0131lan f\u00fczeleri izleyen ve ard\u0131ndan intikamc\u0131 duygulara b\u00fcr\u00fcnerek \u2018s\u0131r\u0131tan\u2019 gen\u00e7 lider Kim Jong-un\u2018dan ba\u015fka bir siyasi fig\u00fcre de \u00f6yle kolay kolay tan\u0131k olam\u0131yor.<\/p>\n \u00d6te yandan, toplumsal ve k\u00fclt\u00fcrel yap\u0131s\u0131 hakk\u0131nda bir\u015feyler bilmek bir yana g\u00fcndelik ya\u015fam\u0131na dair de elle tutulur bilgilere ula\u015fmak ise neredeyse m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Ancak \u00e7e\u015fitli uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n de\u011ferlendirmelerine g\u00f6re sosyal ya\u015fam\u0131n kom\u00fcnist partisi lider sultas\u0131na endeksli bir y\u00f6nelim sergiledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bir k\u0131stas olabilece\u011finden hareketle, \u00fclkede sadece 28 internet sitesinin olmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fckler, modernle\u015fme gibi kom\u015fu \u00fclkelerin teneff\u00fcs etti\u011fi s\u00fcre\u00e7leri dahi izleme imk\u00e2n\u0131ndan yoksun oldu\u011fu anla\u015f\u0131lan \u00fclkede toplumun en az\u0131ndan baz\u0131 kesimlerinin a\u00e7l\u0131k ve yoksullukla bo\u011fu\u015ftuklar\u0131 ortada. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ad\u0131nda \u2018Demokratik\u2019, \u2018Halk\u2019 kavramlar\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bir devlet yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ve bunun toplumsal ve\u00e7hesinin neye tekab\u00fcl etti\u011fi malum de\u011fil.<\/p>\n Kuzey Kore: izole \u00fclke<\/strong><\/p>\n Tam ad\u0131yla ifade edecek olursak Kuzey Kore Demokratik Halk Cumhuriyeti, yak\u0131n d\u00f6neme kadar, d\u00fcnyaya kapal\u0131 olmas\u0131 ba\u011flam\u0131nda ad\u0131 Myanmar ve K\u00fcba, n\u00fckleer denemeleri sadedinde ise \u0130ran\u2019la birlikte an\u0131l\u0131yordu. Bununla birlikte, ad\u0131 ge\u00e7en bu \u00fclkelerde i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f fakt\u00f6rlerce ya\u015fanan de\u011fi\u015fimlerin neticesinde KK giderek daha da yaln\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131 ve belki de d\u00fcnya genelinde yeg\u00e2ne \u2018izole\u2019 \u00fclke g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde. Ad\u0131 ge\u00e7en bu \u00fclkelerin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmac\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemin ard\u0131ndan, uluslararas\u0131 kabul edilen normlar\u0131 benimsemelerine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k KK y\u00f6netiminin \u00fcst \u00fcste ortaya koydu\u011fu icraatlarla BM s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerini ihl\u00e2li, bu \u00fclkeye yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 ve hatta m\u00fcdahalenin bile g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fini akla getiriyor. Bu noktada, son d\u00f6nemde tan\u0131k olundu\u011fu \u00fczere, KK\u2019n\u0131n tehdidine maruz kalan ilgili \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda askeri i\u015fbirlikleri art\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor ve askeri tatbikatlar \u015feklinde bir g\u00fc\u00e7 g\u00f6sterisi sergileniyor. \u00d6te yandan, BM genel kurul toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Japonya ve G\u00fcney Kore temsilcileri yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar konusunu bir kez daha y\u00fcksek sesle g\u00fcndeme getirdiler. Japonya Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Abe \u2018art\u0131k dayan\u0131lmaz bir h\u00e2l alan KK tehdidine kar\u015f\u0131 b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle farkl\u0131 bir tepki verilmesi\u2019 \u00fczerinde dururken, G\u00fcney Kore d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakan\u0131 da KK\u2019nin BM \u00fcyeli\u011finden \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nerdi.<\/p>\n N\u00fckleer denemeler riski art\u0131r\u0131yor<\/strong><\/p>\n KK, farkl\u0131 nedenlerle de olsa Bat\u0131\u2019ya \u2018kafa tutan\u2019 yukar\u0131da ad\u0131 ge\u00e7en \u00fclkelerle ayn\u0131 kategoride yer al\u0131rken, daha \u00e7ok n\u00fckleer i\u015fbirli\u011fi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde ili\u015fkileri yo\u011fun denetim alt\u0131nda tutuluyordu. \u00d6rne\u011fin, G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi, Malaka Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve Hint Okyanusu g\u00fczerg\u00e2h\u0131 \u00fczerinden \u0130ran\u2019la yap\u0131lacak bir i\u015fbirli\u011finin tehdit boyutuna oldu\u011funca dikkat \u00e7ekiliyordu. Myanmar\u2019\u0131n demokratikle\u015fme s\u00fcrecini ar\u015f\u0131nlamaya ba\u015flamas\u0131, ABD-K\u00fcba ili\u015fkilerinin normalle\u015fme seyri, AB ve ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019la n\u00fckleer \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 kontrol anla\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u2018Kuzey Kore art\u0131k tehdit olamaz\u2019 denilebilecek bir arg\u00fcmana sahip oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilirse de, asl\u0131nda ger\u00e7ek pek de b\u00f6yle de\u011fil. Aksine KK, n\u00fckleer denemelerine giderek daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verirken, tehdit unsuru da buna paralel olarak art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steriyor. Bu noktada, KK\u2019nin bu askeri varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n arka pl\u00e2n\u0131nda hangi \u00fclkenin yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorusu ortaya at\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Bu noktada, hi\u00e7 ku\u015fku yok ki, akla birincil derecede kom\u015fu \u00fclke, belki de d\u0131\u015f d\u00fcnyayla do\u011frudan irtibatl\u0131 oldu\u011fu tek \u00fclke, \u00c7in geliyor. KK y\u00f6netiminin, yan\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki \u00c7in\u2019den ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fu veya bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcdeki destek devam etti\u011fi m\u00fcddet\u00e7e hem kap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 d\u0131\u015f d\u00fcnyaya kapatmaya hem de n\u00fckleer denemelere devam edecektir. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, KK hen\u00fcz y\u00fcksek kapasiteli n\u00fckleer, hidrojen bombalar\u0131 \u00fcretememi\u015f olsa dahi, son denemenin de ortaya koydu\u011fu \u00fczere bu y\u00f6ndeki \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n \u2018ba\u015far\u0131yla\u2019 devam\u0131, Bat\u0131 ve b\u00f6lgedeki m\u00fcttefiklerinin maruz kald\u0131klar\u0131 risk oran\u0131 giderek art\u0131yor. Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerin d\u0131\u015f politikalar\u0131n\u0131 temelde bu t\u00fcr riskleri dikkate alarak y\u00f6nlendirdikleri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ba\u015fta ABD olmak \u00fczere bu \u00e7evrelerin hedefinde KK\u2019yi art\u0131k bir tehdit unsuru olmayacak bir yap\u0131ya evirmek olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n \u00c7in ve \u2018Alt\u0131lar\u2019 toplant\u0131s\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n Bunun i\u00e7in sadece ABD-G\u00fcney Kore-Japonya askeri ve istihbarat i\u015fbirli\u011fi de\u011fil, KK \u00fczerinde siyasi bask\u0131 mekanizmas\u0131 kurabilecek \u00c7in bulunuyor. \u00c7in y\u00f6netimi, Kore Yar\u0131madas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n n\u00fckleer silahlardan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 politikalar\u0131na s\u0131cak bakarken, aralar\u0131nda ABD, Japonya, \u00c7in, Rusya, Kuzey Kore ve G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin bulundu\u011fu alt\u0131lar toplant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flat\u0131lmas\u0131nda ve konunun \u2018bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l\u2019 y\u00f6ntemlerle \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcnde \u0131srarc\u0131. Ancak burada ciddi bir tenakuz oldu\u011fu da g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ge\u00e7en Temmuz ay\u0131nda Pekin\u2019de yap\u0131lan Kuzeydo\u011fu Asya \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi Diyalo\u011fu (NEACD) toplant\u0131s\u0131na kat\u0131lan KK d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yetkilisinin \u2018alt\u0131lar toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019 y\u00f6nl\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131 ve KK y\u00f6netiminin ge\u00e7en May\u0131s ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lan 7. \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi Kongresi\u2019nde ald\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u2018n\u00fckleer silahlardan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n anayasaya ayk\u0131r\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019 karar\u0131n\u0131 \u00c7in y\u00f6netimi g\u00f6z ard\u0131 ediyor olamaz. KK y\u00f6netimi, ABD\u2019nin alt\u0131lar grubu toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda \u00fclkede n\u00fckleer silahlanman\u0131n sonland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 talebine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, bunu bir yapt\u0131r\u0131m olarak kabul ediyor. Alternatif olarak ise, \u2018t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131\u2019 \u015fart\u0131n\u0131 masaya yat\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu noktada, \u00c7in\u2019den \u2018arabuluculuk\u2019 beklentileri, \u00f6ncelikle KK y\u00f6netiminin bu arg\u00fcman\u0131 \u00fczerinde yap\u0131c\u0131 bir giri\u015fimde bulunmas\u0131yla ba\u015flamas\u0131yla ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r. Bu noktada Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ve de m\u00fcttefiklerinin alternatif aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da yok de\u011fil. \u00d6rne\u011fin, Japon Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Abe bu konuda destek aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ziyareti s\u0131ras\u0131nda K\u00fcba y\u00f6netimiyle payla\u015ft\u0131. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, k\u0131smen de olsa Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da bir rol oynayabilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bu noktada Rusya\u2019n\u0131n MIG 29 ve SU-25 sava\u015f u\u00e7aklar\u0131yla KK\u2019ya askeri deste\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekmek gerekir.<\/p>\n ABD ve b\u00f6lgesel silahlanma s\u00fcreci<\/strong><\/p>\n Bununla birlikte, ABD, Uzak Do\u011fu ve Asya-Pasifik\u2019de g\u00fcvenlik politikalar\u0131 geli\u015ftirirken \u00f6nceli\u011fi G\u00fcney Kore-Japonya gibi m\u00fcttefikleriyle askeri i\u015fbirliklerini art\u0131rmaya veriyor. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Barack Obama, G\u00fcney Kore devlet ba\u015fkan\u0131 Park Geun-hye\u2019nin ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ABD\u2019ye yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ziyarette bu hususa a\u00e7\u0131k se\u00e7ik ortaya koymu\u015f ve ABD\u2019nin Asya-Pasifik\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi politikalar\u0131ndaki merkezi rol\u00fcne dikkat \u00e7ekmi\u015fti. Ancak bu s\u00fcrecin \u00c7in ve Rusya taraf\u0131ndan yeni bir tehdit alg\u0131s\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131na da tan\u0131k olunuyor. \u00d6zellikle ABD y\u00f6netiminin ge\u00e7en Temmuz ay\u0131nda, G\u00fcney Kore\u2019de yeni f\u00fcze savunma sistemleri yerle\u015ftirece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geli\u015fmeler ilgili \u00fclkelerce dikkatle izleniyor. Bu nedenle, s\u00f6z konusu bu iki \u00fclkenin bir anlamda KK \u00fczerinden ABD ile Uzak Do\u011fu b\u00f6lgesinde mesafeli bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcrecini kollayarak s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir hale ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek bile m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. \u00d6zellikle \u00c7in\u2019in, G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ndeki anla\u015fmazl\u0131klarda b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinin ABD ile askeri ittifaklar\u0131n\u0131 geli\u015ftirmeleri ve bunu prati\u011fe d\u00f6ken giri\u015fimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ABD\u2019yi b\u00f6lgede bar\u0131\u015f ve huzuru bozacak faaliyetlerin m\u00fcsebbibi olarak g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi unutulmamal\u0131.<\/p>\n K\u00fcresel ekonominin atardamar\u0131 olan ve bu hususta \u00f6nemini devam ettiren Do\u011fu ve G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya b\u00f6lgesinde KK, istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k nedeni olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u015eimdilik kendinde bir de\u011fi\u015fim alameti g\u00f6stermeyen KK, ABD kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan beslenen savunmac\u0131 bir siyasetle kendini n\u00fckleer silahlara teslim ediyor.<\/p>\n